Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME
Issued by NWS Portland, ME
741 FXUS61 KGYX 140626 AFDGYX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 226 AM EDT Sun Sep 14 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will bring a slight chance for showers today. High pressure builds in Monday and will hold over New England through much of the week. Temperatures will moderate through the week and with continued dry weather, drought conditions will deepen. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... Mid level cloud deck is moving thru the forecast area this morning with some isolated showers embedded within it. The most impactful thing about this cloud deck is that it will keep temps from falling too fast and prevent valley fog from forming like past mornings. Models do suggest that some moisture advection ahead of the front may lead to a small area of fog/stratus forming over the Midcoast...but it is not anticipated to last much longer than sunrise. This afternoon the cold pool moving overhead will help to destabilize the atmosphere during peak heating. So another round of isolated showers will be possible...especially across western ME. It will not be nearly widespread or heavy enough to alleviate drought conditions. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... As high pressure builds back into the region that will promote radiational cooling and valley fog. I have maintained mention of patchy fog for all major valleys. Otherwise fair weather is expected Mon along with warm temps. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Evening Long Term Update...Main story in the long term continues to be the strong area of high pressure taking up residence for the first half of the week. 500mb height anomalies are near max per 3 week centered climo across central Quebec, and this aids in bringing a MSLP anomaly closer to ME/NH Monday night into Tuesday. As a result, continued to blend cooler guidance in to going forecast. Radiational cooling will bring temps down, but background values won`t be as cool as this week to start. This high slowly drifts east through late week, with return flow advecting moisture back into the region. This could equate to some light precipitation, but wetting rain looks unlikely at this time. Previous Discussion... High pressure dominates the weather pattern through the long term period leading to continued fair weather and worsening drought conditions. Temperatures will gradually moderate through the week with highs into the 70s to mid 80s and lows generally in the 40s. An upper low will meander over the Mid Atlantic the second half of the week. The majority of recent model solutions keep any rainfall from this system south of the area as the system tracks east into the Atlantic next weekend. Looking beyond the forecast period there are limited to no signals for a pattern change with the latest 8 to 14 day outlook from CPC showing odds favoring below normal precipitation. && .AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Short Term...Area of mid level clouds will swing thru the forecast are this morning. That will keep much of the valley fog at bay...but ahead of the front some moisture advection may lead to a developing stratus deck over the Midcoast. Confidence is low on whether this will affect any TAF site...but it is expected to be near AUG and RKD. Likewise SHRA are expected to be isolated and as a result confidence they affect any TAF site is low. Otherwise VFR conditions prevail during the day...with local IFR or lower conditions tonight in valley fog. Long Term...Mainly VFR through the period. Conditions will be favorable for nighttime valley fog most nights that will likely bring IFR/LIFR to KLEB and KHIE. && .MARINE... Short Term...Winds and seas will remain below SCA thresholds. A weak front will cross the waters today. Immediately ahead of the front around daybreak there may be fog and stratus that develops near Penobscot Bay. There may be a few isolated showers this afternoon...but otherwise dry and fair weather. Long Term...Winds and seas remain below SCA thresholds with high pressure over the waters for much of next week. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. NH...None. MARINE...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...Legro SHORT TERM...Legro LONG TERM...Cornwell/Schroeter