391
FXUS61 KGYX 261115
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
615 AM EST Wed Nov 26 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Light rain will persist through this morning as low pressure
tracks west of New England. A cold front crosses tonight into
Thursday, bringing blustery conditions for Thanksgiving through
the holiday weekend. Another cold front approaches later in the
day on Sunday. Some mixed wintry precipitation is possible
Sunday night across the portions of the interior as the next
wave of low pressure arrives.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
615 AM Update...The bulk of the precipitation is pushing off the
coast now with fog forming in areas where the rain has tapered
off. The main focus of the update was to refine PoPs and use
showery wording for the rest of the day. Otherwise, just loaded
in the latest observations as the forecast remains on track.

Previous Discussion...
Low pressure moving across the upper Great Lakes will continue
to send a sfc warm front northward across New England this
morning, allowing for continued light rain. This rain will
become more showery in nature later today as the warm front
lifts northward and an occluded front develops over the region.
Skies will remain mainly cloudy but a few peaks of sunshine are
possible this afternoon, mainly across southern locations.
Patchy fog is likely across the interior. A wide range in high
temperatures is expected with readings ranging from the 40s
across the north and foothills to the 50s along the coast and in
southern NH. A few spots could approach the 60 degree mark.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Rain chances will increase again this evening through the first
half of the night as a weak wave of low pressure rides along the
lingering frontal boundary. This rain will gradually become
mostly confined to the north and mountains after midnight with
low temperatures into the 30s and 40s. A transition to snow is
possible towards dawn on Thursday across the mountains and near
the Canadian Border.

Cyclonic flow will prevail on Thursday with westerly wind gusts
between 25-30 mph possible. It will otherwise be a mainly dry
day with mainly cloudy skies across the north and partly cloudy
skies further to the south. High temperatures will be into the
30s and 40s from north to south.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Key Messages:
* Cold and breezy through the holiday weekend bringing cold wind
  chill temperatures
* Potential for mixed precipitation across the interior on Sunday
  night
* Watching the potential for another mixed precipitation storm
  that could impact coastal areas with the first widespread
  frozen precipitation of the season. Large model spread exists,
  but pattern evolution supports the potential.

Forecast Details: Upper level polar low over Quebec province pivots
into New England on Friday, bring the core of the polar air and
instability to the region. This will bring westerly backing to
northwesterly upslope snow shower activity to the mountains with
blustery conditions straight through Friday night. Pattern
supports accumulating snow in the favorable mountain locations.
Also expect wind chill temperatures down into the teens to
single digits Friday night. Shortwave ridging expected on
Saturday into Saturday night with surface high pressure bringing
a nice cold day and no sensible weather impacts except for the
cold. Return flow expected by Sunday as surface ridge quickly
moves offshore, cold airmass in place, so an overrunning event
looks likely at this point. Will be transitioning precipitation
types on Sunday night, with a wintry mix in store before turning over
to rain for most areas. Back to a polar airmass quickly on
Monday with blustery conditions. What happens towards the end
the extended forecast is still to be determined, but the flow
will either be suppressed with the storm track across the Mid-
Atlantic and very cold or there will be a coastal storm nearby
and less cold. Will have to see how things trend.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Short Term...IFR-LIFR restrictions due to low ceilings and -RA
will persist through at least this morning but MVFR-IFR
restrictions will likely last through tonight in most locations
due to continued low ceilings and light rain at times.
Conditions will then improve on Thursday back to VFR, although
MVFR CIGS could persist at KHIE with developing westerly flow.
Westerly wind gusts up to around 25kts are possible on Thursday
with light and variable flow today into tonight.

Long Term...VFR conditions Friday through Sunday for most TAF
locations south of the mountains. Tempo IFR conditions are possible
north of the mountains in snow shower activity on Friday. Do expect
gusty conditions at all TAF terminals from the west and northwest.
By Saturday winds will slacken and snow shower activity will come to
an end. IFR conditions possible by Sunday night as the next warm
front brings a period of mixed precipitation and low ceilings.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...Southerly flow will persist today with gusts up to
30 kts outside of the bays through this morning. Seas of 2-4 ft
are expected outside of the bays with 1-3 ft in the bays. Winds
will become SW-W tonight into Thursday and increase with gusts
up to around 35 kts possible outside of the bays with 25 kts in
the bays. Seas will build to 3-7 ft across the outer waters with
1-3 ft in the bays.

Long Term...West to northwesterly gales are looking to continue Friday
through the night as a tight pressure gradient sets up with low
pressure to the north over Quebec. High pressure brings a brief
period of improvement Saturday night and the first part of Sunday
before a southerly flow increases ahead of a cold front that looks
to cross Sunday night or early Monday. There may be a period at
SCA on the southerly flow with possible gale conditions again by
the beginning of next week.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for ANZ150-
     152-154.
     Gale Watch from Thursday afternoon through Saturday morning
     for ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Baron/Tubbs
SHORT TERM...Tubbs
LONG TERM...Dumont