021
FXUS61 KGYX 061748 CCA
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
148 PM EDT Mon Oct 6 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure starts to shift offshore tonight with one more
warm and dry day Tuesday. A cold front crosses Tuesday night
through Wednesday morning bringing widespread rainfall. A cooler
and drier airmass arrives of gusty NW winds Wednesday afternoon
with high pressure providing fair weather into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
The strong ridge of high pressure still has a tight grip on New
England with full sunshine and near record warmth once again in
some areas. As of 130 PM, Portland`s latest temperature was 85
degrees and Augusta`s was 84 degrees, which sets a new daily
record high for both of these sites (see climate section below
for more info).

The ridge will then start shifting to the east through tonight
as a cold front moves across the Great Lakes, and the WAA well
out ahead of the front will keep temperatures pretty mild, in
the 40s and 50s. Have again included patchy valley fog in the
forecast with light winds and mostly clear skies.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Tuesday will again feature very warm and mostly dry weather,
but the pressure gradient will tighten as the cold front
approaches the region, making for breezier conditions in the
afternoon. Based on forecast soundings, gusts of 20-25 mph are
likely, possibly up to 30 mph along the coast. With the
exception of the Midcoast, highs will reach the upper 70s to low
80s. The morning will start mostly sunny, but clouds will be on
the increase during the afternoon.

The mountains could start seeing a few showers and possibly a
storm late in the afternoon, but then a more widespread soaking
rain is expected Tuesday evening through Tuesday night as the
cold front starts moving through. Based on latest CAMS, rain
looks to arrive across western and northern areas during the
evening and then spreading to the south and east through the
course of Tuesday night. Forecast rainfall amounts are mostly
0.50" to 0.75" and possibly up to an inch on the higher end.
While this rain will be most welcome, it is unlikely to bring
any improvement to the ongoing drought.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A cold front pushes offshore Wednesday morning with a cooler
and drier airmass arriving on gusty northwest winds Wednesday
afternoon. High pressure builds over New England Thursday into
Friday with the coldest night of the season for most areas
Thursday night. Mostly fair weather continues into the weekend
with moderating temperatures. Low pressure off the Southeast
coast may track far enough north to bring chances for rain late
in the weekend.

Mesoscale models are in decent agreement that rainfall will be
ongoing Wednesday morning with the forecast area turning dry
from NW to SE by the afternoon. Cold air advection behind the
front will favor mixing with northwest winds gusting around 30
MPH Wednesday afternoon. Downsloping will aid in boosting
temperatures close to 70 degrees along the coast while northern
areas may stay in the 50s for highs. Lows Wednesday night will
range from the upper 20s north to upper 30s south.

High pressure builds in Thursday allowing for fair weather and
a downward trend in northwest winds. Highs on Thursday will only
top out around 50 degrees across the north and 60 degrees near
the coast. Conditions will become favorable for efficient
radiational cooling and with a cool airmass in place, many areas
will likely see the coldest night of the season. Lows will
range from the low 20s north to low 30s south with frost
possible to the coastal zones and freezes across the interior.
Temperatures rebound into the lows 60s Friday and mid to upper
60s Saturday. A cutoff low over the Southeast may migrate
northwards over the weekend bringing a chance for rain back into
the forecast Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Short Term...VFR the rest of today. Valley fog will then likely
bring restrictions to LEB tonight into Tuesday morning but
could also bring restrictions to other sites as well. Once fog
clears by 13-14Z Tuesday, VFR the rest of the day before a cold
front brings a round of rainfall into the area Tuesday evening
through Tuesday night with MVFR to IFR restrictions possible.

Long Term...Ongoing rain and low cigs likely continue
restrictions Wednesday morning with conditions improving to VFR
Wednesday afternoon. VFR likely prevails through the end of the
week outside of nighttime valley fog.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...South to southwest flow will gradually increase as
a cold front approaches from the west, but conditions look to
stay under SCA levels until late Tuesday morning or afternoon.
SCA conditions are then expected through Tuesday night,
especially over the outer waters.

Long Term...Cold air advection behind a front crossing the
waters Wednesday morning will bring SCA conditions Wednesday
into Thursday morning. High pressure builds in Thursday
afternoon and holds over the waters through Friday.

&&

.CLIMATE...
In addition to today`s potential records, one more day of above
normal temperatures area expected tomorrow. Here are some of
the records to watch.

                 Oct 6       Oct 7
Concord         84(1990)    90(1963)
Manchester      82(2007)    82(2005)
Portland        84(1947)    84(1947)
Augusta         78(1963)    83(1990)

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Tuesday to 8 AM EDT Wednesday
     for ANZ150-152-154.
     Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM Tuesday to 8 AM EDT Wednesday
     for ANZ151-153.

&&

$$


NEAR TERM...Combs
SHORT TERM...Combs
LONG TERM...Schroeter