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FXHW60 PHFO 201454 CCA
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
454 AM HST Thu Nov 20 2025

.SYNOPSIS...

Breezy to locally windy trades will persist through today before
weakening to light to locally breezy over the weekend. Expect
showers to focus mainly over windward and mauka areas with some
showers spilling over to leeward locations today. Mid level
drying will limit clouds and showers Friday into early next week.
Easing trade winds over the weekend could allow for more of a
hybrid land/sea breeze pattern. Drier moderate trades should
return Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Satellite imagery shows mid and high clouds streaming over the
state from southwest to northeast early this morning and a band of low
level clouds moving from east to west just east of the state.
Radar imagery also shows scattered light to moderate showers
embedded within this band of clouds that will push west this
morning. CIMSS PWAT imagery shows drier air behind this band
clouds. In addition, the soundings this morning also show drier
air infiltrating in the low to mid levels that will limit showers
to more light to moderate intensities today. Overnight ASCAT pass
also showed that this band is on the leading edge of slightly
stronger winds. Thus can expect breezy to locally windy trades to
continue through today with clouds and showers mainly focused
along windward and mauka areas, some showers may still spill over
to leeward areas at times. A Winter Weather Advisory remains in
effect through this morning as temperatures and elevated moisture
will bring period of light snow to the summits. Conditions are
expected to improve shortly after sunrise and with the drying
trend this advisory maybe cancelled later this morning.

A surface high far northeast of the state that is generating the
breezy trade winds will begin track east and weaken tonight
through the weekend as a front passes north of the state. Friday
trade winds will taper to more typical trade wind speeds and the
drier airmass will continue to fill in limiting clouds and
showers mainly to windward and mauka locations. Mid to upper level
clouds will still create partly to mostly cloudy conditions.

By Saturday a hybrid trade wind and sea breeze pattern could
develop. Mid to upper level clouds will still linger across the
state as an upper level disturbances moves over the state. In
addition low low level clouds and showers from the remnant front
may move over the state increasing shower potential across the
state. However, cloud heights and showers will continue to be
limited due to dry mid levels. The greatest chance of showers will
be around Big Island where lingering moisture will be the
deepest.

Drier and more stable conditions will fill in Sunday into Monday
as mid to upper level ridging builds over the state. Winds may
veer east southeast during the first half of next week as another
front approaches the state from the northwest. Not expecting any
significant weather as low to mid levels will remain dry during
this time.


&&

.AVIATION...

Mostly VFR conditions prevail across the state this morning.
However expect periods of MVFR due to CLD and SHRA as a band of
low level clouds and showers push onshore over windward and mauka
areas this morning. Mid to high clouds will continue to move from
the southwest to northeast across the state.

AIRMET Sierra maybe need later this morning as band of low clouds
fills in along windward and mauka slopes.

AIRMET Tango in effect due to low level turb lee of mtn.

AIRMET Zulu in effect due to light icing associated with the mid
level CLD.


&&

.MARINE...
A 1033 mb surface high far north northeast of the state will help
maintain fresh to strong easterly trade winds today. As the high
drifts eastward Friday through this weekend, trades will begin to
slowly trend down. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) remains in effect
through this evening, for contributions from both winds and seas,
but may need to be paired back tonight as the winds begin to
slowly ease and seas lower. If current guidance holds, the SCA
could be dropped all together by Saturday.

The current moderate, medium period, northwest swell (320) peaked
earlier this morning, as noted on the Waimea Bay buoy observations.
This swell will slowly lose energy through remainder of today,
but should continue to keep surf elevated for north and west
facing shores. A High Surf Advisory (HSA) remains for north and
west facing shores of Niihau, Kauai, Oahu, and Molokai through
noon today. However, if the swell lingers longer than expected,
the HSA will need to be extended through at least the rest of the
afternoon. Another moderate, medium period, northwest swell
(310-330) is progged to arrive Saturday into Sunday and should
once again produce surf at or near advisory levels along north and
west facing shores. Looking ahead towards mid next week, a large,
long period, northwest (310-330) swell is forecast to arrive and
could bring advisory or even warning level surf along north and
west facing shores.

East shore surf will remain elevated and rough today, but expected
to decline Friday into this weekend as trades weaken over and
upstream of the islands.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Critical fire weather conditions are not expected through the
forecast period. A wet, breezy trade wind pattern will hold
through today with winds tapering off Friday into early next week.
Lingering low level moisture will keep minimum relative humidity
levels above critical thresholds. Inversion heights this morning
range from 6,000 to 7,000 ft.


&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Surf Advisory until noon HST today for Niihau-Kauai Leeward-
Waianae Coast-Oahu North Shore-Kauai North-Molokai Windward-
Molokai North-Molokai West.

Winter Weather Advisory until noon HST today for Big Island
Summits.

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST this evening for all
Hawaiian waters-


&&

$$


DISCUSSION...Almanza
AVIATION...Almanza
MARINE...Thomas
FIRE WEATHER...Almanza