542
FXHW60 PHFO 091405
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
405 AM HST Sun Nov 9 2025

.SYNOPSIS...

A cold front over Maui County will move south through Big Island
today, bringing an increase in showers, especially along windward
slopes. Breezy east- northeasterly trades will fill in behind the
front and persist through much of next week, becoming even
stronger by mid- week as strong high pressure builds north of the
islands. Typical windward and mauka showers will prevail under the
trade flow, with generally drier conditions leeward.


&&

.DISCUSSION...

A weakening cold front is currently moving through Maui County
with the leading edge pushing south toward North Kohala District
of the Big Island early this morning. Radar and satellite shows
clouds and light to brief moderate showers mainly focused along
windward and mauka regions with some showers showers spilling over
to leeward locations of the smaller islands. Overnight rainfall
totals range from .20 to 2.78 inches with higher totals mainly
along windward and mauka locations. Breezy northeast winds have
filled in along and behind the front based on latest ASCAT and
hourly observations.

The front is forecast to move through north Big Island this
morning before becoming more diffused and pushing south through
the rest of the island later this afternoon into evening hours.
Expect light and variable winds ahead of the front, shifting to
breezy east- northeasterly trades in its wake. Mid- level ridging
in place over the region will continue to limit vertical
development, keeping rainfall rates modest overall.

Following the front, breezy east-northeasterly trades will become
established across the state as high pressure builds to the
north. Drier more stable air will fill in first for the western
end of the state today then for the eastern half of the state
later tonight and Monday. During this time dewpoints will drop to
the mid to low 60s allowing temperatures to feel a little cooler
than normal and should hold into Wednesday. Another reinforcing
front with an even stronger high pressure system will arrive
midweek, providing another boost in the east- northeasterly
trades. With mid level ridging persisting over the region,
inversion heights will remain low, keeping the moisture confined
to lower levels and focusing clouds and showers over primarily
windward and mauka areas. Dewpoints will rebound into the 70`s
during the second half of the week.


&&

.AVIATION...

A cold front is moving through Maui County and will be moving
through Big Island this morning through this afternoon with breezy
NE winds filling in behind the front. VFR conditions will prevail
behind the front, but MVFR conditions are expected during frontal
passage and CLD and SHRA focus mainly along windward and mauka
regions. Breezy trades are expected to strengthen out of the NE
after the front moves across the state over the next couple of
days.

AIRMET Sierra is in effect for Oahu Molokai and Maui windward
areas for MTN obscurations due to CLD and SHRA from the front.
This is expected to be adjusted to include windward Big Island due
to CLD and SHRA. Other areas may be dropped from SIERRA as
conditions settle behind the front.

AIRMET Tango is in effect for low-level turbulence over Kauai Oahu
Molokai and Maui, and will likely be expanded across the entire
state today as winds strengthen behind the frontal passage.



&&

.MARINE...

Rough marine conditions expected through much of the week due to
strong trade winds and a series of north to northeast swells. A
cold front currently pushing across Maui will continue
southeastward and move over the Big Island later today and into
tonight. Strong northeast winds will follow in its wake with a
quick rise in seas. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for
many coastal areas today and has been expanded in coverage to
include all of the Hawaiian coastal waters starting this evening
as the front makes its way through the island chain. Strong
northeast winds will persist through much of the week with an
uptick expected midweek as the high strengthens and builds north
of the area Wednesday into Thursday, bringing the possibility of
gales for some of our typical windy channels around Maui County
and the Big Island.

A moderate, short-medium period, north-northwest to north swell
arrived overnight and will produce elevated surf along north
facing shores as it continues to fill in through the day today.
With the offshore buoys northwest of the state peaking with energy
mostly in the 10 to 12 second energy bands yesterday afternoon
and evening, we are expecting near borderline advisory level surf
along north facing shores today. Will continue to monitor to see
if a High Surf Advisory (HSA) is needed later this morning, as
this swell energy is continuing to rise at the Waimea buoy.

A larger moderate period north to north- northeast (010-030
degree) swell will fill in tonight into Monday which should
exceed advisory thresholds along north and east facing shores.
Due to the northerly direction, areas such as west Maui will also
see elevated surf as well as some of the exposed areas of west
Big Island near Kua Bay. Another reinforcing northeast swell is
expected towards the middle of the week as a gale force low
develops northeast of the state on Monday. The combination of
these swells will likely produce moderate to heavy surges in north
facing harbors such as Kahului and Hilo harbors throughout the
first half of the week.

A small, long period, south-southwest swell will keep surf
heights near seasonal averages along south facing shores today.
THen a pair of south to south-southwest swells should bring above
average surf throughout the first half of the week.

Peak monthly tides combined with water levels that are running
higher than predicted will lead to minor flooding along the
shoreline and in low-lying coastal areas during the morning high
tide. A Coastal Flood Statement remains in effect through noon
today.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Critical fire weather conditions are not expected through the
next few days. Breezy trades will fill in across the state today,
but lingering moisture will prevent critical fire weather
concerns. Breezy trades are forecast to become even stronger by
mid-week, but low- level moisture embedded within the trades will
help keep relative humidity from reaching critical thresholds.



&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Monday for Kauai Northwest
Waters-Kauai Windward Waters-Kauai Leeward Waters-Kauai Channel-
Oahu Windward Waters-Oahu Leeward Waters-Kaiwi Channel-Maui
County Windward Waters-Maui County Leeward Waters-Maalaea Bay-
Pailolo Channel-Alenuihaha Channel.

Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM HST Monday
for Big Island Windward Waters-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big
Island Southeast Waters.


&&

$$


DISCUSSION...Almanza
AVIATION...Almanza
MARINE...Farris
FIRE WEATHER...Almanza