692
FXHW60 PHFO 250201
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
401 PM HST Mon Nov 24 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Passing weather systems to the north will keep light to moderate
east to east-southeast winds and drier conditions in place for
much of this week. A cold front will approach the state during the
second half of the week, but likely stall out and diminish west
of Kauai over the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A surface ridge remains just north of the islands with plenty of
mid- to upper-level ridging. The CIMMS MIMIC precipitable water
shows a large area of drier air moving in to the area from the east,
which is also reflected in the afternoon soundings from Hilo and
Lihue. As a result, the visible satellite imagery shows only scattered
clouds over most of the island chain this afternoon, moving into
windward areas and developing over some leeward terrain where sea
breezes have developed in the more wind- sheltered spots. This dry
and stable weather pattern will continue for much of this week with
little variation overall. Trade wind speeds will be somewhat subdued
as a series of cold frontal systems pass by farther to the north
this week, weakening the ridge.

By Wednesday evening, a stronger cold frontal system moves closer
to the state, driving the weakened ridge farther south over the
Hawaiian Islands from Thursday to Friday. Lighter east to southeast
winds will develop from Thursday onward into the weekend, expanding
the coverage of daytime sea breezes to leeward areas of all islands.
Not much in the way of showers expected during this time period as
well, with the ridge over the islands keeping conditions fairly stable.
One exception to this rule will be along the southeast slopes of the
Big Island, where southeasterly wind flow will lift clouds up the
slopes of Mauna Loa, potentially enhancing clouds and showers over
Kau and Puna Districts.

These lighter winds will continue through the weekend as the approaching
cold front appears to stall out and dissipate just west of Kauai. Light
southerly winds ahead of this front may increase shower activity over
Kauai and Niihau for Saturday and Sunday, however, model solutions
are fairly inconsistent on this from run to run. The rest of the state
will likely remain on the drier side in a hybrid sea breeze/east-
southeast wind pattern. Long-term guidance is hinting at another cold
front approaching the islands early next week that may bring some
southerly winds and wet weather to portions of the state.

&&

.AVIATION...
A surface ridge to the north will maintain light to moderate trade
winds over the next few days, weakening slightly tomorrow. Terrain
sheltered areas could see afternoon seabreezes as well. Strong
ridging aloft is currently keeping showers brief and isolated,
this should continue through the forecast period. TEMPO MVFR is
possible in any passing showers.

No AIRMETs in effect and none are expected.

&&

.MARINE...
A ridge of high pressure located a few hundred miles north of the
state will gradually move southeast and will be near or over the
state by Wednesday or Thursday. This will cause our current
moderate to locally fresh easterly trade winds to gradually weaken
over the next several days and veer toward the southeast. The
forecast beyond Thursday will be highly dependent on the evolution
of a large North Pacific storm developing Thursday into Friday.
Latest global models and its ensemble members are in line with a
front approaching the state from the northwest Friday into
Saturday with the front stalling and weakening within the vicinity
of Kauai Saturday into Sunday. Although the details remain
uncertain regarding thunderstorm chances, confidence is increasing
for large seas above the Small Craft Advisory thresholds (10 ft or
higher) Saturday night into Sunday. A smaller but still large
northwest to north- northwest swell could also push seas near the
SCA threshold over Thanksgiving.

The current northwest swell will steadily decline through Tuesday.
A large long-period northwest to north-northwest (320-330 degree)
swell is expected to fill in throughout the day Wednesday and will
likely exceed advisory thresholds sometime Wednesday afternoon.
Altimeter passes from this morning show the swell running several
feet above guidance thresholds, which increases confidence for
the swell to peak well above advisory thresholds Wednesday night
into Thursday. The NW-NNW swell could briefly near warning
thresholds late Wednesday night into Thursday morning.

A large storm force low is expected to develop across the West
Central Pacific (roughly 1500 nm NW of Oahu) on Thursday and
could send our first extra large northwest swell of the season
Saturday night into Sunday along north and west facing shores.
There are still some differences regarding the intensity of the
low with each model run, but nonetheless we should see an extra
large swell by next Sunday. Although it will be highly dependent
on the intensity, the size of the low and the close proximity of
the fetch gives potential for possible giant surf next Sunday.

Surf along east facing shores will decline over the next several days
due to the trade winds weakening.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Winds and humidity levels will remain below critical fire weather
thresholds this week. Brief passing showers will tend to favor
island interiors during the afternoons and windward areas overnight
into the early mornings.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/FIRE WEATHER...TS
AVIATION...Tsamous
MARINE...Kino