139
FXHW60 PHFO 200207
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
407 PM HST Wed Nov 19 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Breezy to locally windy trade will continue to push deep tropical
moisture over the state tonight. Moderate to locally heavy rain
remains possible along windward and mauka areas of Maui County and
the Big Island. Heavy rain chances diminish late tonight, but
breezy and showery trades will persist through Thursday. Mid level
drying will limit clouds and showers Friday into early next week.
Easing trade winds over the weekend could allow for more of a
hybrid land/sea breeze pattern over the weekend. Drier moderate
trades should return Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Satellite imagery continues to show thick mid and high clouds
streaming over the eastern end of the state this afternoon. Radar
imagery also shows scattered moderate showers over mainly windward
and mauka areas of all islands, with locally heavy showers moving
into windward areas of Molokai, Maui, and the Big Island. Rainfall
totals the last 6 to 12 hours across these areas have ranged from
0.25 inches on the low end to over 2 inches at Kulaimano on the
Big Island and West Wailuaiki on Maui. High resolution guidance
continues to show this moisture band being pushed westward
overnight by the trades. The main chance of locally heavy rainfall
remains along windward and mauka areas of Maui County and the Big
Island as PWATs remain close to 2 inches, with the threat
diminishing overnight as the air mass starts to stabilize and dry
out. Some of these showers may continue to produce some nuisance
flooding tonight, but overall threat is minimal. As for the rest
of the state, scattered light to moderate showers will remain
focused along the windward and mauka areas under breezy trades.

The Big Island summits remained above freezing this afternoon,
with minimal rain accumulations. However, guidance continues to
show temperatures falling to near or below freezing tonight as the
moist air mass lingers over the area. Therefore, any precipitation
that fall across the summits tonight will be a wintry mix of rain
and snow showers tonight, with a slight chance of light freezing
rain possible. The current Winter Weather Advisory remains in
effect until noon on Thursday. Conditions should quickly clear by
late Thursday morning as temperatures climb above freezing.

The strong surface high passing north will maintain breezy trade
winds into Thursday. Guidance continues to show a band of low
level clouds and showers moving across the area on Thursday keeping
a rather cloudy and wet trade wind pattern in place.

Trade winds are expected to ease Friday into the weekend as a
front approaches the state from the far northwest. Mid level
drying should limit clouds and showers. A few high clouds may
remain as an upper level short wave trough passes north of the
state Friday.

A hybrid trade wind and sea breeze pattern could develop Saturday
as winds relax allowing for clouds and showers to develop along
leeward and interior areas and low level moisture from the
dissipating front moves over the state. However, cloud heights
and showers will continue to be limited due to dry mid levels. The
greatest chance of showers will be around Big Island where
lingering moisture will be the deepest.

Drier and more stable conditions will fill in Sunday into early
next week as mid to upper level ridging builds over the state and
moderate trades return.

&&

.AVIATION...
Conditions improve early in the forecast period as the back edge
of deeper moisture embedded within the trades advances quickly
through the Big Island and Maui. AIRMET Sierra remains in place
for now but can likely be dropped as the evening progresses.
Elsewhere, a more typical trade wind pattern prevails with a
typical distribution of lighter and less organized showers
windward and mauka. Anticipate emerging VFR beneath a canopy of
high clouds at all windward locales by the predawn hours Thursday.

AIRMET Tango in effect for lee turb.

AIRMET Sierra for mountain obscuration in effect for Windward Maui
through Big Island.

&&

.MARINE...
Strong trade winds will continue through Thursday, then trend
down through the weekend. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) is out
through Thursday for contributions from both winds and seas. With
the swells and winds expected to taper off Thursday night and
Friday, the SCA will likely be paired back during this period, and
then dropping all together this weekend. East shore surf will
decline as trades weaken over and upstream of the islands.

An overlapping north and northwest swell will bring advisory
conditions to north and west facing shores today through midday
Thursday. Most of the focus of the north swell will be directed
towards Niihau and Kauai. A High Surf Advisory has been posted for
Niihau, Kauai, Oahu and Molokai through noon Thursday with both
swells falling through the afternoon. For south shores, tiny
background south swell energy will persist. Another northwest
swell will build north and west shores to advisory level surf
Saturday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Critical fire weather conditions not expected through the forecast
period. Periods of locally heavy rain remain possible over Maui
County and the Big Island through tonight. Breezy to locally windy
trades continue into Thursday, then ease below critical thresholds
heading into the weekend. Lingering moisture will keep relative
humidity above critical thresholds.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Surf Advisory until noon HST Thursday for Niihau-Kauai
Leeward-Waianae Coast-Oahu North Shore-Kauai North-Molokai
Windward-Molokai North-Molokai West.

Winter Weather Advisory until noon HST Thursday for Big Island
Summits.

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Thursday for all Hawaiian
waters-

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Ahue
AVIATION...JVC
MARINE...Foster
FIRE WEATHER...Ahue