723
FXUS64 KHGX 011115
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
615 AM CDT Sat Nov 1 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms Saturday. The
  biggest threat for a strong to severe will mostly be onshore,
  but could creep into coastal communities in the afternoon.
  There, a marginal risk (threat level 1 of 5) exists for a severe
  thunderstorm.

- Drier air filters back into the region after Saturday`s frontal
  passage. Outside of some gusts into the low teens Sunday
  afternoon, this dry air will be mostly accompanied by lighter
  winds, precluding serious fire weather concerns. However, the
  dry air and background of emerging drought makes it important to
  obey all local burn bans.

- Fair weather prevails from Sunday onward into the new week, with
  a gradual trend towards warmer and slightly more humid days.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1216 AM CDT Sat Nov 1 2025

The large majority of the forecast will be focused on temperature
and humidity trends with fair weather...except, of course, the
next 24 hours or so. Even this I don`t anticipate will be more
than a smattering of showers with a thunderstorm or two for most
of the area, with dewpoints still in the 40s right now for the
majority of the area. This should, of course, change with onshore
flow finally in place, but it looks like north of
Brenham/Navasota/Conroe, we`ll still struggle/fail to get out of
the lower 50s. Instead, I`ve got my eye mostly towards the coast.
Really, I`m spying more out over the Gulf waters for marine
interests, as the most unstable air will be out there, and recent
CAM runs also seem to be highlighting that, with stronger
convection blossoming late this afternoon/tonight over the waters.

But...the coast could still see some of that juicier air drift
over the shores and provide a more suitable environment for
stronger storms. To account for this, we do have SPC drawing a
narrow corridor of a marginal risk right along the coastline.
Considering this involves some pretty low probabilities, that
seems pretty reasonable. I see this setup as being a fairly
conditional one. Either that best airmass stays offshore, and the
coast is just like everyone else with scattered showers and maybe
a storm or two...or that airmass does bleed onshore some, and we
do see a stronger/severe storm manage to pop up in the process of
getting that stronger flourishing of storms over the Gulf.

On the backside of the front, we find ourselves back in a position
with cooler and much drier air surging in from the north. While it
may be a bit reminiscent of earlier in the week, the shift in
conditions will not be nearly so severe. This is good in that we
should avoid another gale on coastal waters, though a small craft
advisory will be needed. Over land, we`ll again look at widespread
RHs in the lower 30s (except right on the water, which should
still get to around/just below 40 percent) and pair it with a bit
of a boost in winds. However, while the low-friction water will
allow a solid increase in winds, I`m expecting the wind boost to
be more modest over land. I`m thinking more 10ish mph, with some
gusts into the low/mid teens. This means we won`t have to worry
about critical fire weather conditions. That doesn`t mean
things`ll be great for fire potential though. I`m not expecting
today`s rainfall to be eye-popping, or really even worth noting
except in localized spots, and we do have a seasonal lack of
precip creating an environment more supportive of wildfire starts.
So, Sunday will definitely be a day to be obeying those local burn
bans (I mean, you should do that every day, but Sunday will
provide a textbook example of why you do it every day).

Next week, we`ll have ourselves a seasonable start with a gradual
warming trend as ridging generally holds across the area. We`ll
likely have more to say eventually about the end of the week, but
for now there`s not much to say confidently beyond it being a time
to look for a change from that pattern of ridging.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 604 AM CDT Sat Nov 1 2025

Generally VFR conditions will prevail through the period with
increasing mid and high level clouds through this afternoon ahead
of an approaching cold front. This front will bring scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms, with the greatest chances of
the thunderstorms being near the immediate coast. In the TAFs,
terminals north of I-10 have PROB30s for -SHRA, and then PROB30s
for TS in terminals south of I-10. There is a chance that future
TAF updates keeps the mention of TS to just GLS/LBX.

Light and variable winds are expected through the mid morning
hours, gradually becoming easterly then northeasterly through this
evening as the front slides through. Winds will generally be
8-12kt, but will be higher at GLS overnight tonight with gusts to
20-25kt possible.

Fowler

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1216 AM CDT Sat Nov 1 2025

Winds have veered around to the southeast before the arrival of
our next front. That front is expected to sag into the waters on
Saturday bringing some scattered showers and thunderstorms. The
strongest of these storms could be severe, generating very strong
winds in the vicinity of those storms. Though we will see a
gradual wind shift through the day, winds speeds will not
substantially increase until the evening and overnight hours. A Small
Craft Advisory is in place from this evening through Sunday
morning. Moderate northeast winds and building seas should begin
to gradually diminish Sunday afternoon. Light onshore winds resume
Monday and should prevail for a good part of next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  70  45  69  44 /  30  10   0   0
Houston (IAH)  73  50  72  47 /  30  10   0   0
Galveston (GLS)  75  59  71  60 /  60  50   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to noon CDT Sunday
     for GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Luchs
AVIATION...Fowler
MARINE...Luchs