Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
494 FXUS64 KHGX 071845 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 1245 PM CST Fri Nov 7 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... - Generally warm and dry through Saturday. - Hazardous driving conditions expected during the morning commute late tonight into Saturday morning due to areas with dense fog. - A cold front will bring gusty winds and much colder temperatures in its wake Sunday and Monday. Some locations could have their first light freeze of the season. - Hazardous marine conditions are likely Sunday and Monday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1059 AM CST Fri Nov 7 2025 Dry and Warm conditions will persist through Saturday with high temperatures in the mid to upper 80s for much of Southeast Texas (Piney Woods region could remain in the mid 80s). Isolated areas south of I-10 and west of I-45 could reach 90 deg F. This is roughly about 10-15 deg above normal for the inland locations. Low temperatures will be in the mid-upper 50s over the Brazos Valley/Piney Woods region, the lower to mid 60s for the rest of the inland areas, and the upper 60s to lower 70s along the coasts. The potential for patchy to dense fog developing during the overnight hours and is expected again tonight and may affect your morning commute...if you encounter dense fog, remember to turn on your low-beam headlights, slow down and increase distance, and consider the possibility of traffic delays. Fog is expected to lift by the mid-morning hours. The main headliner for this forecast period remains to be the upcoming cold front and its weather impacts in the wake of it. The front is expected to push across Southeast TX late Saturday night into Sunday morning. Little to no rain is expected with this front, thus, there are no concern for flooding or severe storms at this time. A very dry airmass and strong gusty north to northeast winds can be expected in the wake of the front. Wind speeds inland are expected to be in the 15-20 mph range with gusts of 25-30 mph. Expect winds to be slightly stronger over the Barrier Islands and areas close to the bays. Make sure to secure any outdoor objects that can be easily blown away with strong winds. Very dry air will move into the region shortly after the passage of the front, and will likely lead to elevated to critical fire conditions on Sunday and Monday (refer the Fire Weather Discussion below for additional information). We will also see a pretty good drop in temperatures with highs lowering to the upper 60s to lower 70s on Sunday and the upper 50s and lower 60s on Monday. Our overnight temperatures will finally give us an introduction to winter time temperatures, with lows dropping into the lower 30s over the Piney Woods, the upper 30s to lower 40s for the rest of the inland portions, and the mid to upper 40s along the coast. The low temperatures for Monday are a few degrees colder (widespread mid to upper 30s lows). One thing to note is that winds will still be elevated Sunday night, thus, make sure to bundle up given that it will feel several degrees colder. Unfortunately, we are expecting to warm back up rather quickly with highs back in the 70s on Tuesday and in the 80s by Wednesday. This will put us at around 8-12 deg above normal once again. Cotto && .AVIATION... (12Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 505 AM CST Fri Nov 7 2025 A mixture of IFR to VFR conditions this morning with patchy dense fog and low ceilings persisting. Southwesterly winds early this morning are promoting more mixing leading to this morning`s event being more of a low ceiling impact compared to Thursday morning being more of a widespread dense fog impact. Any lingering low- level clouds or fog will dissipate by 15Z with VFR conditions and southwesterly winds around 8-12 kt prevailing throughout the day. Another round of patchy fog/low ceilings is expected to develop again overnight into Saturday morning as winds become light and variable. Batiste && .MARINE... Issued at 1059 AM CST Fri Nov 7 2025 Light SSW winds and seas of 3 feet or less will continue through Saturday. Patchy to dense fog is expected to develop inland once again during the overnight to early morning hours and could spill into the bays. Fog, if any, is expected to gradually burn off by the mid-morning hours. A cold front will push into the coastal waters late Saturday night into early Sunday morning. Isolated showers and storms are possible with the front. Strong north to northeast winds are expected to develop in its wake Sunday morning and gusts could reach gale strength at times. Seas will build to around 5-7 feet over the nearshore waters and up to 12 feet for the offshore waters. Small Craft Advisories will likely be required for Sunday and Monday for winds of 25-30kt and gusts of 30-35kt. A Gale Watch/Warning is possible. Water levels over the bays may reach 0.5-1.0 below MLLW during low tide on Sunday and Monday. Winds and seas will subside Monday evening into Tuesday. Onshore flow expected Tuesday into Friday. Cotto && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 505 AM CST Fri Nov 7 2025 Elevated fire weather conditions are expected on Sunday and Monday as gusty northerly winds prevail in the wake of a strong cold front that pushes through late Saturday night/early Sunday morning. Drier air behind the front will lead to minimum RH values in the 25-35% range on Sunday and 15-25% range on Monday. The winds will be the strongest on Sunday with sustained winds around 20-30 mph with 30-40 mph gusts. Winds on Monday will start out gusty, but gradually subside throughout the day. The Texas A&M Forest Service has already outlined the majority of Southeast Texas in a very high to extreme forecast fire danger rating for Sunday. Batiste && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 86 56 85 57 / 0 0 0 0 Houston (IAH) 87 65 87 61 / 0 0 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 80 70 81 65 / 0 0 0 10 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Cotto AVIATION...Batiste MARINE...Cotto FIRE WEATHER...Batiste