990
FXUS64 KHGX 100017
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
617 PM CST Sun Nov 9 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong northerly winds have developed in the wake of the FROPA.
  Critical fire weather conditions are anticipated and have
  resulted in the issuance of a Red Flag Warning for this
  afternoon and Monday. A Wind advisory is in place through this
  evening for where the strongest post- frontal winds are
  expected around Matagorda Bay and along Gulf islands and
  peninsulas.

- Some locations well north of the Houston metro could have their
  first light freeze of the season tonight into Monday morning
  and/or Monday night into Tuesday morning. A Freeze Warning is in
  effect for Houston, Trinity, Madison, Polk, and Walker Counties
  for tonight into Monday morning

- Hazardous marine conditions are expected this afternoon into
  Monday. A Gale Warning is in effect for the coastal Gulf waters.
  A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for the Bays from through
  late Sunday night. Additionally, the strong north winds will
  generate low water conditions in the bays, particularly
  Galveston Bay - a low water advisory is in effect for the Sunday
  and Monday low tide cycles.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 154 PM CST Sun Nov 9 2025

Several hazards are ongoing or anticipated in the wake of this
morning`s front. Fire weather wise, RH values have dropped into
the low to mid 20% range for much of the area, with the driest air
behind the front set to arrive Monday, while winds will be on the
downward trend, dry air and windy conditions may result in
critically drier fuels...therefore, the Red Flag Warning will
continue for the entire area tomorrow.

Windy conditions across the land will gradually diminish this
evening into the overnight hours with northerly winds around 10
mph expected for much of the day Monday. Gusts to around 20-25 mph
will be possible during the morning hours. A Wind Advisory remains
in effect through this evening.

Colder northerly winds will bring strong CAA into Southeast Texas
tonight into Monday morning (and again Monday night into Tuesday
Morning). Low temperatures are anticipated to dip below freezing
for a few hours early Monday morning in Houston, Madison, Trinity,
Walker, and Polk Counties which has prompted a Freeze Warning for
tonight into Monday morning. While these are the areas that have
the highest probability of experiencing freezing temperatures for
more than two consecutive hours, I do want to point out that
locations north of I-10 (particularly north of the metro and in
Brazos Valley) could reach freezing temperatures for a shorter
duration tonight into Monday morning. That being said, if you live
in a location vulnerable to freezing temperatures, please remember
to protect the 4 Ps (people, pets, pipes, plants). We are
continuing to monitor for the potential of another night of
freezing temperatures Monday night into Tuesday morning, which may
necessitate another Freeze Warning.

Temperatures begin to recover by midweek as onshore flow returns
Tuesday and brings in our typical warmer humid airmass. Highs are
expected to return to the 80s by Wednesday, with 80 degree highs
continuing through the end of the week.

Rain chances remain nil, especially with a cooler and drier
airmass in place at this time. May see an uptick in PoPs later in
the period once persistent onshore flow becomes established and
moisture returns to SE Texas.

Bailey

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 615 PM CST Sun Nov 9 2025

Gusty northerly winds should ease down overnight during the early
morning hours of Monday. Gusts briefly resume late Monday morning
through part of the afternoon before tapering off by the late
afternoon. VFR conditions prevailing.

03

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 154 PM CST Sun Nov 9 2025

Strong north winds and building seas will continue through late
tonight and possibly into Monday morning. Small Craft Advisory
conditions are expected in the bays through late tonight. Gale
conditions are expected to continue on the Gulf through the
night. The strong north winds will also generate low water
conditions late Sunday and Monday on both Galveston Bay and
Matagorda Bay, with more severe low water conditions anticipated
on Galveston Bay, where a low water advisory has been issued.
These conditions are expected to be an issue at low tide on
Sunday, but also in upper portions of the bay and the Houston Ship
Channel through Monday`s low tide cycle as well.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 154 PM CST Sun Nov 9 2025

Critical fire weather conditions are expected to continue this
afternoon and Monday due to the dry air and gusty winds,
prompting a Red Flag Warning across Southeast Texas as any new
fires could spread rapidly in this environment. At greatest risk
will be areas of dense, grassy fuels, which will respond most
quickly to the surge of dry air. Winds will begin to diminish
Monday, but humidity will be even lower and fuels will have
additional time to dry. A Red Flag Warning continues across the
area Monday, as there may be a window in which critical fire
weather conditions materialize again. Continue to obey all local
burn bans.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  34  58  35  72 /   0   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)  39  60  38  72 /   0   0   0   0
Galveston (GLS)  47  61  52  72 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Red Flag Warning until 6 PM CST Monday for TXZ163-164-176>179-
     195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-300-313-335>338-436>439.

     Freeze Warning until 9 AM CST Monday for TXZ163-164-176-177-179.

     Wind Advisory until 6 AM CST Monday for TXZ436>439.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CST Monday for GMZ330-335.

     Low Water Advisory until midnight CST Monday night for GMZ335.

     Gale Warning until 6 AM CST Monday for GMZ350-355-370-375.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Bailey
AVIATION...03
MARINE...Bailey