Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
704 FXUS64 KHGX 020532 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 1232 AM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1212 AM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025 - Dry conditions continue one more day. Continue to use caution when working with open flame or equipment that can cause sparks and start a fire. - Rain chances rise on Friday into the weekend when moisture deepens enough to allow for some isolated seabreeze showers/storms along the coast. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1212 AM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025 Forecast is still on track as drier conditions persist for one more day. Slim to none rain chances still anticipated today with relative humidity dropping to 29-40 percent during the afternoon hours. These conditions with the presence of dry vegetation & fuels will bring another day of enhanced fire weather concerns across the area. Low wind speeds and gusts are still expected to inhibit the spread of fires, making for easier containment thus mitigating the fire weather danger. Still, use caution when working with open flames, and be mindful of equipment which could create sparks. Ridging should still build over the Plains on Friday while easterly flow develops near the surface from a coastal trough over the Gulf. This will tighten the pressure gradient over the waters, resulting in a rise in winds and seas. In addition, moisture advection will strengthen, resulting in a daily risk of showers/storms. Initially these rain chances will be restricted to more coastal locations south of I-10, but as this moisture builds next week, we could see rain chances reach further inland. Still, the best chances for any showers/storms throughout this period of the forecast will be along the coast and over the waters. Temperatures will be generally above normal throughout the forecast period (3-10 degrees or so), with highs ranging from the upper 80s to mid/lower 90s. 03 && .AVIATION... (00Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 623 PM CDT Wed Oct 1 2025 Seabreeze is situated from Sugarland to the I-10 corridor across the Houston area. Not confident it`ll make it all the way up to IAH before sunset, but if it does wind directions may temporarily become a bit more southeasterly there for a few hours than what is indicated in the 0z TAF package (110 degrees). Regardless, speeds will quickly diminish after sunset and become more variable in direction overnight...probably trend n/ne later tonight and in the morning. Rest of the fcst is one of persistence with VFR conditions prevailing. 47 && .MARINE... Issued at 1212 AM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025 Light sea breeze, land breeze driven winds are expected today. Afterwards, a coastal trough will set up a long easterly fetch with winds of around 15-20 knots gusting to 25 knots offshore. This will usher in seas of 4 to 7 feet as well, prompting caution flags on Friday and Saturday. Small Craft Advisories could be needed during this period as well. These easterly winds will also enable water levels to reach somewhere between 3.0-3.7 ft MLLW at high tide. Around this time, scattered showers and storms will return to the forecast. Rain chances should then rise over the waters heading into next week. 03 && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1212 AM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025 Active burn bans in SE Texas: Houston (New), Madison, Colorado, and Wharton counties. Dry conditions continue today with afternoon RH values dropping to 29-40% for inland areas. Observed 10 hour fuel moisture across SE Texas shows many areas below the 25th and 10th percentiles, with isolated spots in our west/northwestern counties below the 3rd percentile. These locations will be most prone to wildfires, though once again low wind speeds and gusts should aid in any firefighting/containment efforts. Still, much of SE Texas remains vulnerable to wildfires due to the dry conditions today. Those preforming land clearing should exercise caution, ensuring any fires are contained and have contingency plans should they grow out of control. Individuals should be mindful of equipment that could create unintended sparks, (i.e. loose chains) especially in areas with flammable surfaces. Easterly flow and rising moisture on Friday will lead to improved rain chances over the weekend. 03 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 93 68 91 66 / 0 0 0 0 Houston (IAH) 93 72 91 70 / 0 0 10 0 Galveston (GLS) 90 77 87 77 / 0 20 40 20 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...03 AVIATION...47 MARINE...03