Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
354 FXUS64 KHGX 240604 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 1204 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and thunderstorms are forecast to move into the region later this afternoon and evening. A few storms could become severe north of I-10. - A weak front and gradually weakening, remnant showers/storms will sag toward the coast later tonight. - A stronger, reinforcing front pushes through Wednesday morning, bringing cooler and drier conditions just in time for Thanksgiving. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1203 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025 Mid-upper trof will continue making its way into the Plains today. In the llvls, 25-35kt H85 winds will draw 1.5-1.8" PW`s ahead of an N-S oriented frontal boundary that will be making its way toward western parts of the region later in the day. Look for some shra/tstm development across this boundary this afternoon, as it progresses toward the Brazos Valley after about 2pm or so. Main concern, however, will be any discreet cells than initiate in advance. There will be sufficient instability and shear whereas some of these isolated cells might be capable of becoming severe with all modes of severe wx a possibility. Locations north of about Columbus- Cleveland might be the place to watch between 2-10pm. Elsewhere, there`s probably a lower, but non-zero threat of some stronger cells Monday evening/night as storms mainly consolidate along the surface boundary and the threat of the discreet activity lowers. This boundary will become oriented more W-E with time, and llvl jet weakens and becomes SW Monday night. This should lead to diminishing intensity as remnants tracks closer to the coast overnight. So overall, keep an eye on the stand-alone cells this afternoon & evening where severe storms are more probable. Elsewhere along the broken band, I`d look for the main issues to be some 25-50mph gusts and maybe some hail. Hires data shows this front sagging off the coast early Tuesday morning ending the POPs inland...though some of the globals show it temporarily stalling out during the day with some lingering sct shra chances in the coastal counties during the day (kind of similar to the last front). Don`t have strong confidence either way, though I`d probably lean closer to the hires guidance attm. Stronger push of cool, dry air arrives late Tue night and Wed morning which should bring some nice seasonable wx through Turkey Day. Onshore winds resume Friday...drawing deeper Gulf moisture into the region (and warmer temps) this weekend. Global models and blends are all mostly bullish showing a fairly wet weekend...but with a mainly zonal flow and lack of a surface boundary/forcing mechanism in the vicinity, I have a bit of skepticism at this point for total washouts. 47 && .AVIATION... (00Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 534 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025 Ceilings for western terminals (CLL/LBX) are beginning to fluctuate right on the line between VFR and MVFR. Expect gradually decreasing ceilings from west to east going into the evening/overnight hours with widespread MVFR conditions anticipated by 09Z/Monday. Isolated instances of IFR ceilings cannot be ruled out...not necessarily expecting visibilities to be much of an issue with upper level cloud cover and southeasterly winds remaining a bit elevated overnight. Spotty showers will begin pushing through the area overnight through Monday afternoon, and this has been covered with VCSH at all area terminals. MVFR ceilings will stick around through the late morning/early afternoon before improving back to VFR. Also anticipating southerly winds to be on the gusty side with sustained winds in the 10-15 kt range with 20-25 kt gusts. A line of showers/storms will enter the picture in the mid afternoon (around or after 21Z) from the northwest. Some of these storms could be on the strong side, especially along and north of the I-10 corridor as it pushes southward through Monday night. The timing is a bit uncertain, so the TEMPO`s in this TAF package are more of a general consensus based on the latest model guidance. These TEMPO`s show the potential for gusty winds and MVFR ceilings/visibilities due to these storms. Expect the 06Z TAF package to add additional clarity on the timing as well as include timing of the line of storms for the remaining terminals. Batiste && .MARINE... Issued at 1203 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025 Look for increasing southeast and building seas overnight and into Monday. May need some caution flags west of Freeport in the morning. The next weather system will move into Southeast Texas later today, with the tail end of some showers and isolated storms toward the coast Monday night. Can not rule out an isolated strong storm in the Galveston Bay area between about 10pm and 5am. Rain chances start to taper off Tuesday depending on when a weak cold front moves off the coast. A secondary, stronger push of cool dry air will move into the waters late Tuesday night and early Wednesday morning. North winds should increase to 20 to 25 knots as this occurs along with building seas offshore. Small Craft Advisories will be required. Onshore winds resume and increase later in the week. 47 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 83 57 76 51 / 90 70 0 0 Houston (IAH) 85 65 80 56 / 40 60 10 10 Galveston (GLS) 81 70 79 61 / 30 70 30 20 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...47 AVIATION...Batiste MARINE...47