227
FXUS64 KHGX 251912
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
112 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cooler and drier air has begun to filter into the area today
  following yesterday`s storms and cold front. But with plenty of
  sun, highs today will likely be similar to yesterday, albeit
  with much less humidity.

- A stronger, reinforcing front pushes through the area late
  tonight. It will bring a much cooler and drier conditions
  through the holiday.

- Onshore winds return Friday, along with warmer and more humid
  air to prepare the area for our next shot of rain and storms
  over the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 112 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

Much calmer weather prevails today after a rollicking day of
storms and at least one tornado (more information on that will be
released as our survey crews complete their work today). Modestly
cooler and much drier air is working its way into Southeast Texas
on northwesterly to northerly winds. However, highs this afternoon
are likely going to end up in about the same spot as yesterday,
perhaps even a tick higher for some thanks to a day of full sun,
rather than yesterday`s clouds and storms.

For those who have been loving our torchy autumn, do not get too
attached - a reinforcing cold front is on the way, and will make
its way through the area late tonight. As cold, dry air surges
into the area, tomorrow looks fairly gusty and temperatures look
unlikely to get out of the 60s except in the very warmest spots.
Of course...this whole time when I`m talking about a big change,
this really hinges on the relative difference in temps. When all
is said and done, even our chilliest days look to be within 5
degrees of average for late November, so it should still be fairly
seasonable.

While I`ve focused on daytime highs, it`s not a meaningfully
different story overnight. Wednesday night looks to be the
chilliest night of the week, and some folks up north should see
lows dip into the middle to upper 30s (Hey there, Houston County!
But also portions of Madison, Brazos, and Burleson counties). But
ultimately, even my forecast on this night is 3 to 7 degrees below
average. Chilly, but not unseasonably so.

Perhaps a more useful way of looking at it heading into winter is
the potential for freezing temperatures overnight. And...it`s
pretty much limited to the Trinity Valley in portions of Houston
and Madison counties. Tomorrow night is the main night to look
for, when spots right on the river`s banks so the probabilities of
falling below the freezing mark are as high as 55 percent. Though,
beyond the immediate area of the riverbank, that drops off to
something more like 1-in-4 or a 1-in-3 odds. Thursday night also
has some very low potential if you are right on the river, but on
this night, it really is limited to right on the river itself and
the NBM probabilities are only 20 percent or lower.

Look for onshore winds to return sometime on Friday, which sends
everything right back into a warming, moistening trend, and just
how much rebound we get becomes important for this weekend. Yup,
the cycle of fronts brings us our next opportunity for one this
weekend, and with it our next solid shot for rain and storms. I
don`t really want to get too speculative on just how this will
play out as we are nearly a week out. But from the ensemble data,
it seems like we aren`t necessarily staring down a big rain event
here. This seems fairly reasonable as we only will have onshore
flow resume Friday, providing a bottleneck for moisture return.
Neither the NAEFS nor the EPS brings back widespread precipitable
water values above the 90th percentile, though with values above
1.25 inches, we should be high enough to be reasonably confident
in getting some showers and storms.

Beyond that front, we can look for another shot of colder air, and
to celebrate us being in December by this point, it may actually
feel something like winter (well, Southeast Texas winter, anyway).
Again, neither the NAEFS nor the EPS bring 850 temps below the
10th percentile, and there is no signal for exceptional cold in
the EPS` Extreme Forecast Index...but in coordination with all our
neighboring offices, we settled on temperatures somewhere between
the 25th and 50th percentile to start off the new month. Chillier
than the NBM deterministic, and something more decidedly colder
than average, more in the 10-15 degree range. But, for now it
still appears like we`ll avoid anything eye-poppingly cold. We`ve
seen little in the way of freeze impact so far this fall, so that
potential may be something to watch as we draw closer.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 112 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

Main change with this cycle of TAFs is to introduce a LLWS mention
tomorrow morning from HOU northward after the passage of a dry,
reinforcing cold front overnight. More confidence in hitting the
WS thresholds farther north, but cautiously am bringing a mention
into the main Houston terminals. Regardless, tomorrow looks rather
gusty as the reinforcing airmass surges in.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 112 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

Light northwest to north winds through this evening. A push of
cool, dry air will move into the waters late tonight and early
Wednesday morning. Expect an increase in northeast winds to 20 to
25 knots with gusts of around 30 knots and building seas to match.
A Small Craft Advisory is in place on the Gulf waters from late
tonight through Wednesday evening. Though winds and seas may
diminish just below advisory thresholds late in the week, Onshore
winds resume and increase for the weekend when advisories may be
needed once more.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  76  49  63  40 /   0   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)  79  55  68  45 /   0   0   0   0
Galveston (GLS)  79  60  69  57 /  50   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution from midnight CST tonight
     through Wednesday afternoon for GMZ330-335.

     Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM Wednesday to midnight CST
     Wednesday night for GMZ350-355-370-375.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Luchs
AVIATION...Luchs
MARINE...Luchs