872
FXUS64 KHGX 300533
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1133 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A cold front will be passing through the area tonight with
  widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms developing ahead
  of and along the front. There is a marginal risk for a severe
  storm and/or heavy downpours - roughly a 5-15 percent chance.

- This front will bring gusty northerly winds across the area on
  Sunday. Small Craft Advisories are in effect for the Bays and
  coastal waters for these winds and elevated seas Sunday morning
  through Sunday night.

- Chilly weather is in store for the first half of the week with
  overnight lows dropping into the 30s and 40s across the area -
  with some spots in the Piney Woods possibly dropping to freezing
  Monday night.

- There will be additional rain chances through the week: Monday
  into Monday night, and Wednesday night through Thursday night or
  Friday morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 942 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

The anticipated cold front is knocking on our door and is expected
to pass through the area overnight. There is a line of showers
and strong thunderstorms currently extending along a ling from
B/CS through Lake Livingston that is producing gusty winds and
locally heavy rainfall (radar indicated rain rates of 1-3" per
hour). This line is slowly moving southwards, but is expected to
pick up speed as the cold front catches up to it. Additional
showers and thunderstorms are likely to form ahead of the cold
front late tonight across the coastal areas and persist until the
front moves through. FROPA timing from the Brazos Valley and Piney
Woods region is between 11pm and Midnight, the I-10 corridor
between 2-4am, and then off the coast by 4-6am. Like we are seeing
currently across the Brazos Valley to Piney Woods region, some
locally heavy rainfall is possible tonight across the area as the
front moves through. Grounds are fairly dry, which will help
alleviate flooding concerns, so minor flooding in areas of poor
drainage will be the primary concern - however, cannot out rule an
instance or two of flash flooding if heavy rainfall repeatedly
moves over the same area. One area to watch tonight will be the
Woodlands area as they received 1-2" of rain already from storms
earlier today.

A north wind is expected through the day on Sunday with gusts to
20-25mph expected through sunset. With temperatures on climbing
into the low to mid 50s and overcast skies expected, its going to
be a fairly chilly day. Some isolated showers are possible along
the coast through the morning due to lingering moisture. The
mostly cloudy skies overnight will keep temperatures from dropping
too far low Sunday night with minimum temperatures likely staying
in the low to mid 40s across much of the region. A weak upper-
level disturbance will slide across the area on Monday bringing
additional chances of scattered showers (mostly light rainfall,
but some embedded pockets of moderate rainfall cannot be ruled
out). With temperatures only climbing into the upper 40s to mid
50s on Monday, this will be a pretty cold rain. A reinforcing cold
front moves through late Monday ushering in even colder (and much
drier) conditions. Overnight lows Monday night and Tuesday night
will be in the 30s north of I-10 (with some spots in the Piney
Woods dropping to near freezing), and low to mid 40s down to the
coast. High temperatures on Tuesday will be similar to Monday, but
add on a few degrees.

Wednesday will be warmer thanks to the return of south-
southeasterly winds with highs temperatures in the low 60s to low
70s, and lows in the low 50s to low 60s. Another passing
disturbance on Thursday will bring additional rain chances for the
second half of the work week. Guidance is a bit uncertain on exact
timing, but could see the return of some rain showers as early as
Wednesday night with activity continuing through late Thursday or
early Friday morning.

Fowler

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 532 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

Increasing moisture ahead of an approaching cold front has brought
scattered showers and isolated, strong thunderstorms this evening.
The main cluster of these strong thunderstorms are currently
passing between IAH and CXO, and are expected to push eastwards
through the rest of the evening hours. However, another round of
showers and thunderstorms is expected later tonight as the cold
front slides through the area. The thunderstorm activity is
expected to pick up ahead of the cold front, and also a line of
thunderstorms is expected to accompany the frontal passage itself.
FROPA is expected to occur at CLL between 4-6z, at IAH between
6-9z, and then through GLS by 10-13z. Some light rain showers may
also linger for a few hours behind the front, especially at the
coast.

South to southeasterly winds around 7-12kt with occasional gusts
to 20-25kt will continue ahead of the front. The cold front will
usher in northerly winds of 12-17kt with gusts to 25kt (higher at
the coast) that will continue through Sunday afternoon. Elevated
winds around 10-15kt may persist into Sunday night, but the gusts
will likely drop-off by sunset.

CIGs are expected to lower to MVFR conditions (1500-2500ft) ahead
of the cold front`s passage tonight with IFR conditions expected
to occur with the FROPA and linger into Sunday morning with CIGs
down to around 700ft. The IFR conditions are expected to linger
along the I-10 corridor until around 18z with MVFR conditions
persisting through the remainder of the day with CIGs around
2500ft. Areas at the coast may stay IFR all day long, but CLL/UTS
may scatter out enough to bring VFR conditions by the afternoon.
However, MVFR to IFR conditions are expected to return area-wide
Sunday night into Monday morning along the scattered showers
possible.

Fowler

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 942 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

A cold front is approaching the area from the north and will pass
through the coastal waters late tonight into early Sunday morning.
Showers and thunderstorms will develop ahead of and along the cold
front, with some isolated strong storms capable of producing
heavy rainfall, frequent lightning, and gusty winds. The front is
expected to pass through the Bays around 5-6am, the nearshore
waters between 6-8am, and then through the offshore waters by the
late morning. This front will usher in a strong northerly winds of
20-25kt with gusts to 30kt likely and to 35 kt possible. These
winds will persist through Sunday night for the Bays, and into
Monday morning for the coastal waters. A Small Craft Advisory is
already in effect for the offshore waters due to lingering seas of
near 7ft, and then the rest of the waters begin at 6am for the
strong northerly winds behind the front. The SCA continues into
Sunday night for the Bays, and through Monday morning for the
coastal waters. However, this may need to be extended into Monday
afternoon depending on lingering gusty winds.

Another disturbance is expected to bring widespread showers and
storms Monday into Monday night with a reinforcing cold front
pushing through the coastal waters Monday night. Additional Small
Craft Advisories may be needed for moderate to strong north to
northeasterly winds behind this front Monday night into Tuesday.

Fowler

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  43  50  41  49 /  80  10  30  60
Houston (IAH)  51  56  44  53 /  90  40  30  90
Galveston (GLS)  59  65  51  60 /  90  80  40  90

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk until 8 AM CST Sunday for TXZ436>439.

GM...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM Sunday to midnight CST Sunday
     night for GMZ330-335.

 Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM Sunday to 6 AM CST Monday for
 GMZ350-355.

     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CST Monday for GMZ370-375.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Fowler
AVIATION...Fowler
MARINE...Fowler