Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA
767 FXUS66 KHNX 111110 AFDHNX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hanford CA 310 AM PST Thu Dec 11 2025 .UPDATE...Updated Air Quality and Aviation sections. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Fog and low clouds will continue each night and morning across the San Joaquin Valley this week. Dense fog will also develop at times in the lower Sierra foothills, coastal ranges, and the Grapevine. 2. A gradual warming trend will occur across the mountains and desert this week, as the high pressure pattern continues over the region. && .DISCUSSION... Little change has been seen in the last 24 hours across Central California. With that, cold and cloudy conditions will persist across the San Joaquin Valley for yet another day. The ridge is now expected to build over the West Coast in the coming days and allowing the current weather pattern to hold firm over the region. Therefore, dry weather is expected through the end of the week and into the weekend. Outside of the San Joaquin Valley, temperatures across the Mountains and Kern Desert will continue to see a slow warming trend under the building ridge of high pressure. Over the next 2 to 3 days, probability of seasonal normal values across the valley will struggle with low percentage. On the contrary, outside of the San Joaquin Valley, the probability of reaching 65 to 70 degrees sit between 60 and 80 percent above the low clouds. Therefore, confidence is high that little change will be seen through the weekend. In the realm of precipitation, ensemble moisture analysis is still showing the blocking high maintaining its position over the Eastern Pacific, and placing the steering current in the direction of the Pacific Northwest. With little change in the next 2-4 day period, Central California will remain dry and covered in low clouds. Longer range ensemble analysis do show a change in the pattern with a hint toward the introduction of precipitation as early as next Tuesday (16 Dec 2025). Yet, uncertainty is still too high on the actual magnitude of the next storm. && .AVIATION... IFR ceilings and visibilities are expected to prevail for much of the San Joaquin Valley during the next 24 hours. LIFR conditions will also persist in the coastal ranges, Sierra foothills, and the Kern County mountains due to the low stratus deck. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail in the Sierra Nevada and in the Kern County mountain and desert areas over the next 24 hours. && .AIR QUALITY ISSUES... On Thursday December 11 2025, Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups in Fresno, Kern, Madera, and Tulare Counties. Fireplace/Wood Stove Burning Status is: No Burning For All in Fresno and Kern Counties. No Burning Unless Registered in Kings, Madera, Merced, and Tulare Counties. Burning Discouraged in Kern (Greater Frazier Park Area) and Sequoia National Park and Forest. && .CERTAINTY... The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium. Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback. && .HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM PST this morning for CAZ300-304- 308-313-316>322-334>336. && $$ Molina/BSO weather.gov/hanford