Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA
480 FXUS66 KHNX 181001 AFDHNX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hanford CA 150 AM PST Tue Nov 18 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... 1. A cold storm system will continue to move through the region through Wednesday with scattered showers focused over the mountains and snow levels dropping even further by Tuesday morning. 2. A weaker system may bring some more precipitation to the region again by Thursday into Friday. 3. The region looks to finally dry out by the weekend, though fog formation is possible during that time due to the abundant amount of moisture in the Valley at the moment. && .DISCUSSION... Upper level disturbance off the Southern California Coast continues to swing southeast this morning as moisture surging toward Central California. This surge will ensure another wet weather day as rain and snow at around 4000 to 5000 feet blanket Kern, Tulare and portions of Fresno County this Tuesday. With a much cooler air-mass over Central California, temperatures are expected to remain below normal as another round of wet weather crosses the region later in the week. While Probability of Precipitation (PoP) will begin to drop-off on Tuesday, continued wrap around moisture will keep Kern, Eastern Tulare and Eastern Fresno County in the higher PoP zone. Yet, as we lose the higher moisture source tap, accumulation will decrease on Tuesday. In addition, the cooler air-mass will now allow for increase snowfall coverage as the snow line drops to near 4000 feet. Ensemble do show the upper level disturbance exiting the region on Wednesday as the area receives a brief reprieve from the wet weather. Temperature-wise, Probability of Exceedance of reaching 65 degrees has values below 10 percent starting on Tuesday and continues until the end of the week. Therefore, temperatures will struggle to reach seasonal normal levels through the next storm. The next storm will have polar-maritime origins as the cooler air will be reinforced with lower snow levels. Ensemble Probabilities are lower with the next storm as confidence in precipitation amounts is low. Yet, confidence is higher on the storm entering Central California during the day period on Thursday, accumulation may end up be lighter. However, every bit of water is needed across the State as we end a new water year. After Friday, longer term ensemble analysis is showing drier conditions over the region. && .AVIATION... VFR/MVFR conditions will prevail for the next 24 hours with a 20-30 percent of IFR conditions between 11Z and 17Z on Tuesday. && .AIR QUALITY ISSUES... On Tuesday November 18, 2025, Fireplace/Wood Stove Burning Status is: Burning Discouraged in Fresno, Kern, Kings, Madera, Merced, and Tulare Counties, and Kern (Greater Frazier Park Area) and Sequoia National Park and Forest. && .CERTAINTY... The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium. Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback. && .HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM PST this evening for CAZ323-326>331. && $$ Public/Aviation....Molina weather.gov/hanford