822
FXUS64 KHUN 110302
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
902 PM CST Mon Nov 10 2025

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 900 PM CST Mon Nov 10 2025

 - Near record or record cold temperatures will continue tonight.

 - Temperatures will warm up through the week and into the
   weekend.

 - Next chance of rain will not be until Sunday into Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of tonight and Tuesday)
Issued at 900 PM CST Mon Nov 10 2025

Today felt like a taste of winter already with numerous locations
reporting flurries and frigid temperatures that only reached the
30s this afternoon. These daytime highs are so chilly that we will
set records for the daily low maximums. Previous records are: 43
degrees in 1950 at HSV and MSL. Cloud cover will continue to erode
this evening into tonight as drier air seeps in. Gusty winds will
taper down as the pressure gradient slacks, allowing for light
and variable winds overnight. This set up will let temperatures
dip into the teens to lower 20s overnight and into tomorrow
morning. These values will challenge record low temps of 22
degrees (1926) at HSV and 19 degrees (1913) at MSL. Without the
breezy winds like we had today, wind chills won`t be too much
lower than the actual temps. Regardless, stay warm by wearing
layers and bring pets inside.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday night through Thursday night)
Issued at 900 PM CST Mon Nov 10 2025

As the longwave trough that encapsulates much of the Eastern
CONUS swings northeastwards, an amplifying ridge builds on the
Western CONUS. At the sfc, high pressure builds across the
Southeast, providing breezy southwesterly flow and plenty of
sunshine. This will help us break the chill from our bones that
set in today/Monday and that will persist into Tuesday morning by
quickly "warming" us up into the upper 40s to lower 50s by Tuesday
afternoon. As previously mentioned, Tuesday morning lows will
challenge records: 22 degrees (1926) at HSV and 19 degrees (1913)
at MSL.

The warming trend will continue into mid week as the ridge expands
and we are placed in more of a west/southwesterly flow at low and
mid levels on Wednesday which will also start to return some
moisture. Highs on Wednesday will feel warm in the low to upper 60s
across the TN Valley with plenty of sunshine. There may be a weak
front that slides into the TN Valley on Thursday that is from a
displaced sfc low north of the Great Lakes, however there will not
be any impacts beyond a wind shift to the forecast area. In fact,
highs on Thursday should reach the mid to upper 60s. Lows will be
much more seasonable by Thursday night in the low to mid 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 900 PM CST Mon Nov 10 2025

Upper ridging and surface high pressure look to largely dominate
the Tennessee Valley for the first half of the long term period.
However, by late in the weekend and into early next week, a
shortwave trough looks to traverse the Midwest and into the Ohio
Valley. At the surface, a low pressure system is shown to move
over the Great Lakes and New England Sunday into Monday, with
another low pressure system developing over the lower Plains
moving into the ArkLaTex region to start the new work week. What
this means for local sensible weather is no rain through Saturday,
but a gradual warming of temperatures. Highs in the lower to mid
70s with lows in the 50s are forecast by Saturday/Saturday night,
a large change from earlier this week! However, by Sunday and
Monday is when chances of showers may return. We`ll be tracking
the trajectory and trends with regards to the aforementioned low
pressure system over the ArkLaTex early next week, as this will
have a significant impact on our rain chances. Stay tuned for
updates!

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 546 PM CST Mon Nov 10 2025

The cloud shield has been slow to erode this evening, so kept BKN
VFR coverage in for another few hours at KHSV. Gusts will slack in
the next few hours as well, leaving light and variable winds
overnight. That will be short lived however, as gusty winds (up to
20kts) will return around 15Z tomorrow and persist through the end
of the TAF period.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 919 PM CST Sat Nov 8 2025

Record cold temperatures are possible on the 10th through the
11th.

November 10:

Huntsville - Low maximum - 43 (1950) Low minimum 20 (1913)
Muscle Shoals - Low maximum - 43 (1950) Low minimum 24 (1933)

November 11:

Huntsville - Low maximum - 38 (1968) Low minimum 22 (1926)
Muscle Shoals - Low maximum - 39 (1894) Low minimum 19 (1913)

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JMS
SHORT TERM....JMS
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...JMS