888
FXUS64 KHUN 151113
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
513 AM CST Sat Nov 15 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 234 AM CST Sat Nov 15 2025

 - Near-record warmth possible on Saturday, with mostly sunny
   skies and a southwest wind that will gust up to 25 MPH.

 - Low clouds and a few light showers are expected early Sunday
   morning, ahead of a cold front that will bring a cooler/drier
   airmass into the region Sunday afternoon/evening. Cooler
   temperatures persist on Monday.

 - Chances for showers and a few thunderstorms will return on
   Tuesday, with greater coverage of rain and storms possible on
   Friday. Warm and humid conditions will remain in place for much
   of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 234 AM CST Sat Nov 15 2025

Today the trough up in Manitoba will phase with the anchored
trough in eastern Quebec, deflating the ridge between them. We
will see an increase in northwesterly flow aloft from this,
reaching 40-50kts. At the sfc, high pressure elongated across the
Southeast will sink southward as a cold front dips down from the
Midwest. The increase in pressure gradient will provide breezy
southwesterly flow to the TN Valley. Winds will be sustained at
10-15 MPH with gusts up to 25 MPH. Note, this is below Wind
Advisory criteria, but be sure to secure down any outdoor
decorations you may have up. This pattern will help temps become
abnormally warm for mid November, with highs reaching the low 70s
in NE AL to mid/upper 70s elsewhere today. For reference, normal
highs for this time of year are in the lower 60s. If WWA over
preforms, we will be approaching or able to tie record daily max
temps of 81 degrees (at HSV and KMSL).

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday night through Monday night)
Issued at 1054 PM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

Short range model consensus suggests that a frontal wave
(initially across the northern Great Lakes) will continue to
intensify as it tracks eastward into New England on Saturday
night. As this occurs, a partially modified maritime tropical
airmass (featuring dewpoints in the m-u 50s) will spread
northeastward across our CWFA to the south of a cold front
trailing southwestward from the cyclone. An increase in lower-
based stratus can be expected Saturday evening as this occurs,
with a few light showers or pockets of drizzle also possible
beginning late tomorrow evening in the northeastern corner of the
forecast area and expanding to encompass the entire region between
Midnight-6 AM Sunday. With the intensity of precipitation
expected to remain very light, we will keep POPs in the 10-20%
range at this point, with the greatest opportunity for wetting
rainfall across our eastern zones. Any lingering rain and low
clouds will quickly end across the southeastern portion of the
region late Sunday morning, as northerly winds in the wake of the
front advect a cooler/drier continental airmass southward. Warm
sector lows on Sunday morning will be very mild (55-60F range),
with highs later in the day reaching the u60s-l70s. As surface
high pressure becomes established across the northern TN Valley
Sunday night, calm winds will support lows of 35-40F, which could
end up being even cooler than this in the absence of cloud cover.

During the period from Monday-Monday night, a dampening 500-mb
shortwave trough will track east-northeastward from eastern CO
into the Mid-MS Valley along the northern rim of a strengthening
subtropical ridge centered across southern Mexico. As the related
surface low begins to travel eastward over the central High
Plains, light SE flow will return to the region on Monday morning
and increase Monday night as the decaying cyclone advances into
central MO. However, it appears as if the eastern edge of a plume
of richer Gulf moisture (extending from the TX Coast into the
Ozarks) will remain to our west through early Tuesday morning, and
the most likely scenario is for an axis of rain and thunderstorms
to setup from central AR northeastward into the Lower OH Valley
(along and north of a subtle warm front). Due to some lingering
uncertainty regarding the development of additional convection
south of the warm front (from eastern AR into western/Middle TN)
we will leave a 5-10% POP intact for our northern zones, but
trends are suggesting drier conditions with cooler highs (mid 60s)
on Monday and warmer overnight lows (45-50F) Monday night.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 1054 PM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

Global models continue to indicate that a dampening mid-level
trough will accelerate eastward over the Mid-Atlantic states and
offshore Tuesday/Tuesday night, with the decaying surface wave
predicted to shift into the southern Appalachians. Weak low-level
confluence in conjunction with the movement of the low coupled
with diurnal warming and the return of dewpoints in the u50s-l60s
may support development of showers and some thunderstorms
(particularly across the northern half of the region) on Tuesday.
However, it appears as if a layer of stable air in the mid-levels
will limit CAPE and keep the risk the risk for organized
convection rather low (in spite of marginally favorable mid-level
WNW flow of 35-45 knots and a WSW low-level jet of 30-35 knots).

Present indications are that the remnant confluence axis may
drift southward into the region on Tuesday night before returning
northward on Wednesday in response to lee cyclogenesis across the
southern High Plains that will become more pronounced with time as
an amplified southern stream trough ejects out of the
southwestern CONUS. Although low clouds and some showers will be
possible in this pattern, the greatest concentration of rain and
thunderstorms (especially from Wednesday night into Thursday) will
be displaced to our west and north (closer to the effective warm
front).

During the period from Thursday night into Friday, an area of low
pressure (initially across the southern High Plains) will
gradually intensify and accelerate northeastward into the Great
Lakes in conjunction with the southern stream trough. Although
there is still considerable uncertainty regarding when this will
occur, a surface trough trailing southward off the low may bring
an increasing risk for rain and thunderstorms to our region on
Friday. Although both low-level and deep-layer shear appear
conducive for organized storms at this point, instability may be
limited by widespread clouds and poor lapse rates. Nevertheless,
this is a system we will need to monitor closely over the coming
days. Highs and lows next week will remain very mild and in the
m-u 70s/m-u 50s respectively.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 513 AM CST Sat Nov 15 2025

VFR conditions will prevail at KHSV and KMSL through the TAF
period. Southwesterly winds will quickly pick up this morning and
become sustained around 10 kts with gusts 20-25 kts throughout the
day. After sunset, winds will remain elevated and wind shear
(40-45kts at ~2kft) becomes an issue that will persist until the
end of the TAF period. Shortly before sunrise on Sunday, low
scattered ceilings 1500-3000 ft could provide pockets of drizzle,
especially for KHSV.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JMS
SHORT TERM....JMS
LONG TERM....70
AVIATION...JMS