


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL
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104 FXUS64 KHUN 131810 AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 110 PM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025 ...New AVIATION... .NEAR TERM... (Rest of Today and Tonight) Issued at 110 PM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025 Temperatures have warmed up into the 75 to 80 degree range in most locations. Overall mixing of drier air aloft down to the surface is weaker than expected. That being said, we still could get dewpoints mix out a bit more maybe into the 46 to 50 degree range in some locations. Afternoon relative humidity could still drop to around 30 percent in a few locations south of the Tennessee River. Models hint at a few high clouds tonight into Tuesday morning. However, they should have little impact on temperatures and mainly affect NW portions of Alabama. Likely will continue to see fog develop in sheltered valley locations of NE Alabama again tonight, with some isolated patchy dense fog possible. && .SHORT TERM... (Tuesday through Thursday) Issued at 1138 AM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025 Not much change in the forecast as we head further into this week. The sub-tropical high over Texas continues to strengthen through Tuesday and control much of the central and eastern CONUS during that timeframe. That will mean continued dry conditions and warmer temperatures through Tuesday. Highs will likely climb into the 80 to 85 degree range in most areas of northern AL and southern middle Tennessee as a result Tuesday through Thursday. Return flow around the subtropical high should bring more low/mid level moisture into the area as well. This should keep lows a bit warmer only dropping into the lower to mid 50s generally. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through Monday) Issued at 1138 AM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025 The subtropical high moves ESE and weakens some toward the end of this week. However, the center/axis of the high will be closer to the Tennessee Valley during this period, so temperatures should warm despite the weakening high pressure into the lower to mid 80s. Continued dry conditions are expected, though morning lows due to low level moisture advection should increase into the mid 50s to lower 60s by the upcoming weekend. A break in the dry pattern looks to occur Saturday into Sunday over the Tennessee Valley as a strong cold front and associated longwave trough axis develops over the eastern CONUS. Models continue to show ample shear and forcing for thunderstorm development. However, instability (even elevated) is not very certain. Over northern Alabama and southern middle Tennessee, sometime Saturday night into Sunday looks like a wetter period. PWATS climb to between 1.4 and 1.7 inches and forcing is fairly deep and strong ahead of this cold front. So heavy rainfall might become a threat with this system. Strong to severe storms looks much more uncertain, though Sunday morning/early afternoon could be an issue. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 110 PM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025 VFR conditions are expected at both terminals through the TAF period. Stronger winds overnight along with a few high clouds should keep even patchy fog from affecting either terminal. Winds between 5 and 10 knots with higher gusts possible are expected on Tuesday. && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. TN...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...KTW SHORT TERM....KTW LONG TERM....KTW AVIATION...KTW