162
FXUS64 KHUN 222030
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
230 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

...New NEAR TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 922 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

 - Mostly dry weather forecast through Monday morning.

 - Medium to high chances of showers and thunderstorms Monday
   night into Tuesday night, with a low chance of severe
   thunderstorms.

 - Cooler temperatures moving in late next week (on and around
   Thanksgiving).

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Tonight)
Issued at 230 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

Clouds have largely dissipated throughout the TN Valley this
afternoon with diurnal heating contributing to temperatures
reaching the upper 70s in some locations. These temperatures are
about 15 degrees above normal for this time of year and are just a
few degrees below record highs. The record high for HSV is 79
degrees (1940) and the record high for MSL is 81 degrees (1913).
As sfc high pressure works into the area from the west, dry
conditions are forecast to continue. Lingering cloud cover should
dissuade fog formation overnight, however, a low chance of patchy
fog continues to exist in areas that experience clearing of cloud
cover. If any fog forms, it should dissipate shortly after sunrise
Sunday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday through Monday)
Issued at 922 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

Dry conditions remain Sunday with mostly sunny skies as clouds
begin to clear by the morning hours. An upper level closed low is
forecast to begin pushing eastward from the Baja California
region, bringing an upper level trough into the MS and TN Valleys
by Monday. In turn, cloud cover will increase through the
afternoon hours before rain chances are reintroduced. This will
be our main feature of concern through mid week as a frontal
boundary forces high chances of rain through our area Monday
night with a low chance of severe storms. More on this in the long
term below.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Friday)
Issued at 748 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

As the trough enters the MS Valley late Monday night, a 40-50kt
8h low level jet develops across the lower MS Valley. Dew points
in the 50s to lower 60s advect back into the region with a band or
line of showers and thunderstorms along a cold front. Once again,
weak lapse rates and limited CAPE values are indicated in
ensemble forecasts. Thus, confidence in a severe risk remain low
at this time. The cold front will bring a distinct cool down from
Wednesday into Friday. Highs on Thanksgiving Day and Friday will
only reach the lower to middle 50s (and cooler atop the higher
elevations). Morning lows Friday morning are projected to be in
the upper 20s to around 30.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1141 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

VFR conditions continue through today, however, MVFR conditions
are forecast overnight into Sunday morning as lowered ceilings
impacts the area. Light, westerly winds are forecast to become
very light and variable in direction overnight, which will
contribute to a low chance of patchy fog in areas where there`s
clearing. Confidence remains too low over the terminals to include
this in the TAF due to expected cloud cover.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HC
SHORT TERM....HC
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...HC