038
FXUS64 KHUN 190540
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
1140 PM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 954 PM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

 - A broken line of multicell showers and thunderstorms will move
   through the area overnight tonight with lightning and gusty
   winds being the main threat.

 - High (60-90%) rain and storm chances will return to the
   forecast Friday night with the passage of our next system.

 - Mostly dry conditions are forecast through the later half of
   the weekend, with additional rain chances returning early next
   week.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Tonight and Tomorrow)
Issued at 954 PM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

Our near term forecast will be driven by a weakening cut off low
moving through the Ohio Valley. An associated surface cyclone
currently located in the southern tip of Illinois with its
trailing cold front off to the SW, will follow a similar
weakening trend as both the surface cyclone and front progress
east. Currently, supercell and multicell clusters can be seen
along the TN/KY border along a prefrontal trough axis. These
storms are supported by 1000+ J/KG of CAPE and 40+ KTS of shear.
While these storms are forecast to continue SE through the night,
the supporting thermodynamics will wane as the storms enter the
area. The lingering question is how much they will wane.

With a very moist late fall airmass in place, as seen by dew
points in the 50-60 range, it won`t take much to support showers
and thunderstorms as the pre frontal trough moves through. CAMs
show storms entering the area around midnight and continuing SE
through sunrise tomorrow. They will likely move through as a
broken line of multicell clusters. 40-50 KTs of bulk shear look to
remain through the night making instability our limiting factor as
the trough axis moves through. We currently have a few hundred
J/KG of CAPE, highest in NW AL. While CAPE will decrease through
the night, it is likely 100-300 J/KG of CAPE will be present when
storms enter the area allowing from some stronger storms. With
CAPE decreasing through the night and as storms move SE, the
stronger storm threat should be very short lived, ending during
the early morning hours. Stronger storms will be capable of some
well defined mesocyclones making damaging winds the primary threat
with heavy rainfall and lightning being secondary threats. By 8Z
storms should have waned in intensity with general showers and
thunderstorms continuing SE, exiting the forecast area by the
start of the work day tomorrow.

While rain chances will drop off quickly off of 12Z, cloud cover
will remain through a majority of the day as the front stalls just
to our north. This will create rather muggy conditions with temps
in the mid 70s and dew points in the mid 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Thursday through Saturday)
Issued at 954 PM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

Ridging will briefly build in the mid levels from Wednesday night
through Thursday ahead of our next system. At the surface the
aformentioned frontal boundary will hang out through Thursday and
prompt overcast conditions. Rain chances don`t look to return
until Thursday afternoon when the frontal boundary finally pushes
through with a low chance of thunder due to the prolonged
overcast conditions. Low rain chances (20-40%) will remain in the
forecast from Thursday evening through Friday morning for areas
north of the TN River.

Our attention will then shift to Friday when our next system
looks to pass through the area. Through the end of the week, a mid
level low pressure system will eject from the SW CONUS through
the Ohio Valley, dampening as it does so. An associated surface
low and cold front will mirror this march across the CONUS.
Locally, the front looks to move through the area Friday evening
through Saturday morning bringing with it high rain and storm
chances. Along and ahead of the front, boundary layer moisture
will remain high with dew points in the 60s. This will support a
gradual increase in rain chances through the day on Friday from
west to east as the front draws closer. Prolonged overcast
conditions will likely limit instability on Friday making CAPE our
limiting factor again as we head into the overnight hours. LREF
models maintain a few hundred J/KG of MUCAPE overnight. This
paired with 40-50 KTS of bulk shear will be supportive of some
strong to potentially severe storms as the front moves through.
Damaging winds would likely be the main threat however additional
HIRES model coverage will aid in identifying any secondary
threats. Through the coming days as this system moves into HIRES
coverage we will begin to refine forecast details regarding
timing, threats, and intensity.

Low rain chances (20-30%) look to linger behind the front as well
as overcast conditions through most of the day on Saturday. The
winds will veer slightly to the NW, no significant airmass changes
will take place leaving our high temps in the 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 954 PM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

During the later part of the weekend, sfc high pressure will contribute
to mostly dry conditions over the Tennessee Valley. Zonal flow will
begin to shift by the early work week (likely Tuesday) as an upper
level trough and subsequent low pressure system shift eastward into
the area from the Deep South. In turn, rain chances increase into
the medium range (~40%) ahead of a frontal boundary. Have stuck with
blended guidance due to this system still being a week out and some
minor model disagreement. If you have outdoor interests early next
week, be sure to check back in for updates. High temperatures are
forecast to reach the mid 60s to low 70s during this time with
overnight lows in the upper 40s to lower 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1140 PM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

Low to medium chances of showers and storms are forecast between
7-11Z tonight at both terminals. These may bring reductions in VIS
and CIGs in the heavier showers. In addition, LLWS (from the
southwest at 40 knots) will be a concern through much of the
overnight until about 10-11Z. Outside of any storms, expect
southwesterly to westerly winds between 5-10 knots through most of
the TAF period. MVFR to IFR CIGs are anticipated early Wednesday
morning, improving back to VFR by mid to late afternoon.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RAD
SHORT TERM....RAD
LONG TERM....HC
AVIATION...26