854
FXUS64 KHUN 031625
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
1025 AM CST Mon Nov 3 2025

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1025 AM CST Mon Nov 3 2025

 - Low to medium chances of fog tonight into early Tuesday for
   much of north Alabama and southern middle Tennessee.

 - Dry conditions and a gradual warming trend will continue
   through Thursday night.

 - Conditions appear conducive for a risk of strong to severe
   thunderstorms at some point from Friday-Saturday night, but
   timing is highly uncertain. A much colder airmass will then
   follow in the wake of this system for early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of Today and Tonight)
Issued at 1025 AM CST Mon Nov 3 2025

Upper ridging over the Gulf coast and surface high pressure over
the ArkLaMiss will persist today and tonight, leading to no rain
and clearing skies. Even with mostly clear skies this afternoon,
with continued cold air advection from northwest flow aloft, highs
are only forecast to top out in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Make
sure to grab a jacket if you head outside today!

By this evening, winds will become light to calm. This, along
with mostly clear skies, will aid in radiational cooling and low
temperatures dropping into the upper 30s to around 40 degrees.
There are low chances of frost in southern middle Tennessee
tonight; however, the main concern will be low to medium chances
(20-40%) of fog for most of north Alabama and southern middle
Tennessee late tonight into early Tuesday morning. Just like this
morning in northwest Alabama and in Cullman County, some of this
fog may become dense. We will keep an eye on observations and
trends, as a Dense Fog Advisory may be needed. Make sure to be
cautious when driving if you encounter fog!

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday through Thursday Night)
Issued at 1025 AM CST Mon Nov 3 2025

Northwest flow aloft over the region (from upper ridging over the
Gulf coast) looks to become more zonal by Wednesday. Surface high
pressure will also gradually be pushed eastward by midweek due to
a low pressure system moving over the Great Lakes region.
Overall, no rain is forecast for the local area through at least
Thursday night. However, as the surface high shifts east, return
flow will usher more moisture back into the region and keep
temperatures mild. Highs will generally hover in the upper 60s to
lower 70s each day, with lows in the 40s through Wednesday night.
By Thursday night lows will be a little warmer, in the upper 40s
to lower 50s. Low chances of patchy fog are also forecast during
the late night/early morning hours Tuesday and Wednesday nights.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Sunday)
Issued at 901 PM CST Sun Nov 2 2025

Global models are in general agreement that two distinct
mid/upper-level waves will travel cyclonically around a deep/cold
core vortex dropping southward in the general vicinity of Hudson
Bay over the course of the extended period. However, there are
significant differences within the GFS/GEM/ECMWF model suites
regarding the track and amplitude of the initial disturbance, and
this will ultimately have a large impact on local weather
conditions as we head deeper into the extended forecast period.

Both the GFS/GEM suggest that the initial mid-level trough will
be considerably more amplified (compared to the ECMWF), which
would bring a cold front through the region on Friday
afternoon/evening. Present indications are that low-level moisture
will quickly surge northeastward ahead of the front, providing a
sufficiently warm/moist and unstable airmass for the development
of a squall line immediately ahead of the front. In the presence
of strong deep-layer shear (westerly mid-level winds of 50-60
knots) and low-level shear (WSW low-level jet of 30-40 knots), all
modes of severe weather would be possible in this scenario.

Due to factors mentioned above, guidance from the ECMWF suggests
that the first cold front will stall across KY/TN on Friday/Friday
night. However, it does suggest the development of a QLCS (within
a similar kinematic/thermodynamic environment) ahead of a much
stronger cold front predicted to arrive Sunday morning. Regardless
of solution, it appears as if the second wave will undergo
significant amplification as it digs across the northern Plains
and into the Mid-MS Valley Saturday/Saturday night, allowing a
cold/arctic airmass to quickly spread southward through the Great
Plains on Saturday night and eastward into the Gulf Coast states
on Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 527 AM CST Mon Nov 3 2025

A combination of dense fog and low stratus resulting in IFR to
LIFR conditions is impacting the terminals at the start of the
TAF period. The stratus is slowly moving south and west and is
currently anchored along and east of I-65 with fog to the west.
Fog should lift shortly after sunrise with the stratus taking a
bit longer to erode. Therefore, expect a return to VFR quicker at
MSL compared to HSV. By late this morning to early afternoon VFR
conditions return and continue through the end of the TAF period.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM....26
LONG TERM....70/DD
AVIATION...GH