537
FXUS64 KHUN 120312
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
912 PM CST Tue Nov 11 2025

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 912 PM CST Tue Nov 11 2025

 - Warming temperatures through late week and into the weekend.

 - Some rainfall could return late Sunday night into early next
   week, but there is a medium chance of heavy rainfall by
   midweek.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Tonight and Wednesday)
Issued at 912 PM CST Tue Nov 11 2025

Mostly clear skies will prevail tonight. Winds have waned a bit,
but are forecast to generally be between 5-10 mph sustained with
gusts to around 15 mph or so through the night. This will be
enough to keep any fog out of the forecast. We`ve also been
getting reports that folks can see the northern lights (aurora
borealis) from across the Tennessee Valley! If you do decide to go
outside to take a look, make sure to grab a jacket! Current
temperatures are in the 40s, with lows forecast to dip into the
30s later tonight.

As upper ridging slowly creeps eastward towards the Southeast and
surface high pressure builds over the northern Gulf, dry
conditions (no rain) will continue on Wednesday. As the pressure
gradient relaxes, winds will gradually slacken through the late
afternoon as well. It will be a bit warmer too, with highs
reaching the lower to mid 60s. Overall, no significant weather of
impact is anticipated. Enjoy your Wednesday!

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Wednesday Night through Friday Night)
Issued at 912 PM CST Tue Nov 11 2025

The aforementioned upper ridge looks to slowly build over the
region through late week. Although, a very subtle impulse is shown
to traverse the outer portion of the ridge over the Mississippi
Valley and down into the Tennessee Valley on Thursday. This
feature isn`t expected to bring much moisture, but will bring an
increase in clouds for Thursday. Additionally, surface high
pressure will dominate the Southeast for much of the week, but
begin to shift east slightly as a system develops over the western
CONUS. This will result in an increase in moisture for the
Tennessee Valley on Friday and into the weekend.

Overall, no rain is forecast through Friday night, but a warming
trend is expected through the week. Highs are forecast to increase
from the lower/mid 60s on Wednesday into the lower to mid 70s by
Friday. Lows follow a similar pattern, warming into the 50s for
much of the local area by Friday night.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 912 PM CST Tue Nov 11 2025

This weekend will start out with a busy upper level pattern.
There`s a trough off the southern part of the West Coast, another
one up in south central Canada and a third trough still anchored
in far Northeast U.S/eastern Quebec, with a ridge underneath it
all.

High pressure will keep us dry and warm on Saturday with breezy
southwesterly winds and partly cloudy skies pushing daytime highs
to unseasonably warm values in the low to mid 70s. On Sunday, the
trough in south central Canada will overcome the ridge and try to
phase in with the stubborn trough near Quebec. Its associated sfc
low in the Great Lakes will have a trailing cold front through the
OH Valley, the Mid MS Valley and into the Southern Plains. Right
now, looks like low chances of precip return Sunday night with
low/medium chances on Monday and Tuesday as the cold front gets
hung up on the OH Valley to Mid MS Valley. The question is on
exactly where that front will get held up which will affect our
precip chances. One feature that will effect the front`s location
is the now cut off low that lifts out of the Four Corners and into
the Plains on Monday. After that, there is a lot of model
disagreement on location, intensity and timing so have low
confidence for Tuesday. Regardless, looks like temps will be in
the upper 60s early next week with low/medium chances for precip,
but stay tuned for additional forecast updates.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 455 PM CST Tue Nov 11 2025

VFR conditions will prevail through the period, along with mostly
clear skies. The main concerns will be winds and LLWS. Sustained
southwest winds tonight look to hover between 5-10 knots, with
gusts to between 15-20 knots. LLWS from the southwest at around 40
knots is shown by guidance to begin around 1-2Z this evening and
persist through about 13-14Z Wednesday morning. Winds through
Wednesday morning will then become westerly and increase to around
10 knots, with gusts to between 15-20 knots as well. Through late
Wednesday afternoon winds will gradually slacken, with winds
dropping to below 10 knots in the evening.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 455 PM CST Tue Nov 11 2025

Moderate Risk for Much Above Normal Precipitation:

The Climate Prediction Center has included much of north Alabama
and southern middle Tennessee in a Moderate Risk for Much Above
Normal Precipitation for November 19-20th. Precipitation exceeding
1-2 inches is possible during this period.

More information on the CPC U.S. Hazards Outlook can be found at:
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats/threats.php

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM....26
LONG TERM....JMS
AVIATION...26