046
FXUS64 KHUN 151005
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
505 AM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 427 AM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025

Contrary to previous thinking, thunderstorms have increased and
maintained themselves in a narrow band across far NW AL. Cells
have been somewhat pulse in nature, but have also recycled and
are tending to train over the same areas resulting in 1-2 inches
of rain in some spots. If this trend continues, flooding will
become more of a concern. The storms are along a PW/instability
gradient and are being aided by a shortwave pivoting southwest
around the upper low along the southeast U.S. coastline.

Previous Discussion...
Issued at 136 AM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025

A weak shortwave was rotating southwest through TN into north AL
around an upper level low off the GA/SC coast. This was helping to
generated isolated showers and thunderstorms west of I-65 in TN.
The showers and thunderstorms have tended to die off quickly as
they approach or enter far northwest AL due to much lower CAPE
values further south. The chance of showers and thunderstorms will
continue to drop after sunrise will remain less than 10% in
northwest AL the rest of today. High temperatures will reach the
middle to upper 80s for most valley locations. Temperatures will
be a few degrees cooler atop the higher elevations along the
Cumberland Plateau, and could touch 90 degrees in a few spots of
northwest AL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday night through Wednesday night)
Issued at 929 PM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025

This week we will start off with an omega blocking pattern across
the CONUS. There will be a low pressure off the Southeast to Mid
Atlantic coast and an amplified ridge being squeezed into the
Great Lakes as low pressure in the Northern Plains and Northern
Rockies tries to slide eastward. A shortwave gliding southward
through the flow tomorrow afternoon could bring a low chance for
showers/storms, otherwise it should be another warm and dry day
across the TN Valley. The blocking pattern will persist into mid
week and conditions should remain dry, however, will have to
monitor if disturbances from the coastal low encroach close enough
to the TN Valley to pop a few showers/storms. Confidence is too
low to include any POPs for this in this forecast package. Highs
will remain above normal in the upper 80s to lower 90s but heat
index values should remain below 100 degrees. Regardless, stay
safe in the heat by taking breaks, staying hydrated and never
leaving people or pets in vehicles.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 929 PM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025

The blocking pattern will finally break down during the latter
half of the work week as the Mid Atlantic low weakens and lifts
northward. High pressure will keep conditions dry for Thursday,
but low chances of showers and storms return on Friday and into
the weekend as the other trough in the blocking pattern slides
into the Plains. Its surface low will lift into the Midwest, with
the associated cold front sliding into the Mid MS Valley. At this
time, it doesn`t look like the front will make it into the TN
Valley but stay close enough to keep a low chance (20-30%) in the
forecast through the weekend. Warmer than normal highs will linger
into Saturday with temps in the upper 80s to lower 90s. They will
cool a tad on Saturday, remaining below 90 degrees.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 505 AM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025

A narrow band of SHRA and TSRA in far northwest AL is forecast to
diminish and move to the south of the area this morning. VFR
flight weather conditions are then expected the remainder of the
period.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...17
SHORT TERM....JMS
LONG TERM....JMS
AVIATION...17