489
FXUS64 KHUN 102030
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
230 PM CST Mon Nov 10 2025

...New NEAR TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1104 AM CST Mon Nov 10 2025

 - Near record or record cold temperatures will continue today and
   tonight.

 - Cloudy skies and light snow flurries are expected for much of
   the region today, with a light dusting of snow possible in
   elevated terrain.

 - Wind chill values will remain in the lower-mid 20s for much of
   the day, but winds will diminish shortly after sunset allowing
   temperatures to fall into the upper teens-lower 20s tonight.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of Today and Tonight)
Issued at 230 PM CST Mon Nov 10 2025

There have been no significant changes to the near term forecast
since the update earlier this morning, as a layer of stratus
clouds (and sporadic episodes of light snow flurries) will
continue for the rest of the afternoon. Although some recovery of
temperatures has recently occurred across northwest AL (due to
partial clearing and limited insolation), cold air advection in
the low-levels should keep max temps in the 30s even in this
portion of the forecast area. With time, the western edge of the
cloud layer will begin to erode, with skies expected to become
clear for the entire forecast area by late this evening. This,
along with light-variable/calm winds, will support cold morning
low temperatures in the upper teens-lower 20s.

Previous Discussion:
An intense mid-level vorticity maxima will dig southeastward from
the Lower OH Valley into the southern Appalachians over the
course of the day, embedded within the flow around a large upper
low centered over the eastern Great Lakes. Modest synoptic scale
ascent related to this disturbance, coupled with a pocket of very
cold air at the 850-mb level (temperatures of -10 to -12C) and
steep low-level lapse rates has fostered the development of
overcast stratus and pockets of snow flurries across much of the
TN Valley. Due to low boundary layer dewpoints (in the lower
teens) and dry profiles in the dendritic growth zone, intensity of
the snow flurries should remain low, but with the potential for a
light dusting in the higher terrain of northeast AL/southern
Middle TN (where base reflectivity data from HTX indicates echoes
in the 15-25 dBZ range).

As the axis of the broader scale mid/upper-level trough shifts
eastward this afternoon, winds aloft will veer sharply to NNW and
increase into the 75-85 knot range, inducing strong subsidence and
a rapid clearing trend from SW-to-NE beginning by mid- afternoon.
However, this will likely not occur in time to allow for much
fluctuation in temperatures, with daytime highs expected to be
near current values in the 30-35F range for the entire CWFA
(breaking daily low MaxT records for November 10). Northwest winds
will also remain brisk for much of the day within the gradient
between a modifying arctic high building south-southeastward over
the southern Great Plains and a deepening surface low along the
coast of New England. Given the combination of cold temperatures
and sustained winds of 15-20 MPH (with occasional gusts up to 30
MPH), wind chills will remain in the l-m 20s for much of the day.

Overnight, low stratus clouds and pockets of snow flurries will
finally end across the far northeastern corner of the CWFA by 0-2Z
as the center of the arctic high to our west begins to shift
eastward along the central Gulf Coast. This will provide
light/variable-calm winds, and although a minor increase in high
clouds is anticipated after Midnight, lows should still manage to
reach the upper teens-lower 20s (slightly warmer in urban
locations and near large bodies of water).

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday through Wednesday night)
Issued at 1104 AM CST Mon Nov 10 2025

A longwave trough will remain positioned across eastern North
America for the duration of the short term forecast period,
downstream from an amplifying 500-mb ridge over the western CONUS.
This will maintain dry northwest flow aloft, which will weaken
with time as the trough (currently across our region) lifts
rapidly northeastward on Tuesday. In the low-levels, a remnant
surface high will remain intact across the northeastern Gulf and
adjacent portions of north FL, inducing a rapid increase in
southwesterly low-level return flow shortly after sunrise
tomorrow. Although periods of high clouds will continue for much
of the day, afternoon temperatures under mostly sunny skies will
rebound into the u40s-l50s (aided by an increase in west-
southwesterly flow at the 850-mb level). The warming trend will
continue from Tuesday night-Wednesday night, accompanied by a
notable increase in low-level moisture during the day on Wednesday
(when dewpoints will rise back into the mid 40s). Highs will
recover into the l-m 60s by Wednesday, with lows rising back into
the 35-40F range early Thursday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 1008 PM CST Sun Nov 9 2025

On Thursday, a trough will still be over the far Northeast and
Quebec while a ridge will be over the Rockies as a trough swings
into the West Coast. Closer to home, a cold front associated with
a clipper system in the Great Lakes will slip down into the TN
Valley. This will not bring much of a chance in temp, nor any
precip, but we will see that northerly wind shift. Daytime highs
are expected to reach the mid to upper 60s on Thursday.
Temperatures will climb even higher Friday and Saturday, into the
lower 70s, as the ridge axis reaches the OH and TN Valleys by
Saturday. Our next chance of rain could return as early as late
Saturday night into Sunday as that previously mentioned trough out
west now digs into the Plains and Midwest.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1146 AM CST Mon Nov 10 2025

Bkn-ovc stratus clouds and pockets of lgt snow flurries will
continue to impact much of the TN Valley today, along with a NW
wind of 13G23 kts. However, the base of the most prevalent cloud
layer should remain VFR (~5 kt), and with snow flurries expected
to be sporadic and occur with little-no impact at the terminals we
will not mention them in the TAFs attm. Conditions will improve
arnd 22Z as winds diminish and the cloud layer erodes from SW-to-
NE, with a period of clear skies and lgt/vrbl-calm flow
anticipated overnight. High-level clouds will return shortly
before sunrise and continue thru the remainder of the period, with
sfc flow becoming SW at 10G18 kts by 15Z.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 919 PM CST Sat Nov 8 2025

Record cold temperatures are possible on the 10th through the
11th.

November 10:

Huntsville - Low maximum - 43 (1950) Low minimum 20 (1913)
Muscle Shoals - Low maximum - 43 (1950) Low minimum 24 (1933)

November 11:

Huntsville - Low maximum - 38 (1968) Low minimum 22 (1926)
Muscle Shoals - Low maximum - 39 (1894) Low minimum 19 (1913)

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...70/DD
SHORT TERM...70/DD
LONG TERM...AMP
AVIATION...70/DD