968
FXUS64 KHUN 010010
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
610 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1030 AM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

 - A few bouts of rainy weather expected for the week ahead.

 - More cold rain, heavy at times, from Monday afternoon through
   Tuesday (90%-100% chance), low chances (~10-15%) for flooding.

 - Wind chill temperatures in the 20s at most locations the next
   few mornings, with freezing fog possible (20-30% chance) in
   some areas Wednesday morning.


&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Tonight)
Issued at 204 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

Over mostly overcast skies temps have struggled to warm today
with current temps in the low to mid 40s across the area. As of
around 2 PM, our furthest west observation site located in Muscle
Shoals is still reported overcast ceiling near 1000 FT. Just over
the border in Mississippi, clear skies can be seen on satellite
and are slowly filtering in from the west. This trend will
continue through the afternoon as the passing cold front loses
proximity and surface high pressure centered in the Plains
infiltrates from the NW. While flow aloft will remain zonal, winds
will back through the night at the surface from the WNW to the N.
This will allow cool continental air to be ushered into the area.
Under clear skies and with the presence of CAA, temps will drop
into the mid to high 20s tonight. Winds will be just strong enough
(around 5-8 MPH) to support wind chills in the low 20s. As such,
make sure to dress appropriately when leaving the house tomorrow
as it will be bitterly cold.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday through Wednesday)
Issued at 1030 AM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

The low-lvl frontal boundary that moves across the area this
morning will stall to our south. On Monday, this front will begin
to move back to the north as southerly flow develops ahead of
trough moving through the Great Plains. Isentropic analysis
suggests rainfall could return to southern portions of the area as
early as mid/late morning, but it`s more likely to occur in the
afternoon. If the column moistens sufficiently during the morning,
just as yesterday, a few sleet pellets could mix in with the
light rain with WBZ values below frz aloft in the low-lvls. An
enhanced sub-tropical upr jet will be associated with this next
trough, which indicates Pac moisture will be combining with
lower-lvl Gulf moisture. Ensemble guidance has wavered a little
regarding expected QPF amounts for this next rainfall event, but
mean/median amounts have been fairly persistent around 1-1.5
inches. This shouldn`t cause much in the way of hydro concerns,
but if amounts are closer to the higher end of guidance, exceeding
1.5 inches, then some minor flooding concerns may arise for
creeks and some TN River tributaries. Right now though,
probabilities for flooding conditions is still just around 10-15%.

Otherwise, rainfall will probably reach a peak in intensity and
coverage overnight Monday, with S/SE portions of the area likely
experiencing the heaviest rainfall. Colder air will once again
pour into the area on Tuesday as the rainfall gradually comes to
an end. On the plateau, the column may be sufficiently cold to
allow for some mixing with snow as the rain comes to an end on
Tuesday morning, but no accumulations are expected. Clouds may
tend to hang around for much of the day, with some breaks possible
in the afternoon, but temps will struggle to rise much (if at
all) into the lower 40s.

Deep NW flow on Tuesday will gradually turn to a zonal flow
pattern by Wednesday, but dry conditions are anticipated from
Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday with just a slight moderate in
temps. However, Wednesday morning will likely start out rather
cold, with temperatures expected to be in the low/mid 20s for most
locations. The prospects for fog given generally ideal conditions
will present a threat for freezing fog Wednesday morning, which
will need to be watched going forward.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 1000 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

Wednesday and Thursday will remain dry and chilly with high and
low temps hovering around 10 degrees below normal for early
December. Morning temps in the mid 20s to low 30s can be expected
with afternoon highs around 50 degrees. The next weather system is
expected late in the week which will be the next shot at any
potential rainfall and/or wintry precipitation. Ensemble
scenarios vary in terms of timing and strength of this system so
the finer details of the forecast remain to be seen but it will
definitely be something to keep an eye on in the coming days. Stay
tuned.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 610 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

MVFR CIGs at KHSV will shift east early in the period around 01z
leaving only OVC high clouds at or above 20k feet at the terminals
overnight. Northerly winds will prevail overnight becoming more
easterly between 070-130 degrees after 15z, remaining light at 8
knots or less. Conditions will deteriorate quickly as -RA moves in
after 21z Monday. CIGs could drop as low as 500-1000 feet between
22z-00z along with reductions in vsbys to 3-6 miles in -RA BR.
Confidence in timing is low to medium so have not included IFR
conditions in this package but will likely need to be added in the
06z or 12z packages.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RAD
SHORT TERM....KDW
LONG TERM....KG
AVIATION...KG