947
FXUS63 KICT 081156
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
556 AM CST Sat Nov 8 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A cold front will usher in cooler conditions tonight-Monday.

- Strong northwest winds may gust to around 50 mph at times in
  central Kansas this afternoon.

- Dry and mild conditions will return Tuesday through Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 147 AM CST Sat Nov 8 2025

A clipper system digging over the Northern Plains tonight is progged
race southeastward over the Central Plains late today before
emerging over the Middle Mississippi Valley area tonight. This
feature will drive a strong cold front southward across the area
today. We continue to see a post-frontal airmass characterized by
steep low-lvl lapse rates, decent cold air advection and large 3-6
hr pressure rises supporting strong northwest winds in the wake of
the frontal boundary. Time/height X-sections of wind/mixing layer
height suggest some potential for 40-45 knot wind gusts in central
KS. HREF neighborhood probabilities for wind thresholds exceeding
wind advisory criteria in central KS remain fairly low or around 30
percent with higher probabilities remaining further north and west
over the Central High Plains.

It`ll remain windy tonight but speeds will diminish from afternoon
peak speeds. Wind chills will fall into the teens and 20s
although air temperatures tonight are expected to range from
the upper 20s in central KS to the mid 30s in far southeast KS.
A period of stratus may also impact much of south central and
southeast KS tonight as the pv anomaly rotates over the area but
most of the column is progged to remain dry with large-scale
forcing for subsidence overspreading the area in the wake of the
trough and no precipitation is anticipated.

Sun-Mon...The coldest air of the season will arrive Sun-Mon with
highs struggling to reach 40 in some areas on Sun. High pressure at
the surface is progged to settle over central and south central KS
early on Monday allowing for strong radiational cooling with lows
falling into the teens in many areas. Temperatures will begin to
moderate on Monday as southerly low level flow returns. Afternoon
highs near 50 are possible in central KS while those in far eastern
Kansas see another day with highs in the lower 40s.

Above normal temperatures are expected to quickly return to the area
by Tue while persisting through the remainder of the upcoming work-
week as the mid/upper ridge slowly builds eastward into the Great
Plains. Dry conditions will also prevail through the period.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 538 AM CST Sat Nov 8 2025

Some mid and high clouds will impact the area this morning with
another transient round of MVFR cigs possible in the 06-11Z
window for parts of south central and mainly southeast Kansas.
Otherwise, increasing northwest winds are anticipated today in
the wake of a cold front. Some wind gusts around 40-45 knots may
be possible in central KS before subsiding this evening. Breezy
northwest winds will prevail tonight with low probabilities for
MVFR cigs impacting KSLN, KICT and KCNU in the 06-12Z window
but confidence remains too low to mention in TAFs at this time.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 147 AM CST Sat Nov 8 2025

Northwest winds will increase to 25 to 35 mph with gusts to 45 mph
over parts of central Kansas this afternoon. Strong winds will
combine with minimum afternoon relative humidity around 25 percent
resulting in a very high grassland fire danger.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MWM
AVIATION...MWM
FIRE WEATHER...MWM