212
FXUS63 KICT 190455
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1055 PM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain chances start to increase late Wed night into Thu
  morning with a few storms possible over the Flint Hills into
  southeast KS.

- Widespread rain likely Thu afternoon through Friday, with most
  locations picking up between a half inch and an inch of
  rainfall, with higher amounts possible over southeast KS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 211 PM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

Water vapor imagery currently shows an upper impulse tracking
out of the Mid Mississippi Valley and into the Southern Great
Lakes region. At the same time a more robust upper low is
approaching the Southern CA coast. This leaves weak upper
ridging moving into the Plains. At the surface, weak cold front
extends from central MO into southeast OK.

Surface winds will gradually come around to the east by early
Wed morning setting up some upslope across our western flank.
This may result in some patchy fog developing, especially
across central KS. Not out of the question that we may see some
over the Flint Hills into southeast KS, but increasing high
clouds may limit the coverage some.

Western CONUS upper low will start to shear out some as it
tracks across Southern CA into Baja on Wed into Wed evening.
This will allow return flow to setup across the Southern and
Central Plains. By late Wed night there is good model agreement
that 850-700mb moisture transport will ramp-up enough to
generate some precip over the Flint Hills and especially
southeast KS with this activity lingering into Thu morning.
There also looks to be enough elevated instability to get a few
storms with enough effective deep layer shear to get some
hailers mixed-in with this activity late Wed night into Thu
morning.

As this wave starts to lift out across the Southern Plains, it
will take on a negative tilt, increasing upper diffluence
across the region. At the same time, warm front will also lift
north into central/northern KS by early Thu evening. This will
result in widespread showers and a couple storms to overspread
the area in the late Thu afternoon into Thu night time frame.
Much of precip will continue through much of the day Fri as the
upper impulse slides across northern OK across southern KS. PW
values will likely be around 150% of normal for this time of
year for Thu-Fri. Currently looking at widespread half inch
rainfall amounts for early Thu morning through Friday with a
very good chance many locations see around an inch or more. The
higher amounts through this period look to be over southeast KS,
which will see rain first by Thu morning.

By Sat morning, what is left of this wave will be quickly
departing into the Ohio Valley, with yet another deep upper low
tracking across Southern CA. This will provide one more very
comfortable weekend with slightly above normal highs for both
Sat and Sun as they climb into the upper 50s around 60 degrees.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1052 PM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

VFR conditions continue across the area early this morning.
However, some locations north of I-70 are starting to experience
some minor visibility reductions. MVFR to IFR vis is still forecast
for all TAF sites Wednesday morning. That being said, denser fog
is likely to be more localized, so some sites could see more vis
reductions than currently presented in the TAFs. Therefore,
some adjustments are likely with the 06Z TAF issuance.

After 15Z Wednesday morning, conditions should improve to VFR
across the area. Winds will be relatively light and out of the
southeast for much of the day on Wednesday.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RBL
AVIATION...JC