789
FXUS63 KICT 240106
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
706 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Off-and-on showers begin this evening and last through Monday
  evening.

- Mild through Monday, with cooler air arriving on Tuesday.

- Rain chances return this coming weekend alongside even cooler
  temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 222 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

Current water vapor imagery and RAP analysis indicate a strong
mid/upper trough situated over the Four Corners and continuing its
track eastward. At the surface, southerly winds have been observed
so far today as high pressure currently centered over Missouri
slides toward the Ohio River Valley.

The aforementioned trough will eject out of the Rockies and
into the Central Plains later this afternoon and evening. This
feature will promote the development of a band of showers
sweeping across the area from west to east heading into the
overnight hours. Per prior forecasts, initial rain accumulations
through Monday morning will likely remain around or below 0.10"
given the relatively-quick pace of the system. Another round of
rain is anticipated to commence along the backside of the
system through Monday morning and afternoon with short-term
models indicating broad isentropic ascent ahead of an oncoming
weak cold front. All told, higher rain totals for the event look
to reside in southeast Kansas, with HREF probabilities of at
least 0.25" in the 60-80% range especially along and east of the
Kansas Turnpike. Rain will end from west to east by late
afternoon and early evening as forcing continues progressing to
the east.

Midlevel energy rolling east across the Northern Plains will
bring a cold front through the forecast area on Tuesday. This
will knock afternoon high temperatures into the low 50s across
portions of central Kansas while southeast Kansas should see
another day of low/mid 60s ahead of the boundary. Additionally,
the associated deepening surface low will work to tighten the
pressure gradient across the region and further result in gusty
winds throughout the day. Global models continue to highlight
deep mixing to an 850-mb 35-40 kt jet which indicates the
potential for gusts up to 45 mph in central and south central
Kansas. However, with ensembles (EPS/NBM) indicating relatively
low confidence (20%) in gusts this strong to this point, a fair
bit of uncertainty remains with these winds. Regardless, the
approaching airmass will look to linger through the end of the
week and keep seasonably cool highs (40s and low 50s) in place.

Long-range models bring the next system to the forecast area by next
weekend and hint at the potential for rain and even a few snowflakes
across the area. Furthermore, confidence is beginning to increase
in Arctic air making its way into the region toward the beginning
of December per global deterministic and ensemble guidance.
Confidence in specific details remain low at this extended
range, so trends will need to be monitored as additional
information comes into focus.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 704 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

A line of showers will move across the area this region followed
by low clouds filling in over the area. Cigs look to drop into
the IFR category with chances of drizzle developing later
tonight. This will create poor aviation conditions during the
overnight hours and linger into the morning.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JWK
AVIATION...CDJ