818
FXUS63 KICT 202016
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
Issued by National Weather Service Topeka KS
216 PM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widespread rain this evening into Friday, with additional rain
  chances to start next week.

- Seasonable high temperatures (50s and 60s) through the beginning
  of next week.

- Seasonably cool high temperatures (40s and low 50s)
  beginning Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 206 PM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

Current water vapor imagery and RAP analysis this afternoon depict
strong zonal flow aloft over the Ohio River Valley ahead of a
mid/upper trough ejecting out of the Rockies. At the surface, a warm
front ahead of this latter feature spans across southern Kansas as a
weak cold front stretches from northwest Kansas to the Great Lakes.

PRECIPITATION: The aforementioned warm front is progged to continue
shifting northward through the forecast area this afternoon and
evening. Widespread rainfall is anticipated in the wake of this
boundary as the associated surface low tracks through Oklahoma and
into southeast Kansas by Friday morning. Additional precipitation in
the deformation zone will continue throughout the day as the system
moves east into Missouri by late Friday/early Saturday. All told,
HREF probabilities hold a majority of the forecast area with high
confidence (70-90%) of total rain accumulations greater than a half
inch, and reasonable high confidence (50-80%) of totals greater than
one inch primarily north of US-56 and especially along/north of I-70.
West/northwest flow aloft is expected to resume in the wake of the
upcoming system which should keep the area dry through most of the
weekend.

Mid/long range models highlight the arrival of a mid/upper
shortwave Sunday evening that will likely bring additional chances
(60-80%) for rainfall through Monday. NBM probabilities at this point
highlight southeast Kansas with the highest chances (40-50%) of
receiving up to another half inch of rainfall, while areas in central
and south central Kansas will likely see no more than a quarter inch
with this next system. Mid level ridging is then progged to resume
by midweek which should keep the region dry heading into the weekend.


TEMPERATURES: Near-normal temperatures are anticipated through early
next week with afternoon highs in the 50s and low 60s while
overnight lows dip into the 30s and 40s. The arrival of a strong cold
front on Wednesday will look to bring chilly temperatures to the
area, with below-normal high temperatures in the 40s and lows in the
20s and 30s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1211 PM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

Main aviation concerns will be low ceilings increasing along with
shower/storm chances overspreading the entire area.

Currently have a cold front that stretches from northern MO across
north-central KS. Meanwhile an unseasonably moist airmass is slowly
working north across OK and far southern KS. MVFR cigs are currently
situated across southern KS and will continue to slowly lift north.
Widespread showers and a few storms will start to overspread the area
from south to north late this afternoon and especially this evening
as upper difluence moves over the Plains. Confidence is high that all
sites will see showers along with IFR/LIFR cigs this evening into
Fri morning.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JWK
AVIATION...TOP