932
FXUS63 KICT 151136
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
536 AM CST Sat Nov 15 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Patchy fog possible this morning, especially across the Flint Hills

- Continued above normal temperatures

- Most dry conditions are expected into early next week; rain
  chances return for the mid to latter portions of next week&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 230 AM CST Sat Nov 15 2025

As of 230 AM Saturday morning, zonal midlevel has emerged across the
central Plains with troughing across the northern Plains and ridging
across southern Plains. An attendant surface trough extends from
northern MN through portions of west-central KS. A notable
temperature gradient exists across the state with temperatures in
the 40s behind the trough across far western KS to near 60 across
southeast KS. The main concern through the short term is fog
formation through mid-morning. The most likely area for fog
development is across the Flint Hills where dew point
depressions are the smallest (2-3 degrees) and wind speeds are
the lightest (less than 5 mph). This axis aligns well with the
latest HREF probabilities for visibilities less than a half of
a mile (40-50%). Any lingering fog will scatter by mid-morning
as the aforementioned surface trough slides across central and
eastern KS. Winds will shift to the northwest with gusts near 20
mph. Despite the northwesterly, little airmass modification is
expected with 850 mb temperatures decreasing only 1-3 degrees C.
As a result, another afternoon with unseasonably warm
temperatures as highs remain the 70s.

Transitioning into tonight and Sunday, an area of surface high
pressure will progress into central and eastern KS. Light winds and
clear skies are expected with its arrival. Overnight lows will range
from the low to mid 40s. The area of high pressure will slide east
of the area Sunday afternoon, allowing southerly flow to return with
high temperatures topping out in the mid 60s to near 70. A few rain
showers cannot be entirely ruled out very late Sunday night into
Monday as a compact shortwave trough, ejects from the southwest US
into the Plains. Though the strongest baroclinic zone will setup
across northern KS, NE, and into MO/IA. This unfortunately keeps the
best rain chances north and east of the forecast area. The best
chances for widespread rainfall continue to be tied to a stronger
midlevel trough passage for the mid and latter portions of next
week. Stay tuned.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 532 AM CST Sat Nov 15 2025

Patchy fog continues to impact portions of south-central KS and
the Flint Hills. To this point, the only terminal impacted has
been ICT with occasional periods of VSBY as low as 2SM. This
will continue to be the case through 14-15Z. A weak cold front
will move through the terminals later this morning, shifting
winds to the north at 10-15 kt. Wind speeds will go light (less
than 6 kt) and variable near 00Z this evening.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BRF
AVIATION...BRF