137
FXUS63 KICT 162052
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
252 PM CST Sun Nov 16 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above normal temperatures continue through Thursday followed
  by near normal temperatures.

- Mostly dry conditions will prevail through Tuesday with shower
  and storm chances returning Wednesday to Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 251 PM CST Sun Nov 16 2025

Current water vapor imagery shows weak upper-level ridging
influencing the Northern and Central Plains with an upper low over
the southwestern CONUS. At the surface, high pressure sits over the
Upper and Middle Mississippi Valley.

Tonight into Monday morning, a shortwave trough is progged to move
into the Central Rockies. The chances of drizzle are very low given
the lack of low-level saturation and drier air near the surface.
However, it is possible for low clouds to develop Monday morning in
our area, shifting east as we move into Monday afternoon. The
associated surface low to the aforementioned trough will move into
western Kansas by Monday afternoon, increasing southerly winds in
our area with highs rising into the lower 70s. The surface low
should move into Missouri by Tuesday morning. This will make a small
chance of drizzle possible Monday night into Tuesday in southeast
Kansas as dewpoints rise back into the upper 50s. Higher chances
will remain east of our area where better low-level moisture is
forecast.

Weak upper-level ridging will influence our area Tuesday and
Wednesday with above normal temperatures persisting. Afternoon highs
will continue to be in the 60s to low 70s Tuesday and Wednesday. The
next upper-level trough is progged to move into the Desert Southwest
on Wednesday night. Chances for rainfall will start to increase on
Wednesday night as WAA/moisture advection increases. Dewpoints are
likely to rise into the upper 50s to lower 60s as the ECMWF and GDPS
recent runs indicate. However, there is a notable between these
models compared to the GFS. The GFS keeps richer moisture generally
south of our area with higher dewpoints only in southeast Kansas.
Similarly, instability follows the same trend with ECMWF showing
values of 1500+ J/kg MUCAPE in south-central KS versus the GFS is
roughly around 500 J/kg MUCAPE in southeast KS. Effective wind shear
is generally between 35-45 kts making a severe storm possible if
instability can be obtained. The best chances for widespread
precipitation seem to be Thursday into Friday, as ensembles have the
highest probabilities generally along and south of the turnpike, but
variability in models has lead to low confidence in timing.
Outside of precipitation, near normal temperatures are forecast
to return late this week with highs in the 50s on Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1129 AM CST Sun Nov 16 2025

Southeasterly winds between 10-12 knots are expected this
afternoon. Winds will diminish some but remain out of the
southeast overnight. Increasing moisture overnight could lead to
some MVFR cigs, but confidence remains low regarding coverage.
Clouds will diminish and winds will increase and turn southerly
between 12-15Z on Monday morning.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...GC
AVIATION...AMD