089
FXUS63 KICT 091743
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1143 AM CST Tue Dec 9 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Unseasonably warm temps today, with 60s likely for most
  locations. Warm temps will quickly return for Thursday, with
  highs again getting back into the 60s.

- Colder air will start to move into the area Friday, with a
  more substantial surge of cold air moving-in for Saturday and
  especially Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 311 AM CST Tue Dec 9 2025

Currently have northwest flow aloft setup through most of the
CONUS with water vapor imagery showing an upper impulse sliding
across the Great Lakes region. Meanwhile, a more robust upper
wave is about to move into the Northern Rockies. At the surface,
high pressure extends from the Lower Mississippi Valley through
the Appalachians.

Upper perturbation over the Northern Rockies will quickly track
southeast today and will be moving into the Northern Plains by
this evening. As this wave passes off to the north, west and
southwest winds will provide great downslope conditions this
afternoon, boosting highs into the 60s. Warmest temps today will
be west of I-135, where the deeper mixing will be located. If
we can get mixing deep enough, it`s not out of the question that
our western fringes could approach 70 degrees this afternoon,
with a great chance that most areas reach the 60s.

By Wed morning, upper impulse will be tracking southeast across
the Mid Mississippi Valley with a weak cold front pushing
through the Plains. This will knock highs down into the low 50s
for Wed, which is still several degrees above seasonal highs. We
will get back into more good downslope for Thu which will push
highs back into the 60s for most areas.

GFS and ECMWF have come into better agreement for the Fri-Sun
time frame which does lead to some higher confidence. They both
have a weak upper wave tracking out of southern Manitoba and
into the Western Great Lakes by Thu night. This will allow
another cold front to push through the forecast area by Fri
afternoon. However, the more impressive surge of cold air will
arrive on Sat, as a more impressive shortwave rotates out of
south central Canada and into the Upper Mississippi
Valley/Western Great Lakes by Sat evening. So confidence is high
in below normal temps for both Sat and Sun, with highs Sun
struggling to make it above freezing. Just like the last couple
of weeks, the cold air will not last long, as we get back to
seasonal temps by Mon. Confidence also remains high that we are
not looking at any precip events through the next 7 days, with
the best snow chances staying to the north.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1140 AM CST Tue Dec 9 2025

A cold front will arrive tonight allowing winds to the veer to
the northwest. Meanwhile, a developing LLJ will also result in
low level wind shear after 04-05Z. The LLWS will persist into
the early morning hours on Wed while VFR prevails through the
period.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RBL
AVIATION...MWM