701
FXUS62 KILM 261848
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
148 PM EST Wed Nov 26 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
An arctic front, moving through tonight, will bring well below
normal temperatures and much drier air Thanksgiving Day through
Saturday. High pressure will move off the coast by Sunday as a
cold front approaches. Rain chances increase into next week as
a wave of low pressure moves up the Southeast coast.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A two-staged cold front will push through this evening. The
lead boundary will have some baroclinicity but is mostly a wind
shift, especially compared to the second. And although the
second front will start to usher in lower temperatures and
dewpoints, the mega- cold advection is a bit delayed into
Thursday when 850mb flow finally goes north of west. The CAA
partially offset by the return of sunshine will flatten the
daytime temperature curve, which is expected to peak in the mid
to upper 50s. Such highs represent out minimum averages that
occur in early January.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Deep low over the Great Lakes and high strung out from the Upper
Plains to the lower Mississippi Valley will continue to produce
a deep flow of very cold and dry air into the Carolinas Thurs
night into Fri. As the trough axis aloft clears the coast, a
reinforcing shot of cold and dry air will reach the area Thurs
night into Fri. Overnight lows will be below freezing most
places inland of the direct coast Thurs night. High temps on Fri
will not even reach 50 degrees across most of the area in
continued CAA.

Looks like 850 temps bottom out Fri aftn below -7c before
rebounding Fri night into Sat as the mid to upper low lifts off
to the northeast with height rises. A more zonal flow aloft will
set up Fri night into the weekend, but the position of the high
over the western Carolinas should provide better radiational
cooling. Therefore expect the coldest night, with temps in the
low to mid 20s and possibly lower across traditionally colder
spots.

Overall, a very cold and dry period. As the driest air reaches
the area on Fri in gusty NW winds and dewpoints bottom out in
the teens Fri aftn, could see some Fire weather concerns.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Although the air mass will begin to modify over the latter half
of the weekend, overnight lows will continue below normal, with
most places in the low to mid 30s Sat night. High pressure will
shift eastward making it off the coast to the north of our area
Sat night into Sun as next system approaches from the west. A
wedge pattern may set up with high pressure continuing to extend
back into the inland Carolinas and coastal trough developing.
This should lead to weak isentropic lift producing possible pcp
inland, mainly west of local area. This pattern will break
quickly as cold front approaches by Sun aftn. Therefore expect
warming on Sun in southerly return flow by aftn but shallow cool
air should make it south by Mon as front drops south. The
shallow cool air will be overrun by warm moister air aloft as
deepening mid to upper trough to the west provides increasing SW
flow aloft. A wave of low pressure should help provide decent
QPF into Tues, before lifting north and out of the area by
midweek. Temps will be relatively warmer, but mainly near or
below normal after a slightly warmer Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR. A  strong front moving through early tonight will be veering
the wind, which will be the only FM groups through the forecast
cycle and beyond.

Extended Forecast...Brief sub-VFR possible early next week.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Thursday...SCA having a bit of difficulty verifying but
with the impending frontal wind shift there could be some better
alignment in the vertical for an increase in gustiness this
afternoon. Otherwise the remainder of the period will feature
breezy but sub-advisory NW winds in an increasingly strong CAA
regime. A minor SE swell is noted in wave bulletins but the 3-4
second wind chop will be the dominant wave.

Thursday night through Monday...A reinforcing shot of cold and
dry air will come Thurs night into Fri with some gusts up to SCA
thresholds, but overall, should remain sub-SCA. High pressure
over the Appalachians early Sat will shift off the NC/VA border
by Sat night into Sun with winds shifting around from more
offshore Thurs night into Fri to onshore Sat into Sun. Seas
should remain 2 to 3 ft most of the period. A southerly return
flow should set up briefly on Sun ahead of a cold front, before
coming back around to the north as front moves south by Mon.
Then a wave of low pressure could move up the Southeast
Coast late Mon into Tues with increasing winds and seas.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for AMZ250-
     252.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...MBB
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...MBB
MARINE...MBB/RGZ