569
FXUS62 KILM 070622
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
222 AM EDT Tue Oct 7 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain northeast of the area through
Wednesday. A cold front will bring an end to the warm stretch of
weather beginning Thursday. Cool temperatures to follow for end
of the week, with an offshore low possibly increasing rain
chances next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Latest sfc analysis shows 1026 mb high pressure centered well off to
the NE with a weak coastal trough off the Carolina coast. Similar to
yesterday morning, isolated light showers are developing offshore
this morning and expected to spread onshore over the next several
hours in the moist low-level onshore flow. Not anticipating a
widespread or heavy rainfall as mid levels remain rather dry and a
no larger scale forcing mechanism is discernible. Otherwise,
becoming dry everywhere during the daytime period with partly to
mostly sunny skies and temps slightly above normal for early
October...highs in the low/mid 80s with lows tonight in the mid/upr
60s.




&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A cold front will move across the area Wednesday with
pops remaining consistent hovering around high chance to likely. For
Thursday expect a somewhat raw day when compared to recent days with
strong northeast winds with low overcast skies. Any pops will more
or less be confined to coastal areas and offshore. Temperatures will
go from highs in the lower to middle 80s Wednesday to just above 70
Thursday. Blustery lows will dip into the middle to upper 50s.


&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Still a number of solutions with regards to a coastal
or near coastal storm which could affect the forecast area for
several days. Wind driven rain perhaps heavy remains a possibility
especially with the closer ECMWF solutions while the GFS is more to
the east. Various ensemble members of each suite are somewhat
erratic. The official forecast primarily driven by the NBM remain
more muted moreso with the rain. The winds seem to certainly be in
place. Finally its worth noting that while the system appears to be
more baroclinic in nature...the slow movement in some cases due west
in time could hint at a hybrid system although impacts should be
more a nor`easter in nature. Cool temperatures throughout the
period.


&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Mainly VFR through the 06Z TAF period. Onshore flow near the coast
will bring isolated showers and the potential for a brief
restriction this morning, similar to yesterday morning. Patchy fog
is possible late tonight over inland areas, but clouds and onshore
flow will lead to low confidence in the fog occurring.

Extended Outlook...VFR conditions prevail most of the time, with
rain chances returning starting Wednesday afternoon as a cold front
approaches from the west.


&&

.MARINE...
Through Tonight...
Quieter marine conditions than previous days as
the 11-13 second swell continues to slowly diminish and E to SE
winds are only ~10 kt. Expect 3-5 ft seas, primarily consisting of
ESE 8 second swell.

Wednesday through Saturday...
The main story for the marine community remains the rugged
conditions that will develop from late Wednesday onward as a storm
develops off the coast and strong high pressure centered well off to
the northeast. Strong small craft conditions are all but a given
from Thursday onward with perhaps gale conditions as well.
Significant seas on the order of 4-8/9 feet from nearshore to outer
waters offer no surprises with the persistent strong winds.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Onshore flow and high astronomical tides due to the recent full moon
will bring minor tidal flooding with each morning high tide, and
possibly the evening high tides as well, across most of the beaches
and along the lower Cape Fear River including downtown Wilmington,
through at least Friday.

Rip currents: High rip current risk is in effect for SC beaches in
our area due to 3-5 ft SE swell continuing to impact our beaches.
May see high rip current risk return Thursday into the weekend for
beaches north of Cape Fear due to strengthening ENE swell and a
developing low pressure system off the coast.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Coastal Flood Advisory from 6 AM to 10 AM EDT this morning for
     NCZ106-108-110.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until noon EDT today for NCZ107.
SC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for SCZ054-
     056.
     High Risk for Rip Currents from 6 AM EDT this morning through this
     evening for SCZ054-056.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...MAS
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...MAS
MARINE...MAS/SHK
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MAS