992
FXUS62 KILM 101153
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
653 AM EST Wed Dec 10 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Seasonable temperatures today will be followed by a dry cold
front later today, ushering in colder air for Thursday. Friday
begins a warmup leading to near normal temperatures for the
weekend before another dry cold front on Sunday brings a rush
of modified arctic air to start the workweek.

&&

.UPDATE...
Freezing Fog Advisory out for Coastal Georgetown county.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure will shift to our south through today ahead of a cold
front moving through late tonight. A strong shortwave will move
through in the afternoon with 925mb flow ~40 kts. Have increased
wind gusts over land because of this, afternoon/evening wind gusts
25-30 mph. The frontal passage will be dry but we`ll see a stream of
high clouds push through with the shortwave ahead of it.
Temperatures will be warmer today due to the increase SW flow ahead
of the front, highs largely in the mid 50s and lows in the 30s, most
spots above freezing.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Cold and dry air will be ushered into the Carolinas behind
exiting cold front Thurs. Deep NW flow early Thurs will flatten
out aloft through Friday with H5 heights rebounding beginning on
Friday. The 850 temps bottom out through Thurs aftn down near -5
C. Overall, a dry but cold day on Thurs with temps struggling to
get to 50. Winds will weaken later on Thurs into Fri as gradient
relaxes. Expect decent radiational cooling Thurs night with
overnight lows near or below freezing. NW winds on Thurs will
back around to the W to SW on Fri as high pressure migrates
across the South. This will lead to warming across the area with
temps rebounding to the mid to upper 50s after a chilly start.
Temps Fri night will be closer to normal as airmass continues to
modify.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Should see a westerly return flow on Saturday around high
pressure to the south with seasonably temps near 60. Broad mid
to upper trough will dig down pushing a cold front south
through the area on Sunday. Strong high pressure will build down
behind this front through early next week with plenty of dry and
cold air advecting into the Carolinas. Temps will start cooling
into Sun eve with modified arctic air settling over the area
Sun night through Mon night. Overnight lows will be back down in
the 20s and Mondays high may be closer to 40.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Chilly morning mist occasionally making VSBYs sub-VFR should
burn off near the start of the TAF period so have not accounted
for any restrictions due to this. Then, VFR through the period
with SW winds gusting 20-25 kts in the afternoon/evening. A cold
front could lead to increased wind shear as surface wind gusts
start to calm after sunset but winds stay strong aloft. The
threat should diminish after midnight with VFR expected at this
time.

Extended Outlook...Predominantly VFR through the rest of the
period.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Tonight...Increased SW flow ahead of a cold front will lead
to Small Craft Advisory conditions through the period due to ~30 kt
gusts and seas 5-7 ft. The front will move through late tonight but
improvement will be outside of the period.

Thursday through Sunday...Dry cold front moving farther offshore
Thurs will leave an offshore flow up to 20 kts or so to start
the day with Small Craft Advisory conditions ending. Gradient
weakens with winds diminishing to 10 to 15 kts by Thur aftn and
down to 10 kts or less by Thurs night into Fri in westerly
return flow around high pressure migrating across the South. May
see winds pick up a bit late Fri in continued offshore flow and
again Sat night into Sun as another dry cold front reaches
area. Strong high pressure will build in behind this front with
winds kicking up out of the north late Sun. Should see SCA
thresholds met Sun night into Mon as modified arctic air settles
over the local waters.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...Freezing Fog Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for SCZ056.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EST
     Thursday for AMZ250-252-254-256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...LEW
NEAR TERM...LEW
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...LEW
MARINE...RGZ/LEW