Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
310 FXUS62 KILM 301103 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 603 AM EST Sun Nov 30 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will shift offshore today bringing a brief warmup before a cold front moves through tonight. Unsettled weather is then expected Monday night through Tuesday night as low pressure moves through the area. Dry high pressure will return Wednesday through probably Thursday night before rain chances return as another storm system likely impacts the area. && .UPDATE... Current location of the coastal front is evident via temperature and dewpoint observations, most prominently across New Hanover county with mid 50s at the beaches (both temp and dewpoint) and 36F (T & Td) at the Wilmington airport. The front will shift a bit more inland after sunrise, with slightly cooler air lingering inland. 12z aviation discussion below. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... With surface high pressure moving further off the Northeast coast today, and coastal trough pushing onshore this morning, return flow will dominate today leading to warmer temps. Warming will be felt the most across coastal counties where high temps today are forecasted in the upper 60s with partly cloudy skies. Inland, especially along and west of I-95, low-level inversion of cooler air looks to hang on during the day, maintaining mostly cloudy skies and afternoon highs in the upper 50s - low 60s. Cold front moves across the area tonight. While some PVA aloft will accompany the frontal passage, there is only a 30% chance of showers ahead of and along the front with rather low QPF. Cool, dry air behind the front, with low temps in the upper 30s inland and low 40s near the coast by Monday morning. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... KEY MESSAGES/HIGHLIGHTS: *Hazards: Widespread hazardous weather is not expected (see below for very low severe storm threat east of I-95 Tue) *Rain Chances: None Mon; Moderate to High Mon night; High Tue; Low to Moderate Tue night *Temps: Below normal Mon; Near normal Mon night; Below normal (inland) to above normal (coast) Tue; below normal Tue night *Confidence: High thru Mon; Moderate Mon night thru Tue night Details: High pressure will be building in from the north Mon keeping it dry but cool. However, mid-level energy and a developing coastal trough at the surface will lead to increasing moisture and rain chances. Probably a few tenths of an inch for most locales with several tenths possible in a few spots, especially well inland, mainly in SC. Could even see a few thunderstorms toward daybreak Tue, especially near the coast as a coastal warm front tries to push inland. Steadier and heavier rain is expected Tue as an inland strengthening low pressure likely tracks through the area. However, the exact storm track is still a bit uncertain and this will determine whether any warmer/more unstable air offshore can advect inland prior to the passage of the low. If the coastal warm front can progress inland there will at least be a non-zero (but still very low) risk for a severe storm given the very strong low-level helicity and deep layer shear in place. The main hazards would be damaging winds along with an isolated tornado. Rain will end from SW to NE Tue night as the low moves away to the NE. Storm total rainfall (Mon night thru Tue night) should exceed an inch across the entire area so definitely some much needed rainfall given the ongoing drought conditions over much of the area. Locally heavy rainfall is likely which could lead to minor urban flooding, mainly in low-lying and poor-drainage areas. Although instability should be limited due to cooler onshore winds, there will be plenty of deep layer shear in place so can`t completely rule out a severe storm Tue, especially east of I-95 and inland from the immediate coast. Mostly near to below normal temps expected through the period. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... KEY MESSAGES/HIGHLIGHTS: *Hazards: Widespread hazardous weather is not expected *Rain Chances: None thru Thu; Very Low Thu night; Low to Moderate Fri; Moderate to High Fri night/Sat *Temps: Below normal, except near normal Fri night *Confidence: Moderate to High thru Thu night; Moderate Fri thru Sat Details: Strengthening low pressure inland Tue will be moving NE thru the day although the exact track is a bit uncertain. This will largely determine how much warmer and slightly more unstable air can move inland which will determine if there is any chance at all of a severe storm. At this point chances still appear very low despite the strong deep layer shear due to the fact that warmer air well offshore will likely be cooled somewhat over the chillier shelf waters closer to the coast. Once the low moves by to the north the trailing cold front will move through later Tue/Tue night bringing colder/drier air back to the area which will remain due to high pressure through at least Thu. May see light rain again as early as late Thu night as moisture begins to stream eastward ahead of another storm system with slightly better chances on Fri, although still some decent uncertainty this period. && .AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Low stratus around 800-1200 ft across inland NE SC will persist until 14/15z, and could expand to impact inland SE NC terminals (including KLBT) before lifting to VFR later this morning. Widespread VFR conditions will follow, with partly to mostly cloudy skies with cigs of 4-6 kft. Winds remain fairly light, veering from east-northeast this morning to south- southwesterly by this afternoon. Cold front will move across the area tonight. Light showers will accompany frontal passage, with a chance of MVFR cigs (after 3z). Extended Outlook...A storm moving up from the Gulf will bring lowered flight restrictions Monday night into Tuesday with low clouds possibly down to IFR, and rain leading to MVFR or worse visibility. ILM may also have LLWS on Tuesday in addition to possible gusty thunderstorms. && .MARINE... Through Tonight...Southeasterly winds across the local coastal waters this morning will shift to light southerlies this afternoon as high pressure shifts off the Northeast coast. A cold front will move offshore tonight, with winds turning northerly by dawn Monday and strengthening to 15-20 kts. Scattered light showers may accompany the frontal passage, with very low chance of thunder over the waters. Seas 2-3 ft today through tonight, combination of SE swell and wind chop. Monday through Thursday...High confidence through Mon with lower confidence thereafter through Tue night, then high confidence again Wed thru Thu. High pressure will briefly build from the north Mon before a coastal trough develops Mon night. The trough will likely shift inland late Mon night and/or early Tue as a warm front. A low strengthening low pressure system will then likely traverse this front just inland from the NE SC and SE NC coasts Tue which will be followed by a trailing cold frontal passage late Tue/Tue night. Small Craft Advisory conditions are possible Mon/Mon night and likely Tue into Tue night. A Gale Warning may even be needed Tue morning depending on the strength/track of inland low pressure and how much mixing can occur over the chilly nearshore waters. High pressure will then return Wed through Thu with improving conditions. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ILM UPDATE...VAO NEAR TERM...VAO SHORT TERM...RJB LONG TERM...RJB AVIATION...VAO MARINE...RJB/VAO