Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
378 FXUS62 KILM 140952 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 452 AM EST Fri Nov 14 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Quiet and seasonable weather expected today before warm and breezy conditions develop over the weekend. A couple of fronts will affect the area early to middle of next week with only a limited chance of any rain, mainly on Tuesday. && .UPDATE... Aviation section updated. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Broad 5h trough axis east off the East Coast will lead to deep northwest flow. The flow aloft will move an elongated ridge axis across the area later today, with the ridge axis ending up to the south-southeast this evening and tonight. Flow aloft is not nearly as strong as the past few days and the gradient is quite weak. Winds will struggle to hit 10 mph even during peak heating. The air remains very dry and humidity will once again drop under 30% in the afternoon with potential for inland areas flirting with 20%. Temperatures will end up 3-5 degree cooler than yesterday, mainly due to a cooler start for most areas. As of midnight temperatures across much of the forecast area are 5-10 degrees cooler than the same time last night. Weak warm advection develops late in the day as the surface ridge axis slips offshore. Lows tonight will end up right around normal after several nights of below normal temperatures. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... High pressure will continue to drift southward on Saturday with a strong area of low pressure building over the Great Lakes and northeastern US. The local pressure gradient will increase on Saturday ahead of the cold front. Warm W and SW flow will keep temperatures a few degrees warmer than Friday. Some clouds late in the day will be the lone interruption in a day full of sunshine. Mild overnight with cloud cover and breezy winds just above the decoupled surface. SW winds will also bring warm air advection ahead of the approaching cold front. Lows in the mid and upper 50s. Sunshine returns on Sunday in an ongoing WAA regime. Very warm during the afternoon as highs approach 80 degrees. The cold front arrives late Sunday and Sunday night with little support aloft. Much of this energy remains well north of our area, so the only distinguishing features of the front will be a wind shift and some mid to upper level cloud cover. Expect a breezy and warm weekend ahead. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Dry high pressure will be building across the area on Monday. Weak cold air advection will bring afternoon highs back to normal. A dissipating shortwave will move eastward across the VA mountains late Tuesday. This shortwave will allow for the development of a weak surface low near the southern Appalachians late Tuesday into Tuesday evening. Weak return flow earlier in the day, ahead of the low, and poor moisture aloft should keep the area mostly dry. There will be the potential for a few passing showers, primarily over NC. Zonal flow aloft and southerly flow behind a weak warm front at the surface will bring warmer temperatures on Tuesday. Following the shortwave and transient low, a deeper shortwave will push a dry cold front through the region on Wednesday. High pressure will build across the northeastern and Mid-Atlantic states on Thursday. Ridging aloft and poor cold advection behind the front will only allow for a slightly cooler air mass; temperatures back to near normal for the end of the week. && .AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... VFR. Winds will be light, speeds under 7kt, from the north into the afternoon before gradually backing to southwest by early evening. Extended Outlook... VFR. && .MARINE... Through Tonight... Northerly flow 5-10 kt today will become south-southwest this evening as surface ridge axis slips south and east of the waters. Gradient remains weak with speeds under 10 kt through tonight. Seas 2 ft or less will be a mix of a northerly wind wave and a southeast swell with a weak southwest wind wave developing late. Saturday through Tuesday... Winds increase on Saturday as high pressure drifts southward and an area of low pressure builds into the Great Lakes and northeastern US. SCA conditions are likely to develop late Saturday as the gradient compresses. Westerly winds continue into Sunday as weak warm air advection ahead of the front. Gradient winds of 20-25 knots should create wind waves in excess of 6 feet. Poor mixing will keep gusts around 30 knots. Conditions begin to improve on Sunday night as the cold front moves offshore. Poor cold air advection should prevent the SCA from being extended beyond this point. Light and variable winds announce the arrival of high pressure on Monday with light return flow expected by Tuesday. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ILM UPDATE...III NEAR TERM...III SHORT TERM...21 LONG TERM...21 AVIATION...III MARINE...III/21