Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
509 FXUS62 KILM 032331 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 631 PM EST Wed Dec 3 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Dry high pressure will return through Thursday. A weak backdoor cold front will drop through late Thursday. Waves of low pressure will develop along this lingering front, bringing clouds and periods of rain from Friday into the weekend. Mostly dry conditions may return early next week. && .UPDATE... Updated aviation discussion. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... A fast zonal jet sits over the Carolinas between an upper ridge over Cuba and a series of disturbances zipping across the Great Lakes and New England. A strong subsidence inversion between 3k and 10k feet (875-700 mb) has trapped a thin layer of moisture across mainly South Carolina leading to persistent low clouds and temperatures running well below earlier model projections. Winds within the thin moisture-bearing layer should veer from southwest to northwest overnight, clearing out the clouds with time. Clearing skies and very light winds could trigger the development of ground fog late tonight. The odds of fog appear highest across southeastern North Carolina, however even here objective model blends only indicate a small (<10 percent) potential for visibility less than one mile. Forecast lows range from 29-32 inland to the mid- upper 30s on the beaches. At the surface, broad 1023 mb high pressure centered over Kentucky covers most of the eastern U.S. This high will weaken tonight as a second stronger area of high pressure builds down from the northern Plains states on Friday. Mid and high level moisture should increase across the Carolinas on Thursday in advance of a frontal wave developing along the Gulf Coast. Rain chances should remain less than 10 percent even during the afternoon. Forecast highs are in the mid to upper 50s. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Rain chances rise fairly rapidly Thursday night and low pressure developing on the Gulf Coast starts to fling moisture our way. Rainfall rates should increase Friday into Friday night as the low level baroclinicity associated with the Gulf low shifts northward increasing isentropic upglide into the Carolinas. It`ll be a chilly rain with the wedge to the north firmly entrenched, highs ranging from low 50s coast to mid 40s inland. And although both nights will be cold enough for non-liquid precipitation to sometimes be in question the continued warmth above the low level inversion will preclude anything wintry at this time. Not to mention that with the extensive cloud cover in place our current forecast lows may be a bit too cool. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Forecast confidence takes a hit on Saturday. The front from the short term will still be a good rainmaker for parts of the Southeast but there is some question as to how far north or south. Currently this uncertainty brings the categorical POPs of the short term down but still in the likely category. A forecast refinement maximizing if not confining rain to SC certainly seems possible in the future. Sunday and Monday it seems more likely that the front and its moisture/rain will be south of the area and POPs cut back to slight chance. The final impulse aloft should push through on Monday allowing for some even colder air to move into the Southeast. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Low clouds remain firmly in place across most of the terminals at this hour and should continue for the next several hours. Confidence is low as to how long this deck of clouds will linger as the couple of hi-res guidance tools which actually depict this cloud deck suggest it should eventually evaporate, but how soon ranges from as early as 03Z to as late as 09Z. If this occurs early enough in the night, then MVFR to IFR mist will become an increasing concern. However, if this occurs late in the night, then there may not be enough time to cool amidst calm winds to develop MVFR mist. With that said, the supporting factors for rather swift mist development are the soaked ground from the last storm system and calm winds. But these will not matter if skies remain mostly cloudy through most of the night. This will need to be monitored closely and ideally the 06Z TAF issuance will have a clearer picture of the state of the low cloud deck and its influence on early-morning mist. Otherwise, barring a rapid dissipation of the low clouds before 06Z, expect VFR to prevail with a low chance for MVFR mist early in the morning. Extended Outlook...VFR conditions will continue through Thursday night. The next frontal low pressure system will bring a high likelihood of ceiling and visibility restrictions in rain Friday into Friday night. Adverse aviation weather conditions could continue at times through the weekend and into Monday as a second wave of low pressure develops to our south. && .MARINE... Through Thursday...High pressure will build across the Carolinas tonight with light mainly northwesterly winds expected. Winds should remain light Thursday with directions becoming variable in the afternoon with a weak seabreeze possible. The dominant wave group through tomorrow should be a 10 second ESE swell averaging 1-2 feet in height, topped off by a small wind chop and a small 7 second southerly swell. Combined seas should average 2-3 feet. Thursday night through Monday...Northerly winds to start the period as high pressure wedges in from the north. Over southern waters where the leading edge of this high/frontal boundary will be found may see more of a NE flow. Later in the weekend the high to our north weakens as does the local northerly flow. Wind waves abate slightly but the E to SE swell continues. A series of fairly flat low pressure centers will ride up the offshore boundary locking in NE flow for the remainder of the period. The last one, Sunday night into Monday, appears to be the strongest and could necessitate an advisory. High pressure will build across the Carolinas tonight with light mainly northwesterly winds expected. Winds should remain light Thursday with directions becoming variable in the afternoon with a weak seabreeze possible. The dominant wave group through tomorrow should be a 10 second ESE swell averaging 1-2 feet in height, topped off by a small wind chop and a small 7 second southerly swell. Combined seas should average 2-3 feet. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ILM UPDATE...ABW NEAR TERM...TRA SHORT TERM...MBB LONG TERM...MBB AVIATION...ABW MARINE...TRA/MBB