561
FXUS62 KILM 021042
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
642 AM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Mainly dry conditions are slated as strong Canadian high
pressure ridges in from the north thru the upcoming weekend
into next week. Isolated showers are possible, mainly moving
onshore near the coast late Fri and again this weekend. Small
craft advisory conditions will persist across the local waters
for the remainder of the work week and likely into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Surface high pressure will continue to ridge southward into the
Carolinas resulting in near normal temperatures. The column is
dry above H85, with some rounds of low-level moisture supported
by the NE then Ely flow. Overall, not enough moisture to work
with to support any PoPs over land areas. The center of high
pressure will push southward toward southern New England by
tonight, with the ridge axis persisting across the Carolinas.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Upper ridge axis to become oriented from SE (offshore and east
of the Outer Banks) to NW (eastern Great Lakes), remaining just
north and east of the area this period. At the sfc, ridging will
extend across the Carolinas from the high`s center over the NE
States, that will drop south to just off the coast from the
Mid-Atlantic states. by the end of this period. A tightened sfc
pg will remain across the FA, further tightening south of the
FA. Looking at NE winds thru Sat becoming E Sat night, and
extending up to 5H. Periodic and subtle inverted sfc trofs to
move off the Atlantic and onshore. The deeper moisture (sfc to
700mb) will reside mainly south of the FA but enough moisture
could result in isolated showers and a few hundredths of an
inch, mainly where activity moves onshore across the SC Coast
late Fri ad possibly again late Sat, when winds become more
easterly. Slow warming trend this period, near normal temps Fri,
to slightly above Sat with maxes in the low 80s(above normal).
More clouds slated for Sat than Fri (diurnally driven). With
plenty of dry air above 850mb, not much vertical extent to these
clouds expected, thus will only have low topped showers as the
threat.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Upper ridging pattern to persist into early next week, with sfc
ridging continuing across the Carolinas even as the center of
the sfc high pushes off the Mid-Atlantic Coast and further
offshore. This will continue the sfc ENE-ESE flow across the
FA. In fact, this easterly flow will extend up to atleast the
500mb and possibly the 400mb level. Again, subtle embedded
inverted sfc trofs or weak low level short waves to move along
the southern periphery of the ridging and onshore and inland.
Enough moisture will be avbl for isolated showers each
aftn/evening with the days heating and weak instability
aiding as they track further inland. By the Tue/Wed time-line,
the upper ridging progged to break down allowing atleast the
approach and possibly next CFP. Confidence remains low for this
scenario playing out but did highlight at most 20-30 Pops
thruout the FA for this possibility. Temps this period will
remain above normal, with daytime highs in the 80s and nighttime
lows in the 60s to around 70 along the immediate coast due to
onshore flow across SSTs in the 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR conditions will prevail today, with some moisture in the low
levels leading to SCT clouds, especially along the coast. VFR
conditions will continue through tonight. Mixing could lead to
some gusts to 20-25 kts during the day, especially at KILM,
KCRE, and KMYR during the 14-21z time frame.

Extended Outlook...VFR conditions are expected to prevail. May
have some patchy fog over the weekend with rain chances
returning at the coast.

&&

.MARINE...
Through tonight...High pressure ridging southward into the
Carolinas and lingering swells from Imelda will maintain Small
Craft Advisory conditions through tonight. The center of the
high will slowly migrate southward but the pressure gradient
will only weaken slightly by late tonight. Spectral buoy data
early this morning shows multiple wave components, complicated
by the dominant NEly 6-8 sec waves and the masked 10-11 sec Ely
swells from Imelda. Rough seas will persist today into tonight
given little change to the NEly fetch generated waves with
dampening effects from the old Ely swells.

Friday through Monday...SCA conditions ongoing due to the
tightened sfc pg from the strong high ridging across the
Carolinas. The gradient progged tighter over SC Waters when
compared to the NC waters producing NE winds 15 to 25 kt
becoming more E to ESE Sat night thru Mon. Overall, the hier
speeds across the SC waters especially Sun/Mon. Degrading back
swell from the departed tropical systems will be noticeable Fri
but overall the NE-E wind driven pseudo/fresh swell at 6 to 8
second periods will become the dominate wave and top the power
index. Periodically may observe scattered showers move into the
local waters from offshore and possibly making it top the coast
and onshore.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Other - Rip Currents: There is a high risk of rip currents for
east-facing beaches Thursday. Imelda and remnants of Humberto
swell will intertwine along with the addition of large short
period wind waves resulting from strong NE winds as synoptic
high pressure ridges across the area from the north. The strong
NE wind driven waves will continue through the end of the work
week while the 2 tropical cyclone distinctive swell trains
slowly subside. The end result will be the production of high
surf (breaking wave heights around to 6 ft) through Thursday
for beaches from Cape Fear northward.

Minor coastal flooding during this evening`s high tide cycle
remains likely for the NC Coast (6.00 ft MLLW threshold) but
should remain just below thresholds for the SC Coast (7.00 ft
MLLW threshold). Will let the day shift take another look
before expanding the advisory to any of the beaches. The lower
Cape Fear River, from Wilmington southward, will also observe
minor coastal flooding as levels surpass the 5.50 ft MLLW
threshold this evening.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...High Risk for Rip Currents through this evening for NCZ106-108.
     High Surf Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for NCZ106-108.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 9 PM EDT
     this evening for NCZ107.
SC...High Risk for Rip Currents through this evening for SCZ054-056.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT Saturday night for
     AMZ250-252-254-256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...SRP
SHORT TERM...DCH
LONG TERM...DCH
AVIATION...SRP
MARINE...DCH/SRP
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...SRP/DCH