111
FXUS62 KILM 071025
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
625 AM EDT Tue Oct 7 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain northeast of the area through
Wednesday. A cold front will bring an end to the warm stretch
of weather beginning Thursday. Cool temperatures to follow for
end of the week, with an offshore low increasing rain chances
next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Latest sfc analysis shows 1026 mb high pressure centered well
off to the NE with a weak coastal trough off the Carolina
coast. Similar to yesterday morning, isolated light showers are
developing offshore this morning and expected to spread onshore
over the next several hours in the moist low-level onshore flow.
Not anticipating a widespread or heavy rainfall as mid levels
remain rather dry and a no larger scale forcing mechanism is
discernible. Otherwise, becoming dry everywhere during the
daytime period with partly to mostly sunny skies and temps
slightly above normal for early October...highs in the low/mid
80s with lows tonight in the mid/upr 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A cold front will move across the area Wednesday with pops
remaining consistent hovering around high chance to likely. For
Thursday expect a somewhat raw day when compared to recent days
with strong northeast winds with low overcast skies. Any pops
will more or less be confined to coastal areas and offshore.
Temperatures will go from highs in the lower to middle 80s
Wednesday to just above 70 Thursday. Blustery lows will dip into
the middle to upper 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Still a number of solutions with regards to a coastal or near
coastal storm which could affect the forecast area for several
days. Wind driven rain perhaps heavy remains a possibility
especially with the closer ECMWF solutions while the GFS is more
to the east. Various ensemble members of each suite are
somewhat erratic. The official forecast primarily driven by the
NBM remain more muted moreso with the rain. The winds seem to
certainly be in place. Finally its worth noting that while the
system appears to be more baroclinic in nature...the slow
movement in some cases due west in time could hint at a hybrid
system although impacts should be more a nor`easter in nature.
Cool temperatures throughout the period.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Mainly VFR through the 12Z TAF period. Onshore flow near the
coast will bring isolated showers and the low potential for a
brief restriction this morning, similar to yesterday morning.
Patchy fog is possible late tonight over inland areas, but
clouds and onshore flow will lead to only low to moderate
confidence in fog occurring at the TAF sites.

Extended Outlook...VFR conditions prevail most of the time, with
rain chances returning starting Wednesday afternoon as a cold
front approaches from the west.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Tonight...
Quieter marine conditions than previous days as the 11-13
second swell continues to slowly diminish and E to SE winds are
only ~10 kt. Expect 3-5 ft seas, primarily consisting of ESE 8
second swell.

Wednesday through Saturday...
The main story for the marine community remains the rugged
conditions that will develop from late Wednesday onward as a
storm develops off the coast and strong high pressure centered
well off to the northeast. Strong small craft conditions are all
but a given from Thursday onward with perhaps gale conditions
as well. Significant seas on the order of 4-8/9 feet from
nearshore to outer waters offer no surprises with the persistent
strong winds.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Onshore flow and high astronomical tides due to the recent full
moon will bring minor tidal flooding with each morning high
tide, and possibly the evening high tides as well, across most
of the beaches and along the lower Cape Fear River including
downtown Wilmington, through at least Friday.

Rip currents: High rip current risk is in effect for SC beaches
in our area due to 3-5 ft SE swell continuing to impact our
beaches. May see high rip current risk return Thursday into the
weekend for beaches north of Cape Fear due to strengthening ENE
swell and a developing low pressure system off the coast.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for NCZ106-
     108-110.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until noon EDT today for NCZ107.
SC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for SCZ054-
     056.
     High Risk for Rip Currents through this evening for SCZ054-056.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...MAS
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...MAS
MARINE...MAS/SHK
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MAS