036
FXUS62 KILM 071821
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
121 PM EST Fri Nov 7 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Behind today`s warm front some showers will be possible tonight
with above normal temperatures building in for the weekend.
Shower and storm chances will increase ahead of a strong cold
front Sunday, with the front moving through Sunday night. Much
colder temperatures bring the first freeze of the season Monday
night for a large portion of the eastern Carolinas. Temperatures
should moderate through the latter half of the week with dry
conditions as another cold front moves through.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Clear skies are developing across the region behind a morning warm
front. Mid level water vapor satellite shows a shortwave across the
central US this afternoon which will impact our area tonight. The
trough will move eastward through the overnight hours and push a
degrading cold front through the region. The lifting shortwave and
dry air aloft will force the few showers that exist over the western
Piedmont to gradually dissipate during the early morning hours on
Saturday.

Boundary layer winds will maintain around 10-15 knots with the
passage of this shortwave and surface trough tonight. This should
mostly deter fog across the region, but showers earlier in the day
in the Cape Fear region created a localized increase in boundary
layer moisture. These locations are more likely to see some shallow
fog early Saturday morning. Pockets of lighter winds could allow for
some more locally consistent fog, primarily around drainage areas
and wetlands.

Early cloud cover on Saturday morning will gradually dissipate
during the late morning and early afternoon. Warmer temperatures in
SW flow will see highs soar into the upper 70s with some areas near
80. Boundary layer moisture and moisture aloft is poor, but some air
mass showers may develop regardless. This is more likely to occur
inland where the earlier emergence of sunshine produces better
surface heating. Better boundary layer moisture exists near the
coast and a mix of surface lift could produce a brief shower here as
well.

Across the area, the NBM maintained around a 10% chance of rain for
Saturday afternoon. HREF ensembles tend to agree due to poor
moisture advection, although there could be an argument for higher
PoPs inland where some afternoon convection has flourished in
subsequent model runs. Any lift aloft would not arrive until after
21Z and would support showers farther north into NC. The chance for
a thunderstorm is low with relatively weak lapse rates above the LFC
and a high potential for updraft entrainment.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A shortwave will move through ahead of the major trough axis and
strong surface cold front at the start of the period, shower and
storm chances increasing inland late Saturday night. Any rainfall
overnight looks to be light with better chances Sunday. There is a
marginal risk (1 of 5) of severe weather as we heat up to near 80
Sunday afternoon ahead of the front, the issue will be coverage as
storms fight dry air aloft. The front will move through Sunday
night, pushing offshore by Monday morning. Lows Sunday night will be
~10-15 degrees cooler than Saturday, but overnight winds and clouds
should moderate temperatures a bit. On the current forecast track,
we will go from highs near 80 Sunday to highs in the lower to mid
50s Monday, with clearing skies and NW winds ~15 mph gusting 20-25
mph behind the front.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
We start out in a much colder air mass behind the strong cold front,
with the question of our first freeze Monday night into Tuesday
morning as lows could dip below freezing away from the immediate coast.
Skies will be clear but NW to W winds will be present overnight
to where major radiational cooling might be off the table, but
if winds relax some we could end up cooler and much colder in
our traditionally colder spots. Lows will warm just above
freezing as the air mass moderates some into Tuesday as another
cold front approaches for Wednesday leading to another warmup
for the latter half of the week. For now this second frontal
passage looks to remain dry due to the dry air already in place,
and temperatures behind the front don`t look to be as cold as
the first frontal passage.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Showers near ILM will continue to move off to the north and east
along a weak coastal trough. Once these light showers clear the Cape
Fear area, all terminals will become VFR and should maintain VFR
overnight. A weak cold front approaching from the west could bring
some lower ceilings late tonight and into Saturday morning. I have
maintained VFR during this time as any showers that regress east of
the Piedmont will be rapidly decreasing and should only appear as
remnant cloud cover after sunrise. Showers on Friday afternoon may
contribute to fog chances for the Cape Fear region and ILM.

After morning clouds east of I-95, sunshine will gradually creep
into the region from west to east. Warm temperatures are expected
and this should produce a few air mass showers later in the day.
There is a small chance of a thunderstorm for inland terminals
tomorrow afternoon, but there is some question as to how much dry
air aloft and within the boundary layer inhibits shower development.
VFR expected through 18Z even with a few CIGs due to developing
cumulus. Only chance of lower categories would be in low
probability and short-lived showers and storms.

Extended Outlook... Outside of the potential for fog on Sunday
morning, VFR conditions are expected to continue through Sunday.
Gusty winds will develop on Sunday ahead of a strong cold front. A
few thunderstorms will also be possible during the frontal passage.
VFR returns early next week.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Saturday... Winds continue to veer from southerly to
southwesterly today as high pressure drifts offshore. Winds remain
around 10-15 knots in a relatively weak gradient following a warm
front. A weak cold front will move through the region tonight
bringing a slight increase in wind speeds. Lighter winds are
expected behind the front on Saturday. Warm temperatures near the
coast will contribute to the development of a sea breeze with
enhanced winds and localized gusts up to 20 knots by Saturday
afternoon. Winds continue to increase late Saturday as the gradient
compresses ahead of a cold front.

Saturday Night through Wednesday... Deteriorating marine
conditions expected as a cold front approaches through the
weekend. Small Craft Advisory conditions are possible Sunday
night with the frontal passage and Wednesday ahead of another
front. SW winds will increase from ~10 kts to ~20 kts into
Sunday before turning offshore Sunday night into Saturday behind
the front. Slight improvements for Tuesday as high pressure
builds in before it moves offshore ahead of the front with SW
winds building in again ~20 kts. Waveheights will reach 4-5 ft
Monday and then 4-6 ft Wednesday.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...21
SHORT TERM...LEW
LONG TERM...LEW
AVIATION...21
MARINE...21/LEW