Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
069 FXUS62 KILM 030652 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 152 AM EST Mon Nov 3 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Clouds will clear out this afternoon as low pressure moves away from the coast and high pressure builds eastward across the Carolinas. The high will move overhead Tuesday and offshore Wednesday. A dry cold front should move through the Carolinas early Thursday. Another front could arrive next weekend but rain chances do not appear significant at this time. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... A rather impressive upper level trough will move eastward across the area this morning, then offshore this afternoon. Mid and upper level temperatures (-18C at 500 mb, and -6C at 700 mb, and +6C at 850 mb) are probably the coldest we`ve seen so far this season. Lapse rates may become steep enough to develop some convective showers, especially across the Cape Fear area, as the upper level trough passes overhead late this morning through noon. Clearing is then expected as mid level temps rise abruptly and the airmass dries out from the top down this afternoon. Clouds will hang on longest in Pender County and it`s possible Surf City/Topsail Island won`t see much blue sky until late in the day. Forecast highs range from the lower 60s across Pender County to 64-67 elsewhere with northwest winds gusting up to 20 mph at times. Clear skies are expected tonight with diminishing wind as surface high pressure builds eastward across the Southeast. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Dry high pressure will be migrating eastward over the Carolinas on Tues and then offshore on Wed. The light northerly winds will become more variable and then will increase through late Wed in a gusty southerly return flow. Sunshine will be the rule through the period with a very dry day on Tues with dewpoints dropping down near 40 or below. Although Wed will be dry and sunny, as well, the warmer and moister return flow will help bring temps up several degrees from the 60s in most places on Tues, to the lower 70s on Wed. Overall, a dry period with gusty winds Wed. Better radiational cooling conditions Tues night will allow temps to drop below 40 in traditionally cooler spots up to the low to mid 40s along the coast. Wed night lows will be closer to 10 degrees warmer ahead of a dry cold front dropping through the area near daybreak Thurs. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Winds spin around to the north on Thurs as high pressure builds in behind the passage of a dry cold front dropping south through the area early Thurs. May see a few clouds Thurs morning, but overall, just shifting winds as high pressure skirts by to the north Thurs into Fri. As the high moves off the coast on Fri, the air mass will change with some clouds mixing with the sun and greater potential for shwrs with a return in dewpoints topping 60 in spots ahead of next cold front. This moister environment will lead to warmer overnight lows and temps into the mid 70s into the weekend. A shortwave rounding the base in a broader flatter flow will push a cold front into the Carolinas on Sat and should see an increase in clouds but latest shwr chances look fairly slim. Temps should reach into the 70s each aftn with overnight lows above normal. && .AVIATION /06Z TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Confidence is high for IFR conditions persisting for at least the next 4-6 hours for the coastal airports (KMYR, KCRE, and KILM). Inland there is low to moderate confidence for IFR ceilings developing affecting KFLO and KLBT. Low pressure off the coast is pulling a cold front eastward and offshore. Behind the front, northwesterly low level winds are undercutting humid southwest flow aloft, with multiple cloud layers resulting. Impacts from low ceilings should linger through the morning and cloud bases should gradually lift later today. VFR conditions are expected to develop inland at KFLO and KLBT between 15-18z, with coastal airports following an hour or two later. There is high confidence for VFR conditions late this afternoon into tonight. Extended Outlook...VFR conditions should prevail through the period. Brief IFR/MVFR conditions are possible in early morning ground fog Thursday and Friday. && .MARINE... Through tonight...Low pressure just east of Cape Fear is currently deepening as it moves northeastward and away from the coast. Behind the low, northwest winds have already developed across the coastal waters and should continue throughout today and tonight. Wind speeds currently 10-15 knots could increase to 15-20 knots for a period later today but should diminish again this evening. A second surge of offshore winds will develop late tonight. Wind gusts will exceed 20 knots at times today and tonight, but indications are there should be insufficient time/location of 25 knot gusts to need a Small Craft Advisory. A 10-second easterly swell and local wind chop should combine for wave heights of 3-4 feet inside 20 miles from shore. Tuesday through Friday... High pressure will be migrating across the Carolinas Tues into Wed with northerly flow becoming more variable into late Tues. A shift to a southerly return flow will come Wed as the center of the high reaching the offshore waters off the Carolina coast. This southerly return flow should increase through late Wed as a moisture starved cold front approaches. This front should drop through the waters early Thurs with a shift to the W overnight We and then northerly on Thurs. This will be short lived as the high shifts off the Hatteras coast Thurs night into Fri with onshore to to southerly winds developing. Sub-SCA conditions expected through the period with some gusty winds mainly up to 20 kts late Wed into Wed night. Seas will basically be in the 2 to 4 ft range through the week. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ILM NEAR TERM...TRA SHORT TERM...RGZ LONG TERM...RGZ AVIATION...TRA MARINE...TRA/RGZ