728
FXUS61 KILN 092310
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
710 PM EDT Thu Oct 9 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A high pressure system will shift east across the region through
Friday, leading to dry conditions. A weak low pressure system will
drop down across the Great Lakes this weekend. This could lead to a
few showers across mainly central Ohio.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Surface high pressure will be centered over the northeastern United
States through the near term period with ridging extending back
through the Ohio and Tennessee River Valleys. This will keep a
northeast flow over the region, gradually becoming weak as the high
drifts further away tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT/...
The surface high will move off into the western Atlantic on Friday. Some
weak return flow will develop through the day with temperatures
returning to near normal values. Conditions will be fair with just a
few high cirrus clouds at times.

For Friday night, a closed mid-level low will begin to dig south into
the Great Lakes. We could see an increase in mid-level clouds at this
time... especially north of the Interstate 71 corridor. Latest 12Z
guidance has been a bit drier than previously, so the forecast
remains precipitation- free Friday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A compact/deep closed midlevel low translating SE from the Great
Lakes into the interior NE CONUS by Saturday will bring with it some
increased cloud cover across the area and perhaps a few sprinkles or
very light rain showers to central OH during the afternoon/evening.
However, latest guidance suggests most of the rain associated with
this system will be confined to the NE of the immediate ILN FA, even
through Sunday as the progression of the compact low slows amidst
emerging interaction with another low migrating N through the
Carolinas into the mid-Atlantic region. There are still some details
to be worked out regarding the evolution of these two initially-
distinct systems into early next week, as deep/substantial troughing
should develop along the eastern seaboard, likely keeping the OH Vly
in a quiet NW flow pattern through the first half of next week.

The main impacts locally from the storm near/off the mid-Atlantic
this weekend into early next week will likely be just some increased
cloud cover from time-to-time, which may influence temps slightly
during this time frame. However, minimal impacts are expected
locally from this system.

Highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s are expected this weekend into
early next week, with lows generally in the mid 40s to lower 50s. A
warming trend will evolve into early next week as ridging expands
eastward, with the center of the midlevel high positioned in the
vicinity of the NW Gulf or south-central plains. Either way, the
pattern suggests a warm/dry period expected through midweek, with
temps nudging up a few degrees each day progressively toward
Wednesday and beyond. Temps will trend above normal during this
stretch, with highs reaching into the mid 70s by the end of the long
term period.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR conditions prevail through the taf period. Only exception is at
KLUK as valley fog may result in some vsby reductions. Went slightly
more aggressive on vsby reductions given the observed conditions
last night, combined with the fact that winds will be even lighter
tonight.

Mostly clear skies expected again on Friday, but there will be some
passing cirrus clouds. Winds will shift from the ENE tonight to
southerly by Friday afternoon, but generally remain near or below 5
kts.

OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Friday for OHZ026-034-035-
     042>046-051>056-060>065-070>072.
KY...None.
IN...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Friday for INZ050-058-059-066.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...