Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
210 FXUS61 KILN 101147 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 647 AM EST Wed Dec 10 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A strong system will move through today bringing with it a transition from rain to snow showers, gusty winds, and cooler temperatures. A couple of systems Thursday night into Friday morning and Saturday into Saturday night are both expected to bring accumulating snow to the region. Very cold air will filter in bringing near or below zero wind chill values both Sunday and Monday morning. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/... A large area of precipitation has moved into the region this morning. Expect this precipitation to be primarily rain. Winds will gust 35 to 45 mph today. Continued mention in the HWO and also in the SPS. As colder air works into the region during the afternoon, will start to see temperatures drop and also a transition over to snow showers. && .SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... Snow showers will continue through the overnight and into Thursday morning before tapering off. These snow showers are due to an upper level disturbance and also with lake enhancement. Slick spots will be a concern going into the evening and overnight hours as temperatures and pavement temperatures continue to drop. Already have mention in the HWO and will also add mention to the special weather statement that is in place for the winds today. Low temperatures are expected to drop down into the 20s tonight and then on thursday only expect temperatures to rise into the upper 20s to lower 30s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Confidence continues to increase on the potential for accumulating snowfall Thursday night into Friday with the progression of a shortwave and associated surface low. In general, the highest corridor of QPF does generally remain towards the southern half our CWA with this system, which is supported by numerous ensembles. The GFS is one model however that is shifting the best axis of snowfall down into northern KY, whereas the Euro is more in the Tristate and southern OH region. Either way, this general area appears to be where the biggest impacts might be expected with this particular system. NBM probabilities of snowfall >2" support this given the high likelihood (60-70% chance) of occurrence. SLRs will be closer to 10:1 in these counties near the OH River, but higher SLRs trending towards 15:1 up near I-70 will still support decent snow amounts in spots even with the lighter QPF. Even up near I-70, probabilities of 2"+ of snowfall remain near 60% from the NBM (which is using a 10:1 SLR). Thus, portions of central and west-central OH may still observe appreciable snowfall. Expect some impacts to the Friday morning commute, perhaps lingering through much of Friday. Bulk of the snowfall will shift eastward by Friday afternoon with this system. Colder and drier air will begin to funnel into the Ohio Valley for the weekend, with high confidence in these bitterly cold temperatures. The next feature to monitor for Saturday will be a Clipper system that may bring additional snow accumulations to our CWA. While still a bit early to assess potential snow amounts, models are trending towards a fairly similar storm track as the late Thurs/Friday system, but perhaps shifted slightly farther north. Once again, the high SLRs are a concern for snow amounts to overachieve. Timing with this system generally appears to be late Saturday afternoon into the overnight hours. The other important message for this weekend will be those cold temperatures. Wind chills are expected to approach zero degrees near/north of I-70 Saturday morning. However, wind chills will drop even more for Sunday and Monday mornings, with most of our CWA experiencing wind chills near or below zero degrees. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Rain across the area this morning will give way to snow showers later this afternoon and into tonight. Winds will be gusty through most of the TAF period and then start to diminish towards the end of the TAF period. Cigs will lower and be MVFR to IFR at times. Visibility will be reduced with the precipitation at times as well. OUTLOOK...MVFR to IFR conditions possible Thursday night through Saturday night. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM... LONG TERM... AVIATION...