Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
109 FXUS61 KILN 112300 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 600 PM EST Tue Nov 11 2025 .SYNOPSIS... An unseasonably cold air mass in place across the region today will gradually moderate through the end of the week. Dry conditions will persist through the remainder of the week. Above normal temperatures are expected by the weekend along with a chance for rain. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... A weak shortwave approaching the region this evening is providing widespread mid and upper level clouds today. Southwest flow is resulting in chilly conditions this afternoon even though the snow is no longer falling and temperatures are a few degrees warmer. As temperatures climb above freezing, snow melt will begin, but the cloud cover may resist a complete melting, especially in areas that saw 3 to 5 inches. As the weak system moves overhead tonight, can`t rule out an isolated sprinkle or partially melted snowflake (snow grain) if precipitation reaches the surface. Otherwise, dry conditions are forecast. Winds remain noticeable into the evening and overnight as a low pressure descends into the Great Lakes. Temperature hover in the low to mid 30s into Wednesday morning, as lower temperatures are prevented by the lingering winds. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Feels-like temperatures are in the 20s to start the day as a low pressure passing to the north provides a noticeable westerly wind. Portions of central Ohio may see some low level clouds in the morning, but mostly sunny skies are expected elsewhere. Some upper- level cirrus will be moving in from northwest, limiting the potential for complete sunny skies. A substantial warm-up is anticipated throughout the morning as the area returns to the mid 40s and mid 50s for afternoon highs. While still below normal, these temperatures will be 10 to 15 degrees warmer than the previous two days. The wind gusts between 25 and 30 mph may be the only limiting factor to temperatures feeling a bit warmer. The weak and dry cold front that moves through during the day is hardly noticeable, because the high pressure that arrives behind the front is already modified by warmer air from the south. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... A steady warm-up continues through the end of the work week as the high pressure builds into the Ohio Valley. Temperatures are in mid 50s on Friday, and some lower 60s are possible across the Ohio River locations including northern Kentucky. A weak system results in low chances for rain across the southern half of the area Friday or Friday night, but the signal remains fairly minor at this time. It may disappear entirely as the ensembles get a better handle on the amount of warm air advection lift occurring ahead of a low pressure. The warm-up peaks on Saturday ahead of an approaching cold front. Temperatures will be in the 60s across the area with some locations in the southeast Indiana and northern Kentucky approaching 70 degrees. The cold front moves through Saturday night, with scattered rainfall chances continuing into Sunday morning. The region doesn`t cool down significantly behind the front as much of the cooler air remains tucked away to the north. Another system approaches early next week, suggesting additional rain chances should be expected. The system is rather weak as it moves out of the western US so this will introduce some timing differences depending on the model. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... An upper level disturbance will bring middle and high level VFR ceilings for the start of the TAF period across the sites. Scattered VFR ceilings are then expected the rest of the period after 0600z at most sites. Some broken VFR ceilings could stick around longer at the Columbus sites into Wednesday. Southwesterly winds persist from 10-15 knots through 1200z Wednesday. Winds will then veer to the west through the day on Wednesday. A period of southwesterly LLWS occurs overnight when a LLJ moves overhead. OUTLOOK...MVFR conditions possible Saturday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AR NEAR TERM...McGinnis SHORT TERM...McGinnis LONG TERM...McGinnis AVIATION...