Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
723 FXUS61 KILN 220610 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 110 AM EST Sat Nov 22 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Skies will finally clear today into this evening as high pressure builds in. High pressure will prevail through Monday. Rain will return Monday night ahead of a cold front that will move through midweek. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... Low pressure over western West Virginia will quickly move east before daybreak. Trailing short wave over Illinois will also pass to the east by the start of the day taking remaining light rain with it. Surface ridge will then build in. Clouds will decrease from north northwest to south southeast, although it is possible that this may not occur in parts of northern Kentucky and south central Ohio until this evening. High temperature forecast seems reasonable across the northern half of the area, but may be on the optimistic side across southern areas that will not clear out until later. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... A short wave diving southeast across the upper Great Lakes tonight will bring a surface trough through the area. Expect some mid clouds with this system. There are conflicting signals whether there could also be a period of lower clouds in the wake of the trough late tonight into Sunday morning. But even most pessimistic guidance in this regard clear out the region for Sunday afternoon as high pressure builds in. Temperatures will be a bit above normal. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... High pressure across the region to start the period will move off to the east on Monday. Fairly good agreement within the model suite in weakening a short wave as it lifts from the central Plains into the Great Lakes Monday night and Tuesday. This will result in rain spreading into the region late Monday night and passing off to the east on Tuesday. Noticeable differences in guidance concerning robust energy emerging from the northern Rockies and northern Plains. ECMWF ensemble has very good agreement in its members that a faster and more open wave will pivot across the Great Lakes on Tuesday night. Much of the Canadian ensemble closes off the system and thus is a bit slower to take this system east. About half of the GFS members align with the Canadian consensus while a third of the GFS ensemble creates a much stronger closed low and is even slower. Surface low associated with this system will pass well north of the region, but a trailing cold front will move through the area. So the timing of the mid level system affects when frontal passage will occur in our region. That varies from Tuesday evening on the fast end and Wednesday afternoon on the slow side. Between the rain shield departing in the early part of Tuesday and the frontal passage, there will still be some areas of rain. Colder and drier airmass will move in behind the front with temperatures nearly 10 degrees below normal for most of the area Thursday and Friday. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... IFR/LIFR ceilings are starting to break from KDAY to KCMH/KLCK, and even though there may be periods with MVFR ceilings, opted to keep a prevailing lower ceiling until that deck final clears at these sites. A VFR ceiling will linger for several hours before scattering out. Elsewhere, it will take longer for ceilings to improve, lifting to MVFR before clearing. Visibility will continue to trend upward during the early part of the period. Once lower ceilings break, it will be VFR for the remainder of the TAF forecast. OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings possible late tonight into Sunday morning. MVFR/IFR ceilings and visibilities are likely again late Monday night into Tuesday, with MVFR ceilings possible into Wednesday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM... LONG TERM... AVIATION...