Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
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543 FXUS61 KILN 111452 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 1052 AM EDT Sat May 11 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A surface trough will pass across the region today. High pressure will build in behind this system and persist into Monday. Low pressure will then approach from the west. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Shower activity will mostly push east out of the region by early afternoon as a surface trough moves through. A low chance of a pop up shower or storm could occur in the far northeast this afternoon in the diurnal instability in the post trough environment. Otherwise, skies will become partly cloudy to mostly sunny. Winds will pick up with some gusts to around 30 mph. Highs will be close to persistence in the lower 60s to lower 70s. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... High pressure will develop into the area through the period. Winds will diminish in the early evening, but some clouds could linger before finally clearing out after midnight. Thereafter, atmosphere will be quite dry. Maybe there could be some late day diurnal cumulus. It will be a cool night with lows in the mid to upper 40s. But highs will be trending warmer and reaching the lower to mid 70s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... After a dry start Sunday night and Monday morning under high pressure, clouds will increase and a few showers and thunderstorms may move in Monday afternoon ahead of low pressure advancing from the west. As the low tracks to Southern Indiana on Tuesday, showers and thunderstorms will become likely to categorical. Severe storms appear unlikely due to a weak wind fields and modest instability. The system is forecast to move to the East Coast on Wednesday, providing diminishing chances for showers and storms. For Thursday and Friday, weak disturbances interacting with an unstable airmass may trigger a few more showers and storms. Temperatures are forecast to be normal to above normal through the period. Highs start in the mid 70s to low 80s Monday under warm advection, before clouds, precip and cold advection cause readings to retreat to the upper 60s to mid 70s Tuesday and Wednesday. Insolation and warm advection will allow a return to the mid and upper 70s on Thursday and Friday. && .AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Showers will track across the TAF sites during the early part of the period. Expect conditions to remain VFR except perhaps at the Columbus terminals where some temporary MVFR ceilings and visibilities are not out of the question. Surface trough will move through the sites between 14Z and 17Z. Clouds will scatter. Winds will veer to the west northwest and strengthen. Some gusts up to 25 kt will occur through the rest of the daytime period. Winds, both sustained and gusts, will decrease towards 00Z. Few to scattered clouds may persist through the night. OUTLOOK...MVFR ceiling and visibilities as well as thunderstorms possible Monday night through Wednesday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Hickman NEAR TERM...Hickman SHORT TERM... LONG TERM...Coniglio AVIATION...