Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
709 FXUS61 KILN 170631 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 231 AM EDT Fri Oct 17 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Continued dry weather with increasing temperatures for today. A cold front will move through the area over the weekend bringing showers and possibly some thunderstorms beginning Saturday afternoon, as well as gusty winds on Sunday. A brief period of high pressure will bring dry conditions for Monday, with another chance for precipitation arriving Tuesday with the approach of the next frontal system. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... Amplified upper/mid level pattern will allow for deep ridging centered over the southern Ohio/TN valleys today, with return southerly flow setting up by this afternoon. The result will be slightly higher daytime highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Some mid/high clouds will filter in ahead of the advancing trough/cut off low from lower Manitoba slowly working it`s way into the upper plains. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... Upper level ridge and surface high pressure slowly departs overnight, with warmer overnight lows under increasing southerly flow and high clouds. Lows in the mid 40s east closer to the departing high pressure, with mid 50s west due to increasing southerly flow. Saturday will be marked by the amplifying upper trough and associated shortwave over the plains, with the mid Ohio Valley under strong WAA ahead of the sharpening trough and surface low pressure lifting along the frontal boundary from the southern plains. This strong WAA/southerly flow will bring daytime highs in the low to mid 80s, approaching record high temperatures. Some uncertainty for timing of advancing showers and storms by late Saturday, with the current blended solution erring toward the faster solutions bringing precip generally west of the I-75 corridor between 18-00z, but could be slower and be closer to the 00z-03z timeframe for shower/storm onset. Most of the region will not see showers/storms until after 00-06z. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... As mid level energy approaches the region, 850mb winds increase to 40-45kts by 06z and near 50-55kts by 12z. Surface CAPE will increase to the 200-400 J/kg range, bringing a marginal thunderstorms wind threat beginning mainly the latter part of Saturday night into early Sunday ahead of the resulting front sweeping through the area on Sunday. Still expecting the more likely winds mixing down to the surface to be in the post frontal environment, in which the blended solution has muted, so went with an NBM/90th percentile NBM wind gusts for Sunday, in the 35-40mph range closer to the northeastward moving low over especially central Ohio. Will continue to monitor for potential for stronger winds approaching wind advisory criteria. Showers and thunderstorms will continue to push through areas along/east of the I-71 corridor during the day on Sunday ahead of the advancing front. Temperatures will fall into the mid 50s by late afternoon in the west with the strong surface FROPA. High pressure will briefly build into the region on Monday, with another faster moving but more muted shortwave to drop through the lower Great Lakes on Tuesday, bringing another round of showers and potential storms. Behind this shortwave/trough passage, northwest flow settles into the region bringing below normal temperatures mid/late week. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... VFR conditions expected through the period with the exception of KLUK visibility dropping to MVFR and some IFR possible in the 09-11z timeframe overnight. Mid/Upper level clouds increase, with slightly increasing winds ahead of a deepening mid level trough and developing frontal system to approach the region toward the end of the TAF period. OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible after 00z Sunday, with wind gusts at or above 30 kt possible after 12z Sunday. MVFR ceilings possible Sunday into Sunday night. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for OHZ046-056-065-074. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JDR NEAR TERM...JDR SHORT TERM...JDR LONG TERM...JDR AVIATION...JDR