001
FXUS63 KILX 020939
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
339 AM CST Sun Nov 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dense fog advisory issued from McLean, Logan and Sangamon
  counties westward through 9 am cst. HREF has a 40-70% chance for
  visibilities less than 1/4 mile from I-55 west from 11-14Z.
  With temperatures at or below freezing, dense fog that does
  occur could result in slick spots on elevated surfaces (such as
  bridges).

- The next chance for widespread rainfall is Thursday night into
  Friday as a cold front moves through the region. However, the
  probability of over a half inch of rain is just 10-20% (higher
  chances in eastern IL).

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 330 AM CST Sun Nov 2 2025

We issued a dense fog advisory from McLean, Logan and Sangamon
counties westward through 15Z/9 am cst. Patchy fog was developing
over central and southeast IL during past few hours as clouds
were clearing with light to calm winds prevailed as temps cooled
quickly toward dewpoints. The fog has become more widespread and
denser over parts of the IL river valley. Peru, Galesburg and
Jacksonville airports vsbys are restricted to 1/4 mile. Also
seeing some dense fog in southeast IL especially along highway 50
with vsbys at 1/4 mile at Flora and 1/2 mile at Lawrenceville,
Olney and Mt Carmel airports. Temps had dropped below freezing
over much of central IL with temps of 27-32degF at 3 am, while mid
30s in southeast IL from I-70 south. Latest CAMs show dense fog
becoming more common from I-55 west next few hours and lifting
during mid morning. Also a small area of dense fog noted in far
southeast IL near Wabash river valley and lifting during mid
morning. With temps below freezing over central IL, dense freezing
fog possible from I-55 west and could cause slick spots on
elevated surfaces like bridges.

A weak frontal boundary moving over eastern KY/TN and AL to slowly
push further away from IL today, while 1024-1026 mb high pressure
ridge from east Texas into central IL and eastward into the mid
Atlantic States to control out weather through tonight with fair
weather. A fair amount of sunshine expected today once fog lifts
and SW winds around 10 mph or less (lighter winds in southeast IL
closer to high pressure ridge). Highs today in the low to mid 50s,
with upper 70s near the Wabash River/Indiana border. Lows
overnight in the mid to upper 30s, coolest in eastern IL where
lower 30s possible near the Indiana border.

A 992 mb low pressure over south central Saskatchewan had a cold
front extending sw over central MT early this morning. The front
to weaken as it pushes se through central IL during Monday and
be accompanied by a wind shift to the west to NW (gusting near 20
kts from I-74 northeast) marking its passage. Lift is weak and
little moisture to work with so front comes through dry and not
much clouds with it either (more clouds in northern/NE IL
overnight into Monday morning). Milder highs Monday in the lower
60s.

Low pressure ejecting from the Northern Rockies into the Northern
High Plains Tue to lift a warm front back ne over central IL with
breezy south winds developing by Tue afternoon. Will see some
increase mid/high cloud cover during overnight Monday night into
Tue morning, then decreasing clouds from the west during Tue
afternoon. Milder highs in the mid to upper 60s Tue with west
central IL near 70F from Havana and Springfield west.

The milder dry late fall wx pattern continue Wed and Thu over CWA
with partly to mostly sunny skies. Highs Wed in the mid to upper
60s in central IL and near 70F in southeast IL. Highs in the low
to mid 60s Thu, mildest over southern and sw CWA.

A stronger storm system still well off the Pacific Northwest Coast
is progged by models to move a mid/upper level trof and cold front
eastward across the Midwest during Thu night and Friday. This to
bring next best chance of showers (isolated thunderstorms
possible too especially eastern IL overnight Thu night into
Friday). NBM has only a 10-20% chance of over a half inch of
rainfall Thu night/Friday with the higher percentages in eastern
IL. NBM average (50%) is a tenth to quarter inch of rain over
most of CWA. More of a Pacific airmass initially with passage of
late work week system, so temps do not drop off too much late this
week. Highs Friday in the mid to upper 60s (after lows Thu night
in the upper 40s/lower 50s) and low to mid 60s Saturday. A
deepening mid/upper level trof over the Midwest and Eastern US
by next Sat night/Sunday to likely bring colder temperatures and
possible chances of more showers.

07

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1215 AM CDT Sun Nov 2 2025

A ridge of high pressure will drift across central Illinois
overnight then settle along the Ohio River Valley Sunday. Light
and variable winds overnight will set up out of the south-
southwest behind the ridge axis Sunday. Meanwhile, fog
development is likely, possibly dense, along and west of the I-55
corridor late tonight into Sunday morning with confidence
decreasing in any impacts to vsby further east. Once fog clears by
mid to late morning, VFR conditions are expected the remainder of
the day Sunday.

Deubelbeiss

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for ILZ027>031-
036>038-040>042-047>051.

&&

$$