


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana
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805 FXUS63 KIWX 071814 AFDIWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 214 PM EDT Tue Oct 7 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers ending prior to sunset. - Areas of frost are likely Wednesday night and Thursday night. - Warm conditions return by the end of the week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 211 PM EDT Tue Oct 7 2025 A cold front continues to work its way slowly through the area this afternoon. Temperatures have already fallen into the mid-50s near the lake, while still holding strong in the 70s in northwest Ohio. The thunder chance has diminished notably now that this morning`s area of rain has become outflow dominant. Ahead of the outflow boundary, instability is negligible. Overall, becoming cooler for the remainder of the day with rain arriving to drought- stricken northwest Ohio and rain ending for northwest Indiana. High pressure settles in tonight allowing for clearing skies and decreasing wind. Lows tonight will be within a few degrees of normal (normal being 45-46), save for the usual cold spot of south-central MI which may see lows in the upper-30s. Colder still Wednesday night and Thursday night with high pressure centered over Michigan and 850- mb temperatures tumbling to 3C to 6C. Areas of frost are anticipated with widespread lows in the mid 30s. A lake shadow will keep temperatures elevated in portions of La Porte and Berrien Counties. A quick look at climatology reveals mid-30 lows are somewhat common for these dates. Upper-level ridging marks the return of additional warmth, though not quite to the magnitude we`ve recently experienced. Highs in the 60s midweek will be just shy of normal and give way to a gradual warm up by this weekend. The one hiccup continues to be a compact low sweeping through Michigan this weekend which may knock down temperatures briefly (and maybe even some showers to southern MI). A highly amplified upper-air pattern next week yields the possibility for a strong cold front to pass through the Midwest by late next week, though strong eastern US ridging could win out, prolonging our drought conditions. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1221 PM EDT Tue Oct 7 2025 A trend toward primarily MVFR conditions expected this afternoon with rain shower activity clearing KSBN by or shortly after TAF issuance, and KFWA by late this afternoon. Northerly winds may gust 15-20 knots at times this afternoon post-frontal, with VFR/dry conditions expected tonight into Wednesday. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...None. OH...None. MI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Wednesday for LMZ043-046. && $$ DISCUSSION...Brown AVIATION...Steinwedel