461
FXUS63 KIWX 191745
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
1245 PM EST Wed Nov 19 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mainly cloudy through the remainder of the week with highs in the
  mid 40s today, and the low-mid 50s for Thursday and Friday.

- There is a chance (20-60%) for light rain Thursday night
  through early Saturday, best chances south of US 24.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 223 AM EST Wed Nov 19 2025

A surface anticyclone will shift east through the
central/eastern Great Lakes today into tonight under steady
height rises and confluence aloft. Light, dry easterly flow will
persist on the southern fringes of this sfc high, though
lingering moisture locked within a subsidence inversion likely
keeps low clouds around for most.

High pressure drifts east into the Northeast US and an upper
level trough propagates east clipping the Upper Midwest and
northern Great Lakes Thursday into Thursday night. This will
allow low level flow trajectories to veer southwesterly with
warmer temperatures anticipated. How warm on Thursday will be
dependent on how pesky lingering low clouds are, which is a
point on contention in the models with quite the spread noted
(FWA low 40s to near 60). Opted to hold close to the NBM with
enough low cloud scouring to get highs into the low-mid 50s.

A frontal boundary forced south by the aforementioned upper
trough then looks to become active later Thursday night through
early Saturday as a southern stream wave ejects into the central
Plains, eventually getting squashed east through the OH Valley by
leftover confluent west-northwest flow aloft. The GFS/GEFS
remains the outlier in a farther north, wetter, fgen solution
into at least the southern half of the IWX CWA, with the bulk of
the remaining guidance mainly dry and suppressed south of the
area. Opted to hold close to NBM low-mid chance PoPs (highest
south) given the lingering differences. Quiet/dry then behind
this system for much of the weekend into early next week with
temps averaging above normal.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1245 PM EST Wed Nov 19 2025

Under light easterly sfc flow, expansive llvl clouds remain
entrenched due to a persistent inversion. AM not optimistic with
much in the way of improvement with cigs as the aforementioned
inversion will continue through the fcst period.A brief period
of higher end MVFR or VFR may occur, bit am not inclined to
mention as timing is difficult to try to narrow down at this
time.Expect cigs at KFWA to lower blo 1k ft toward sunrise
Thursday.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Steinwedel
AVIATION...Frazier