185
FXUS63 KIWX 241446
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
946 AM EST Mon Nov 24 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mild today and Tuesday with highs in the 50s.

- Rain developing tonight then ending over most areas Tuesday
  afternoon.

- Turning much colder with highs only in the 30s Thanksgiving
  Day through Saturday.

- Rain developing again Wednesday then changing to snow. Snow
  ending Thursday night. Some accumulations likely near and
  north of the toll road.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 946 AM EST Mon Nov 24 2025

Several changes made to the previous forecast into Tuesday
morning to reflect current obs/sat data in the near term and
model trends tonight into Tue regarding precip chances.

Mid/high clouds have overspread much of the area this morning.
Any breaks in the clouds will be brief as mid level moisture
continues to stream in. As a result, cloud cover has been nudged
up into the afternoon with cloudy skies overnight into Tuesday.

With regards to precipitation, a lot of dry air will be in place
as weak isentropic lift commences this evening with the
strongest lift and moisture remaining SW of the area. Hi res
models showing maybe some light showers/sprinkles prior to 6Z,
but nothing to warrant the higher inherited pops. Things do
begin to change overnight as isentropic lift does increase
somewhat and lower CPDs extend to the sfc to bring at least a
period of more widespread light rain with peaks in coverage
towards 12Z. Although soundings are saturated, worried that the
best lift may remain somewhat elevated and reduce the amount of
rainfall to more of a drizzle/light rain setup. In addition, as
it already apparent upstream, fog could become an issue
overnight into Tue morning given the abundant moisture. Have
made changes to pops to slow down the arrival to after 6Z and
introduced patchy fog 6Z to 15Z for now. Will examine additional
model guidance for the afternoon package for further changes.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 412 AM EST Mon Nov 24 2025

High pressure continued over the entire forecast area early this
morning. The high pressure area had brought clear skies, calm
winds and chilly overnight temperatures. Readings as of 3 AM EDT
were mostly in the upper 20s as the dry ground and the lower
atmosphere were really radiating out. These conditions will
bring large diurnal spreads again today. Highs are expected to
rise around 25 degrees from the overnight lows in the 20s. This
range is around 10 degrees above the normal range of around 15.

A pair of upper level disturbances will bring an extended wet
period for much of this upcoming week. The first system will
bring light rain tonight and early Tuesday. Rainfall amounts
will generally be less than four tenths of an inch with many
areas under at quarter of an inch. Mild temperatures will
prevent snow. The second upper level system will bring another
round of precipitation with rain changing to snow Wednesday.
This system will combine with a strong shortwave topping the
Pacific ridge and then eject northwest of the forecast area.
Rain and wet snow will result this weekend. Travel impacts
initially appear limited. The upper level ridge will start to
build back across the Midwest in response to upstream
teleconnections. Milder temperatures should start to return
Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 629 AM EST Mon Nov 24 2025

VFR conditions continue through a majority of this TAF period.
A disturbance moving into the region will bring increasing
clouds/lowering cigs through the forecast period with chances
for light rain/showers increasing after about 06z for KSBN and
08z for KFWA. MVFR vsbys in light rain expected after 08z Tue
for KSBN and 10z Tue for KFWA. Southerly winds 10 knots or less
through the forecast period.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...Gale Watch from late Tuesday night through Thursday evening
     for LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Fisher
DISCUSSION...Skipper
AVIATION...Andersen