382
FXUS63 KIWX 090920
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
420 AM EST Tue Dec 9 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain will change to snow today from northwest to southeast.

- Snowfall amounts mainly <1" through Wednesday.

- Turning much colder this weekend with light snow at times.
  Wind chills mainly zero to -15. Heavy snow is not expected.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 419 AM EST Tue Dec 9 2025

Challenges this forecast package include the onset and timing
of precipitation, types of precipitation including the chance
for brief freezing rain producing light icing, and snowfall
amounts starting this afternoon after the rain or mixed
precipitation changes to all snow. Light snow was spreading into
northwest Indiana, but was still west of South Bend as of 345
AM EDT. BUFKIT soundings were showing a fairly dry subcloud
layer southwest of Warsaw. Given radar and surface observations,
trends, and the latest model data light snow is expected to
accumulate less than 1 inch mainly north of the toll road today.

The soundings also showed mid levels cooling well before the
next round of precipitation beginning later tonight. The cold
front should move across the area early Wednesday with a fairly
rapid changeover from rain to snow. A brief period of freezing
rain is possible. Most of the forecast area should change over
to snow by late morning with nearly all areas becoming just snow
by mid afternoon Wednesday. Given the long cold pattern since
late November and given the cold pavement temperatures, it is
likely there will be some slippery spots on rural roads where
temperatures have not been warm enough long enough to melt the
snow.

Thursday is on the threshold of another long and cold period
with highs often below 20 degrees and lows in the single digits.
Wind chills will often be from -15 to +5 degrees.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1246 AM EST Tue Dec 9 2025

VFR/MVFR conditions to start the period, deteriorating to IFR
towards the latter half. A trough moves through the terminals
today, bringing potential for light snow and drops to MVFR
ceilings/visibilities. The best potential for snow will be at
KSBN after 9z, with KFWA possibly seeing flakes after 11z (it
could stay further north, so used Prob30 vs tempo). Behind this
wave another approaches, bringing rain/snow potential after 00z.
Ceilings less than 2,000 feet linger at KSBN from 15z onward,
particularly once the next system arrives after 00z (low end
IFR). Otherwise, gusty southwest winds through the day with
periods of marginal LLWS at both sites as we attempt to decouple
overnight.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for LMZ043-
     046.
     Gale Watch from this evening through Wednesday evening for
     LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Skipper
AVIATION...MCD