916
FXUS64 KJAN 301008
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
408 AM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

  - Minor impacts from light freezing rain will be possible over
    far northwest portions of the area Monday.

  - Widespread rain is expected Monday through Monday night
    followed by cold and dry conditions.

  - It will remain colder than normal through the remainder of
    the week with additional rain events Thursday and Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 345 AM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

The forecast for the next seven days can be best described as
colder and wetter than normal. In the big picture, a broad and
cold upper longwave trough will encompass much of the nation, and
this will tend to keep the storm track suppressed to the south
while allowing multiple intrusions of cold polar air into the
Deep South region. In terms of impacts to the forecast area, these
mostly focus on the potential for heavier rain amounts, and even
some light ice accumulation over far northwest portions of the
area given the influx of colder air.

Today: A cold front is now making it`s way into northwest portions
of the area, and it will continue to move southeast across the
entire area as we go through today, accompanied by a swath of
light to moderate rainfall. The front will be followed by
significantly colder temperatures and blustery conditions.

Tonight through Monday night: Most of the forecast concerns occur
during this period in association with the next more significant
shortwave trough expected to move across the Southern Plains
Monday and into our region Monday night. As the trough approaches,
moist isentropic ascent should quickly develop late tonight into
Monday morning resulting in the development of considerable light
rain showers. Over far northwest portions of the forecast area,
surface temperatures will be near to just below freezing as precip
chances begin early Monday morning, and we will be messaging for
the potential of limited ice impacts in this area, including the
potential for a few slick spots on bridges/overpasses given that
it will be quite cold through the preceding night. Otherwise, all
rain is expected later Monday through Monday night over the entire
area with a few locations potentially receiving up to an inch of
rainfall. A brief change-over back to light wintry precip can`t be
ruled out over northwest portions of the area late Monday night in
a strong cold advection pattern as the system departs, but no
impacts are expected if this does occur.

Tuesday through Wednesday night look drier and quite cold,
especially Tuesday when blustery north-northwest wind behind the
departing system will make for very uncomfortable conditions in
strong cold advection. Temperatures should struggle to rise much
above 40 F Tuesday afternoon, and some locations may struggle to
even reach 40 F along the Hwy 82 corridor. Clearing skies and
diminishing wind under high pressure Tuesday night should allow
temperatures to fall well into the 20s for much of the area, then
modification of the airmass will allow temperatures to rebound a
good bit by Wednesday afternoon.

Thursday through Saturday: The next significant shortwave trough
will most likely approach Thursday resulting in the development of
another frontal wave with increased warm advection over the
forecast area. Forecast confidence has increased some regarding
the potential for a couple of rounds of heavy rainfall in the
Thu-Fri time frame. The storm system track should be suppressed
to near the coast, and therefore any severe weather potential
should be mostly south of the forecast area in the continued
chilly airmass. Drier conditions are mostly likely to return
Saturday, but don`t be surprised if the next system affects the
area shortly after that. /EC/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1130 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

MVFR/IFR ceilings will move across the area tonight along with
light rain. The front as of 11:30PM is located in southeast
Arkansas. Rain and low stratus will diminish in the northwest in
its wake, but will linger in the southeastern half of the area.
Winds will gust out of the north in its wake around 17kts./SAS/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       39  51  34  48 /  30  80 100  20
Meridian      37  54  37  49 /  30  60 100  30
Vicksburg     37  47  33  47 /  20  80  90  10
Hattiesburg   43  59  44  54 /  30  60  90  30
Natchez       39  52  34  49 /  40  80  90  10
Greenville    32  38  31  42 /  10  70  80  10
Greenwood     33  44  32  44 /  10  70  90  10

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.

&&

$$

EC/SAS/