683
FXUS64 KJAN 101805
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1205 PM CST Mon Nov 10 2025

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

  - A widespread freeze is expected across the forecast area
    tonight, with temperatures as much as 5 to 10 degrees below
    freezing.

  - The next chance for rain in the region will be this weekend
    into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1202 PM CST Mon Nov 10 2025

Through Tonight:

Starting off our new work week with cold weather passing through the
region, it can only go up after tomorrow morning. The first
widespread freeze of the season will be a doozy. As the core of a
1035+ mb surface high from Canada shifts from the Southern High
Plains today to the central Gulf Coast tonight, winds will settle
down and the chill will settle in. MSLP values with this high are
near the max in this region for mid-November. Most locations are
expected to see low temperatures tomorrow morning around 28 degrees
or colder - good enough for an agricultural "killing freeze". Any
unprotected sensitive plants could be damaged by the cold air.
Typically colder spots like the hilly northeast Mississippi or could
see lows in the lower 20s. A few records could be broken, but we`ll
certainly be close. A Freeze Warning remains in place for tonight,
and a "Significant" threat messaging for local hazardous weather
outlook graphics. With today`s dry weather and breezy northwesterly
winds, a "Limited" threat for fire weather conditions remains in
place as well.

Tomorrow into the weekend:

The deep upper-level trough and closed low pressure centered over
the Midwest today will quickly pivot eastward and be followed by a
slower building upper-level ridge over much of the country through
late week. Surface high pressure will remain in the Gulf Coast
region, which should aid in continued dry conditions and a trend
toward slightly warmer than normal weather through the back half of
the week. Before better moisture recovery begins, tomorrow will also
be dry and breezy for most of the area, so a "Limited" fire danger
graphic will remain in place through the day tomorrow. Humidity
should creep high enough by Wednesday and beyond to limit any
concerns.

Forecast guidance remains somewhat uncertain with timing of the next
low pressure system arriving in our region, but the trend in latest
suite of guidance is for a slower closed or cut off low moving from
the Desert Southwest along the Interstate 40 corridor Saturday into
early next week. National Blend of Models retained widespread
"Chance" POPs for Saturday night, but this seemed too aggressive for
the trends in guidance, so POPs were lowered more into the "Slight
Chance" range for that time frame. Deferring to blend for the rest
of the weekend is still okay, but it`s possible showers or
thunderstorms with the next system may not even move into our area
until Sunday night. Will continue to update as model data comes into
better agreement, but a slower overall system would allow for
potential severe thunderstorms to develop in the region. Stay tuned
for updated to impacts and timing as the weekend system draws
closer. /NF/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1202 PM CST Mon Nov 10 2025

VFR flight conditions will prevail through the period. Northerly
winds around 15 kts with gusts up to 25 kts will be possible.
Winds will decrease to 5 kts or less after 00-02Z Tuesday. Winds
are expected to shift to the south/southwest early Tuesday
morning. /SW/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       26  59  39  74 /   0   0   0   0
Meridian      24  57  35  73 /   0   0   0   0
Vicksburg     28  60  42  75 /   0   0   0   0
Hattiesburg   27  60  36  76 /   0   0   0   0
Natchez       28  61  42  76 /   0   0   0   0
Greenville    28  58  44  72 /   0   0   0   0
Greenwood     25  58  42  72 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...Freeze Warning from 9 PM this evening to 8 AM CST Tuesday for
     MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074.

LA...Freeze Warning from 9 PM this evening to 8 AM CST Tuesday for
     LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026.

AR...Freeze Warning from 9 PM this evening to 8 AM CST Tuesday for
     ARZ074-075.

&&

$$

NF/SW