216
FXUS64 KJAN 031804
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1204 PM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

  - Wet weather and cool temperatures will settle into the
    forecast area through Saturday.

  - Moderate to heavy rainfall is possible at times across
    portions of southern and southeastern Mississippi through
    Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1202 PM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

Our persistent low stratus deck has finally thinned and mixed out
across most of the forecast area. Temperatures will continue to warm
into the 40s and 50s this afternoon, then drop into the 30s for most
places overnight. While low-level moisture this afternoon has mixed
out, the next surge of moisture is not far off.

A strengthening jet stream oriented from West Texas to New England
will keep broad synoptic scale lift in place over the Gulf Coast and
Deep South regions through the end of this week. Pattern will favor
steady rainfall in rounds as upper-level disturbances moving through
the flow aloft enhance mid-level frontogenesis. PWAT values over the
Northern Gulf are expected to be around 1.5+ inches. Values in this
range are above the 90th percentile for our forecast area, so
moisture transport will be efficient and some heavy rain is
possible. The plume will mostly be south of our area but will extend
across mainly the Pine Belt area of southeast Mississippi.
Expectation is that between tonight and the daytime Saturday,
average rainfall amounts will be about 1 to 2.5 inches for areas
south of Interstate 20, and about 1/4 inch to 1 inch for areas north
of Interstate 20. A reasonable upper range for rainfall for areas
along and south of the US Highway 84 corridor in southern
Mississippi would be localized amounts up to around 4 inches.

This pattern into the weekend will keep temps fairly stable between
mostly 40s and 50s. Then Sunday into next week, the pattern will
shift. The upper-level trough will begin to pivot eastward, and
drier northwesterly flow aloft will set up across the country. A
reinforcing cold front and surface high pressure will push through
the eastern CONUS through the early week. Monday night appears to be
our coolest of the next 7 days, with the potential for temperatures
to drop below freezing (down to the mid 20s or so) with that air
mass. /NF/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1123 AM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

Stratus is finally eroding across the region this morning, as
high clouds are beginning to stream northeast into the region.
This is allowing for a return to VFR flight categories at most
area TAF sites. Unfortunately, this won`t last long as stratus yet
again will encompass the area overnight into Thursday as the next
weather system moves into the region. This will again result in
degrading flight categories to MVFR/IFR status as rain moves back
into the area by day break Thursday. Winds today will be light
between 3-5 knots with an easterly component, but they`ll become
more northerly between 5-10 knots early Thursday morning as a
strengthening area of surface low pressure begins lifting
northeast from the western Gulf of America toward the central gulf
coast. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       37  50  42  50 /  60  90  90  50
Meridian      34  49  39  51 /  30  90 100  70
Vicksburg     39  49  40  50 /  80 100  90  40
Hattiesburg   40  53  45  56 /  60 100 100  80
Natchez       41  51  41  50 /  90 100  90  50
Greenville    38  46  37  46 /  60  90  80  20
Greenwood     35  48  39  49 /  50  80  90  30

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

06/19