803
FXUS64 KJAN 212355 AAA
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
555 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

...New MESOSCALE UPDATE, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

  - A storm system with locally heavy rain and some stronger
    thunderstorms remains a concern late Monday into Tuesday.

&&

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 545 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

Updated short-term weather elements through the daytime tomorrow.
Cleaned up POPs to reflect current trends. Low-amplitude shortwave
trough north of our region is pulling off to the east, with the
system`s cold front lagging slowly behind as it dips into our
forecast area tonight. In the warm air ahead of the front, low
clouds and drizzle or a few showers remain possible into the
morning hours tomorrow. Clearing skies tomorrow should actually
allow temps to warm back into the upper 70s and lower 80s at most
sites tomorrow. /NF/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1224 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

Through this weekend: Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
are still ongoing across the southern and eastern portions of MS.
Despite continued moist advection and some breaks in the clouds,
instability remains rather weak across most of the area, and storm
intensity has remained in check. Heading through the remainder of
the afternoon, with increasing breaks in the clouds over south and
southeast MS and given sufficiently strong deep shear, there is
still a window of potential for a stronger storm or two. However, as
has been the case all along, the severe weather threat is quite low.
Damaging wind gusts would be the primary hazard with any stronger
storms. Locally heavy rainfall is also possible, and a few spots
have picked up 1-2" so far, but even the potential higher end
localized storm total amounts are unlikely to result in flash
flooding.

As we go into this evening, the convection that has been the
focus for much of today will shift into AL, and the new area of
focus for development will be along and ahead of the approaching
cold front. Given somewhat weak forcing, precip coverage along the
front will be more limited than the activity over south/east MS
earlier today. There had appeared to be some potential for
convection tonight across north MS to be robust enough to
maintain the marginal severe threat into the overnight, but latest
guidance has been quite meager even in that area, so we do not
plan to locally highlight a severe threat beyond sunset. Isolated
thunder is still a possibility, however. Otherwise, showers will
generally weaken through Saturday morning, with considerable
cloudiness and only light showers and sprinkles persisting into
the day Saturday. Patchy fog is possible ahead of the front
tonight, but with steady wind expected throughout the overnight,
the odds of dense fog are far more questionable than previous
nights this week. Behind the front, dry and cooler (albeit still
above normal) conditions will exist into Sunday. /DL/

Next week (Monday-Thursday): As shortwave ridge builds eastward to
start the work week, a more potent cold core low aloft will be
moving out of the Intermountain West and into the Central Plains.
Sharp jet energy (75-115kt jet in the 500mb to 300mb layers) will
swing across the Plains and into the Mid West to Great Lakes by
early week. This increased jet dynamics/ascent will develop a more
potent surface 1004-1008mb low across the Central Plains and drive a
stronger cold front late Monday night into Tuesday. Strong
southwesterly shear (35-50kts) will set up but remain mostly line-
parallel. This will help drive dewpoints back up into the 62-67F
degree range along and south of Interstate 20. With southwesterly
mean bulk shear, limited residence time of warm sector and less
favorable timing generally closer to the diurnal minimum, this looks
to be short duration potential. However, can`t fully rule out some
low end (non-zero) strong to severe potential Monday night into
Tuesday. There are some differences in amplitude of the filling
closed low aloft/shortwave, with the Euro slightly digging a little
more. This will affect how long rain chances persist another 24-36
hours. Rain totals will be sufficient, around 1.5 to 2 inches
(locally higher in convection or areas of training in line-parallel
storms). However, recent dryness and limited preceding rain
accumulation Friday limits confidence and holding off in HWO.
Synoptic discontinuity exists, with with Euro more progressive and
amplitude situated further north but stronger ascent and eastward
propagation, while GFS more sharp cold core over the Great
Lakes/northern Plains by midweek and continued southwesterly flow
and rain chances later Wednesday. Blended rain chances look on track
but may be a touch too slow. Regardless, 1028-1030mb surface high
will bring drier (PWs around quarter inch) and seasonably cooler
conditions into late next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 545 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

Mostly VFR conditions to start the TAF period, with a few SHRA
and TSRA continuing to move across the forecast area. Overall
measurable rain chances will decrease at the TAF sites through
12Z, but DZ and BR should remain possible through 15Z Saturday.
IFR to LIFR conditions are expected by 10Z-12Z at sites along and
south of Interstate 20. Low stratus and any BR or FG should lift
and mix to prevailing VFR by 17Z. /NF/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       66  79  51  71 /  20  10   0   0
Meridian      64  79  50  73 /  20  10   0   0
Vicksburg     65  79  51  71 /  30  10   0   0
Hattiesburg   65  82  53  77 /  20  10   0   0
Natchez       66  80  51  73 /  20  10   0   0
Greenville    60  75  50  68 /  20   0   0   0
Greenwood     61  77  50  70 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

DL/NF