848
FXUS64 KJAN 181846
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
146 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

...New DISCUSSION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 145 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

Tonight and Tomorrow...

Isolated showers will continue into tonight mainly in western
Mississippi. Overnight lows will remain seasonable despite the
cooler afternoon today as remaining high humidity that has settled
over the area will be slow to dry out despite an increasing easterly
fetch. By the early morning hours on Wednesday clouds thicken into
widespread overcast which will persist until mid morning. By that
point, the sun will begin breaking through and skies should largely
should clear, giving way to partly cloudy skies for Juneteenth.
Easterly winds may be breezy, particularly during the peak mixing
period of mid afternoon, and winds could gust up to 20 mph.

Later This Week...

The deep layer high situated off of the east coast will strengthen
and and the western flank will expand its influence locally.
Increasing heights aloft will bring generally clearer skies and
higher temperatures. An isolated shower or thunderstorm can`t be
ruled out for the rest of the week mostly along and south of the
highway 84 corridor, mostly driven by intense afternoon heating.
Deep layer moisture will remain below climate normals through the
weekend and this should result in any showers or storms being
isolated and generally disorganized. Strong to severe storms are
unlikely though brief heavy downpours could be possible should any
isolated, brief afternoon thunderstorm manage to form.

The main hazard of concern for the area will be the risk for
excessive heat as dewpoints will recover by Saturday and Sunday into
the upper 60s F and lower 70s F after having fallen into the lower
and middle 60s through midweek. This coupled with temperatures into
the upper 90s F to near 100 F in some locations could result in heat
indices above 105 F. Heat hazard products may be required later this
week.

Into Next Week...

Dewpoints and overall boundary layer moisture will largely have
recovered across the area by Monday. This will likely allow us to
return to a more seasonal pattern of isolated to scattered
afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms. Heat risk could still
be a concern, but the overall risk will likely be modulated by
convective coverage and confidence in that hazard is low.

Tropics will remain active through the period with continued
unsettled weather likely in the Gulf of Mexico. There are little if
any current indications that this will pose a substantial risk
locally, but this area of disturbed weather will be monitored
closely as trajectories and intensities of any tropical feature
several days out carries large forecast uncertainty.

The vast majority of strong hurricanes occur after July 1 so as we
are now heading into the end of June, it`s a good time to review
your hurricane preparedness strategies and supplies. /OAJ/86/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1238 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

VFR flight conditions are expected to prevail despite widespread cloud
cover. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible late
afternoon through early evening hours near southwestern/western
TAF sites. Expect easterly winds around 5-10 kts. /SW/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       72  90  72  91 /   0   0   0   0
Meridian      71  90  70  92 /   0   0   0   0
Vicksburg     72  90  72  91 /  10   0   0   0
Hattiesburg   72  91  72  93 /   0  20   0  10
Natchez       71  90  72  91 /  10  10   0   0
Greenville    74  92  72  93 /  10   0   0   0
Greenwood     73  91  72  93 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

OAJ/LP/SW