385
FXUS64 KJAN 020527
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1227 AM CDT Sun Nov 2 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

  - Patchy light frost is possible across much of the forecast
    area Sunday night into Monday morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1142 PM CDT Sat Nov 1 2025

Through Today:

A closed low will support a cold front dropping through our CWA
this morning as it tracks southeast and becomes centered over
northwest Alabama. With these features in play you`d think we
would have decent rain chances in our CWA, only a few light
showers are possible along the front. Without any appreciable
moisture advection or moisture convergence anticipated over our
CWA, models are stingy with any qpf or pops. Compared to last
night, morning lows Sunday will be cooler across the northwest
half of the CWA and slightly warmer across the southeast half. A
>1024mb surface high will build into the region Sunday in the wake
of the cold front. This will help hold afternoon highs in the 50s
across our Highway 82 corridor and in the low to mid 60s across
our south.

Tonight through next Saturday:

Global guidance continues to show a a 1024mb sfc high over the
Central Plains pushing southwards and settling over the southeast
CONUS along with building heights aloft this evening. This looks
to setup for a pretty cool night for Sunday night with nighttime
lows in the mid/upper 30s and dewpoints in the 30s. This combined
with light northerly winds will allow for patchy frost to develop
across much of our CWA. Because of this, a "Limited" threat for
patchy frost remains in place for our entire forecast area
including portions of southeast AR and all of our northeast
Louisiana parishes for Sunday night/early Monday morning
timeframe.

Heights will begin to build aloft heading into the new work week as
a sfc high continues to hover over our area. Ridging becomes
dominant heading into Tuesday leading to warmer weather across the
southeast CONUS. Afternoon highs will peak in the 70s with lows
dipping into the 50s. Quiet conditions will prevail across our area
through the late week. Future guidance continues to show the ridge
flattening by Friday in advance of a shortwave. This could lead to a
brief return of scattered rain showers across our CWA with slightly
higher rain chances (25-30%) across north MS heading into the
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1218 AM CDT Sun Nov 2 2025

VFR conditions prevail through the period with light winds from
the northwest. High clouds are clearing out of the area, but will
persist a while longer in the east. HEZ will experience lower
visibilities ranging from 2-4SM tonight. Lower visibilites should
clear shortly after daybreak. /SAS/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       62  36  65  40 /   0   0   0   0
Meridian      63  36  65  38 /   0   0   0   0
Vicksburg     61  37  65  40 /   0   0   0   0
Hattiesburg   69  39  68  40 /   0   0   0   0
Natchez       63  36  66  39 /   0   0   0   0
Greenville    58  37  63  40 /   0   0   0   0
Greenwood     59  34  65  39 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

EC/EC/SAS20