253
FXUS64 KJAN 070052 AAA
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
652 PM CST Sat Dec 6 2025

...New MESOSCALE UPDATE, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

  - Areas of dense fog are expected Sunday morning.

  - Seasonable temperatures and mostly dry weather is expected
    this next week.

&&

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 648 PM CST Sat Dec 6 2025

Areas of dense fog are expected to develop across the forecast
area tonight as temperatures radiate, and moisture spreads
northward. HREF guidance also shows decent probabilities for fog
across the area, so have issued a Dense Fog Advisory for the
entire CWA tonight through 9 AM Sunday. The rest of the short-term
forecast remains on track. /NF/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 145 PM CST Sat Dec 6 2025

Tonight into Sunday morning: The primary concern will be fog
development and the potential for dense fog. A warm advection
pattern with a cool, humid boundary layer in place should bring
widespread low stratus and fog tonight, but there is still some
uncertainty with mixing strength and just how low visibility will
be able to get. For now, have messaged a limited dense fog threat
in the hazard graphics, and will continue to monitor for greater
potential as we go into the evening.

Sunday afternoon through next week: A broad longwave trough over
the central/eastern CONUS will continue to be the primary driver
for weather in our region, resulting in mostly dry weather with
seasonable temperatures. A weak shortwave trough crossing the
Southern Plains tonight through Sunday will bring a quick round of
mostly light shower activity late Sunday into Sunday night.
Behind the departing system, we`ll see another surge of
continental polar air drawn southward into the forecast area, and
this will bring seasonably cold temperatures with a freeze
expected Monday night. Thereafter, temperatures will moderate
some, and they should actually reach above normal levels for
Wed/Thu for the first time since before Thanksgiving.

Friday into next weekend: We`re monitoring the potential for a
more significant surge of cold air by the end of next week.
Global models have trended decidedly cooler with the overall
pattern and suggest a stronger surface high may develop and surge
southward through the Plains and MS Valley, but confidence in the
sensible weather details are too low for messaging at this point.
/EC/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 648 PM CST Sat Dec 6 2025

Main concern for aviation will be low stratus and FG producing
expected widespread IFR or LIFR conditions developing and
persisting through at least 15Z Sunday. MVFR or lower conditions
should persist through the end of the TAF period at most sites.
/NF/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       43  62  42  53 /   0  40  30   0
Meridian      39  61  41  53 /  10  20  40   0
Vicksburg     44  61  39  52 /   0  60  20   0
Hattiesburg   44  67  46  58 /  10  20  50   0
Natchez       45  67  41  54 /   0  50  30   0
Greenville    41  55  38  47 /   0  40  10   0
Greenwood     41  58  38  50 /   0  40  20   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...Dense Fog Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 9 AM CST Sunday
     for MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074.

LA...Dense Fog Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 9 AM CST Sunday
     for LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026.

AR...Dense Fog Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 9 AM CST Sunday
     for ARZ074-075.

&&

$$

EC/NF