025
FXUS64 KJAN 081131 AAA
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
531 AM CST Sat Nov 8 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

  - Areas of dense fog will continue this morning.

  - Much colder air moving in will bring a freeze to portions of
    the area Sunday night, followed by a widespread significant
    freeze Monday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 345 AM CST Sat Nov 8 2025

Today through tonight: As has been the case recently, dense fog is
the primary concern in the near term, and this time it is
affecting a larger portion of the area in the mild humid air ahead
of an approaching cold front. Fog will redevelop late tonight
over southeast portions of the area, but the polar frontal
passage will mix up the boundary layer quickly as approach early
morning, so will hold off with dense fog messaging. Otherwise,
widely scattered shower activity and perhaps a few non-severe
thunderstorms will bring localized areas of mostly light rainfall
in the weak moisture convergence axis ahead of the approaching
front.

Sunday through Tuesday: There continues to be very high
confidence that impressively cold air will surge into the forecast
area Sunday into Sunday night behind a strong cold front as a
powerful and unusually cold upper level trough amplifies and digs
southward through the MS Valley. Strong mixing will take place
Sunday as colder air aloft quickly overspreads the area and
temperatures still manage to heat up a bit, especially in the late
morning to early afternoon time frame. NBM guidance probs
indicate the potential for > 35 mph max wind gusts over northwest
to central MS, so we may begin messaging for the wind potential
soon.

Otherwise, NWP guidance remain fairly consistent and there haven`t
been significant changes concerning the expectation for a
widespread freeze. Will also continue to advertise the freeze
potential for late Sunday night when strong cold advection should
allow temperatures to sneak under 32F prior to daybreak. It would
not be surprising to see many locations over central/eastern MS
fall lower than forecast and reach the 20 to 23 degree range,
which would be in record low territory. So will continue to
emphasize Mon night-Tue for the greatest impacts from a
significant freeze threat, but as we get closer in time, we will
need to emphasize Sun night-Mon as well for having more
significant impacts, especially for locations along/north of the
Hwy 82 corridor.

Wednesday through Friday: Temperatures will moderate quickly
following the Tuesday morning freeze as the upper trough and cold
surface high shift east and allow for increased southerly wind.
Dry weather with a return to above normal temperatures is the
consensus in the global model guidance for now as we go through
mid to late week. /EC/

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 531 AM CST Sat Nov 8 2025

Areas of low stratus and fog encompass much of the area this
morning resulting in categorical reductions ranging from LIFR to
MVFR. Conditions will improve to VFR at most sites by mid
morning. Isolated to scattered SHRA will be possible mainly this
morning across portions of central MS, with coverage decreasing
by afternoon. There is some potential for redevelopment of low
ceilings late tonight across parts of south MS but confidence was
not yet high enough to include at any TAF sites at this time.
/DL/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       80  51  62  32 /  20  20   0   0
Meridian      80  53  64  31 /  20  20   0   0
Vicksburg     81  51  63  32 /  20  10   0   0
Hattiesburg   83  57  69  34 /  20  30   0   0
Natchez       82  53  65  32 /  10  20   0   0
Greenville    78  50  58  31 /   0   0   0   0
Greenwood     78  49  58  29 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for MSZ018-019-
     025>034-037>039-043>046-048>066.

     Freeze Watch from late Sunday night through Monday morning for
     MSZ018-019-025>039-041>046.

LA...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for LAZ024-026.

AR...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for ARZ074-075.

     Freeze Watch from late Sunday night through Monday morning for
     ARZ074-075.

&&

$$

EC/DL