507
FXUS64 KJAN 251816
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1216 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

  - Severe thunderstorms and locally heavy rain remain possible
    through this afternoon for portions of east and southeast MS.

  - Much cooler and drier air will surge into the area Wednesday and
    continue the remainder of Thanksgiving Week.

  - Heavy rainfall could become a concern by early next week for
    northwest portions of the area.

&&

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 852 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

Current radar scans show scattered showers and t-storms propagating
northeastward across east MS. Isolated strong to severe storm
activity will start to pick up again later this morning thanks to a
combination of veered flow and frontal convergence. Strong southerly
moist advection from the Gulf will help drive dewpoints back into
the 64-68F degree range mainly along and south of I-20. The
environment this morning remains favorable for isolated severe
potential. A few adjustments were made to the severe graphic for
today and the "Marginal" risk was trimmed back mainly to cover
portions of east MS and southeast MS. Primary hazards will be
damaging winds and hail up to quarter size. A few brief tornadoes
cannot be ruled out. Timing still looks to be 9AM to 5PM, but ending
as early as 3PM in east MS. Afternoon highs will peak in the
mid/upper 70s with a few areas across the Pine Belt peaking in the
low 80s. /CR/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1259 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

Today through tonight...

Surface low and frontal system continues to swing eastward with the
strongest forcing remaining well off to the north into the Ozarks to
Mid MS to OH Valleys. Forcing from a secondary spoke of energy over
central TX, low level jet, and frontal convergence resulted in rain
and storm coverage into the morning hours. The severe thunderstorm
potential will continue through 8AM as a QLCS propagates from
southwest to northeast across the area. There could also be discrete
supercell development potential a touch earlier ahead of the forced
squall line, which could have all modes of severe weather possible
in these severe storms. The ongoing QLCS will be the main focus,
with the best severe potential persisting through 8AM to the
southeast. Increasing confidence of heavy rainfall, as training
convection has set up along and north of a line near Bastrop to
Grenada producing rainfall estimates between 2-4 inches so far. Some
areas could see an additional 1-3 inches, with locally higher
amounts, in a short duration through 7AM. No adjustments were made
to the hazard graphic for flash flooding. In addition, surface low
won`t be really deep but there will be some pressure gradient (4mb)
for some gusty gradient winds, at most around 25mph gusts or a touch
higher at times.

There will be a brief break in activity, before more veered flow but
frontal convergence could get some strong to isolated severe
activity going again. Strong mean southwesterly shear will set up
but remain mostly line-parallel. Strong moist advection will drive
dewpoints back up into the 64-68F degree range along and south of
Interstate 20. With strong southwesterly mean bulk shear, lapse
rates, favorable thermodynamics, severe threat and advertisement in
HWO of Slight/Marginal risk remains warranted. No adjustments were
made to today`s severe graphic as all modes of severe weather
remains possible. Timing still looks to be 9AM to 5PM, but ending as
early as 3PM in east MS.

Seasonably warm conditions continues with highs some 10F to 15F
above (72F to 82F) and low temps ranging from 45F in the Delta to 55
in the southeast. /DC/CR/

********No adjustments were made to the extended period********

Wednesday through next week Monday...

Rain chances will continue across our forecast area through around
daybreak Wednesday before a strong frontal passage brings a pattern
change. Quiet and seasonably cooler weather conditions, 5-8F below,
will occur across the southeast region late this week on
Thanksgiving into late week (Thursday into Friday) thanks to mean
northerly flow/subsidence, 1028-1032mb sfc high propagating
southeastward across the area, and PW less than half inch. Model
consensus from both the GFS and the Euro are still showing Wednesday
night through Thursday night being the coldest periods with
nighttime temperatures in the low to mid 30s. A couple of areas
along and east of i-20 could see overnight lows drop to below
freezing Thursday night, with a light frost/freeze possible by late
Thursday night/early Friday morning timeframe. Quiet conditions will
continue through Friday evening as the 1032 sfc high begins to
propagate eastward towards the Carolinas.

Looking ahead into the weekend, future guidance is still
highlighting quite an active weather pattern developing over much of
the central CONUS. A major longwave trough axis is forecasted to set
over the Rockies into the Plains while a strong ridge builds up over
the East Coast. This will help place our CWA in favorable deep
southwest flow aloft for multiple rounds of showers and storms. At
the moment, global models are still showing increasing potential for
heavy rainfall to develop, with greater potential over the ArkLaMiss
Delta region. Trends will continue to be monitored over the next
several days. /CR/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1216 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

Local radar scans are currently showing scattered showers and storms
over the east and southeast half of the area. As of 1812Z, GLH,
GWO, GTR and HBG are reporting MVFR ceilings. GTR is currently
under IFR ceilings due to -SHRA and a low stratus cloud deck.
Conditions will begin to gradually improve to from the west this
afternoon by 21Z Tuesday as the cold front continues to move east
across the area. Ceilings will continue to improve to VFR by 23Z
Tuesday and VFR ceilings will prevail through the end of the TAF
period. Winds will be out of the west before shifting to the north
by 06Z Wednesday. A brief period of low level wind shear will be
possible across GTR between 08Z - 10Z Wednesday. /CR/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       50  60  36  57 /   0   0   0   0
Meridian      50  63  34  57 /  10   0   0   0
Vicksburg     49  60  36  58 /   0   0   0   0
Hattiesburg   53  69  38  62 /  20   0   0   0
Natchez       50  62  37  60 /   0   0   0   0
Greenville    45  55  36  54 /   0   0   0   0
Greenwood     45  56  33  55 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

DC/CR/CR