004
FXUS62 KJAX 091936
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
236 PM EST Tue Dec 9 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Freeze Warnings & Frost Advisories Overnight & Early Wednesday
  Morning. Freeze Warning Area: Inland Southeast GA. Frost
  Advisory Areas: Portions of Coastal Southeast GA and Portions
  of Inland Northeast FL. Widespread Frost Expected in the
  Freeze Warning & Frost Advisory Areas.

- Small Craft Advisory Expected for the Offshore Waters on
  Wednesday Night.

- Light Freeze and Widespread Frost at Inland Locations on
  Thursday Night.

- High Risk for Rip Currents at the Northeast FL Beaches This
  Afternoon. Moderate Risk at the Southeast GA Beaches through
  Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

Afternoon surface analysis depicts high pressure (1028
millibars)  centered over the coastal Carolina region and
extending its axis southwestward across the Deep South.
Aloft...broad troughing remains in place across the eastern half
of the nation, with a moisture- starved shortwave embedded
within this longwave trough currently traversing the southern
Appalachians. Surface ridging wedging down the southeastern
seaboard and weak coastal troughing situated over our near shore
Atlantic waters helped to advect a deck of low stratus clouds
southwestward across southeast GA and portions of northeast FL
earlier this morning. The seasonably low sun angle has only
allowed for a gradual erosion of this stratus deck across inland
portions of southeast GA and along the I-10 corridor in
northeast FL, with additional marine stratocumulus cloud cover
being generated by weak coastal troughing also advecting onshore
along the I-95 corridor. Temperatures beneath the stratus deck
were still in the 40s across inland southeast GA as of 19Z, with
50s elsewhere, except 60-65 across north central FL, where
sunshine has been more plentiful thus far this afternoon.
Dewpoints ranged from the low and mid 30s across inland
southeast GA to the 40s elsewhere.

High pressure will gradually weaken as it slides southward over
our area overnight, setting up radiational cooling at inland
locations. A light freeze is expected across inland southeast
GA, with frost extending to coastal portions of southeast GA and
along the Interstate 10 corridor in the Suwannee Valley and
inland portions of northeast FL. Frost advisories have been
issued for these locations, with a freeze warning maintained for
all of inland southeast GA, where lows will fall to the upper
20s and lower 30s. Weakening coastal troughing over our local
waters will likely maintain a weak northwesterly breeze along
the I-95 corridor, keeping lows in the 40s at coastal locations
in northeast FL as well as for most of north central FL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

Cooler than normal temperatures continue Wednesday and Thursday,
with high pressure overhead Wednesday a weak cold front moving
through the area by Thursday morning. Highs Wednesday will be in
the 60s area-wide after a cold and frosty morning, with sunny
skies and westerly winds. Overnight, lows will fall into the
upper 30s for inland southeast Georgia and 40s elsewhere, not
quite cold enough for frost. Thursday will be cooler after the
frontal passage, with highs ranging from the mid 50s near inland
southeast Georgia, to mid 60s for north central Florida with
northwest winds continuing to bring in cooler and drier air.
Lows Thursday night will flirt with touching freezing in
southeast Georgia, with patchy frost likely.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

Dry conditions continue through the weekend, despite a front
moving through the area on Sunday. Temperatures will mainly be
in the 60s again Friday, before a nice warm up this weekend.
Saturday and Sunday highs will be in the low 70s for southeast
Georgia and mid to upper 70s for northeast Florida with mostly
sunny skies. Monday will be much cooler following the dry cold
frontal passage on Sunday, leaving temperatures in the 50s for
southeast Georgia and 60s for northeast Florida with breezy
northeasterly winds as the pressure gradient tightens. Lows
Sunday and Monday nights will dip into the mid 30s over inland
southeast Georgia, but likely too windy overnight for frost
formation at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...

MVFR ceilings will prevail through around 21Z at VQQ, JAX, and
SGJ. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail at the regional
terminals through at least 04Z tonight. Fog and low stratus
ceilings will likely develop at VQQ towards 05Z, with LIFR
conditions expected overnight through around sunrise on
Wednesday. Fog may expand to the JAX and CRG terminals after
08Z, but confidence was only high enough to indicate MVFR
visibilities through around 13Z at this time. VFR conditions
will then prevail at the regional terminals before 14Z
Wednesday. Breezy northeasterly surface winds, sustained at
10-15 knots, will prevail at the regional terminals through
around 22Z. Surface winds will then shift to north northwesterly
overnight while gradually diminishing, followed by westerly
surface winds developing by 14Z and then increasing to around 10
knots towards 17Z Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...

High pressure will gradually weaken as it becomes centered over our
region tonight, allowing for winds and seas to gradually subside.
Westerly winds will then develop and strengthen on Wednesday
afternoon and evening ahead of an approaching dry frontal boundary,
with Small Craft Advisory conditions expected offshore on Wednesday
night. This front will cross our region late Wednesday night,
followed by another high pressure center building towards our region
on Thursday and Friday. This high pressure center will then shift
offshore by early Saturday ahead of the next frontal boundary that
will approach our local waters from the northwest on Sunday
afternoon. This front will likely remain dry as it crosses our local
waters on Sunday night. Strong high pressure building to the north
of our region in the wake of this frontal passage will result in
strengthening northerly winds on Sunday night that will shift to
northeasterly on Monday. Small Craft Advisory conditions are likely
throughout our local waters from Sunday night through Monday
evening.

Rip Currents: Southeast GA: Moderate through Wednesday
Northeast FL: High this Afternoon, Moderate on Wednesday

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Good dispersion is expected on Wednesday ahead of an incoming
dry cold front that will pass through overnight. Thursday winds
will shift to northwesterly behind the front with fair to good
dispersion forecast. Min RH Thursday and Friday will dip into
the 30s, with values improving this weekend. Light and variable
winds Friday will leave poor dispersion with patchy low values
near north central Florida and the Atlantic coast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  29  61  38  57 /   0   0   0   0
SSI  39  64  45  60 /   0   0   0   0
JAX  37  67  42  63 /   0   0   0   0
SGJ  47  68  47  64 /   0   0   0   0
GNV  39  68  44  65 /   0   0   0   0
OCF  44  68  46  66 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 8 AM EST Wednesday for FLZ021-023-
     024-030-120-220-322-422-522.
     High Risk for Rip Currents until 1 AM EST Wednesday for FLZ124-125-
     138-233-333.
GA...Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 8 AM EST Wednesday for GAZ154.
     Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 8 AM EST Wednesday for GAZ132>136-
     149-151>153-162-163-165-250-264-350-364.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$