


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
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354 FXUS62 KJAX 181724 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 124 PM EDT Sat Oct 18 2025 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf - High Rip Current Risk at the Northeast FL Beaches - Minor Tidal Flooding this Weekend for the St. Johns Basin. Main Impact Area: Downtown Jacksonville Southward - Isolated TStorms Possible on Sunday Afternoon & Evening && .NEAR TERM... Issued at 119 PM EDT Sat Oct 18 2025 Another pleasant day is underway across the area as high pressure continues to slowly slide to our east/northeast through tonight. Flow is starting to gradually shift more southeasterly as this occurs, which will allow high temps a few degrees warmer than Friday, with low 80s and a few spots in the mid 80s common inland, and in the upper 70s to low 80s near the coast and St. Johns River. Some diurnal cumulus will be more common the further east you go with the onshore flow, but otherwise much more sunshine than clouds further inland. Cloud cover mostly dwindles tonight, with lows slightly warmer than this morning thanks to slightly higher low level moisture. Expecting upper 50s to be most common inland, and low to mid 60s near the I-95 corridor to the coast. With slightly higher low level moisture, patchy fog will also be expected once again away from the coast, though not expected to be a significant impact at this time. && .SHORT TERM... (Sunday through Monday night) Issued at 119 PM EDT Sat Oct 18 2025 Showers with a possibility for thunderstorms will move through the region on Sunday from out of the west, ahead of an advancing cold front. The frontal boundary will stall over the region by Monday bringing clearing skies and dry weather as high pressure conditions settle over the forecast area. Breezy south- southwesterly winds will build in ahead of the frontal passage with surface winds becoming more mild and variable by Monday with diurnal sea breeze winds extending inland to the St Johns River. High temperatures will drop from out of the lower to mid 80s on Sunday down into the 70s and lower 80s on Monday. Overnight low temperatures will drop down into the 50s over southeast Georgia and into the lower to mid 50s and in the upper 50s to lower & mid 60s for northeast Florida. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through next Saturday) Issued at 119 PM EDT Sat Oct 18 2025 A second dry cold front will press in from out of the northwest by midweek, ensuring high pressure and dry weather conditions will continue through the end of the week. High temperatures for the rest of the week will drop down to be near the seasonal average with overnight low temperatures will drop down to be below the seasonal average by the latter part of the week. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 119 PM EDT Sat Oct 18 2025 VFR continues through this evening, with only some scattered to occasionally broken fair weather Cu and winds around 8-12 knots. Some patchy fog will be possible for inland airfields late tonight and early Sunday Morning, especially at VQQ where some restrictions are in the forecast. A cool front affects the region later on Sunday, though any impacts are expected to occur after the forecast period and will likely be minimal. && .MARINE... Issued at 119 PM EDT Sat Oct 18 2025 High pressure near the coast of the Carolinas will shift south and eastward into the western Atlantic through Monday. A cool front will move across area waters Sunday Evening through early Monday Morning, with only isolated showers and thunderstorms expected during this period at this time. High pressure builds back into the region on Monday and before retreating north and eastward Tuesday as another weak, dry cool front moves across the region Tuesday Night into Wednesday. High pressure once again builds in from the northwest on Wednesday and remains the dominant feature through the rest of the week. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 1217 AM EDT Sat Oct 18 2025 Minor Tidal/Coastal flooding will continue around times of high tide along the St. Johns River Basin, mainly south of JAX, through the weekend with peak water levels in the 1.5 to 2.0 ft MHHW range and Coastal Flood Advisory will remain intact. The frontal passage late in the weekend will help to release some of the trapped water in the St. Johns and headlines may be able to be dropped by Sunday night or Monday time frame. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 57 81 51 75 / 0 50 10 0 SSI 65 81 60 73 / 0 20 20 0 JAX 60 86 60 77 / 0 30 20 0 SGJ 64 85 66 77 / 10 20 20 0 GNV 57 86 62 82 / 0 30 20 0 OCF 61 86 65 82 / 0 30 20 0 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 PM EDT Sunday for FLZ038-132-137- 138-325-633. High Rip Current Risk through late Sunday night for FLZ124-125- 138-233-333. GA...None. AM...None. && $$