895
FXUS62 KJAX 051142
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
642 AM EST Fri Dec 5 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Isolated Thunderstorms Possible Along & North of I-10 through
  Tonight

- Periods of Heavy Rainfall Possible Across Southeast GA Sat &
  Sat Night

- Heavy Rainfall Shifts Southward Across Northeast FL on Sun.
  Isolated Thunderstorms Possible Area-Wide. Severe Weather Not
  Anticipated.

- Severe to Extreme Drought Continues for Inland Areas.

- Light Freezes & Frost Possible Inland Mon & Tues Nights

- Moderate Rip Current Risk Continues at Area Beaches

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

Showers and possible embedded thunderstorms, initially located
over inland southeast Georgia, will build build southward into
northeast Florida with the heavier developments expected to
occur north of the I-10 corridor as moist southwesterly flow
associated with broad troughing channels across the region,
south of the stalled boundary extending across Georgia. Breezy
winds will build in over northeast Florida from out of the
southwest and peaking in the afternoon before becoming more mild
and variable during the evening and overnight hours. High
temperatures for today will reach up into the upper 50s and into
the 60s over southeast Georgia behind the cold air boundary
with temps southward into northeast Florida rising into the
upper 70s and lower 80s. Overnight low temperatures will drop
down into the upper 40s and lower 50s over southeast Georgia and
range between the lower to mid 50s and into the mid 60s over
northeast Florida, with warmer temps occurring over north
central Florida. Potential for fog developments during the
overnight and early AM hours leading into Saturday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

A messy but beneficial rain pattern will continue to set up this
weekend. For Saturday, a cold front will be across the southern
zones Saturday morning and slowly ease southwards weak high pressure
moves just north of the area. This occurs as weak shortwave
disturbances ride west to east in the prevailing west to southwest
aloft. The front should slide into central FL by Saturday night but
it will begin to stall as the flow aloft backs in response to
moderately strong shortwave energy moves into the central U.S. This
latter system will begin to form a surface low over the northern
Gulf Saturday night. The front will push back into north central FL
Sunday into Sunday night with a couple of waves of low pressure
moving along the front, with moderate to strong synoptic lift
affecting the area in conjunction with plenty of moisture across the
area. A complex surface low will finally move offshore of the
southeast U.S. coast Monday morning with a trailing cold front noted
over north central FL at that time.

Max temperatures will generally be below normal, except for the
far south zones where some mid to upper 70s possible on Saturday.
Chilly for interior southeast GA with highs about 55 to 60. Lows will
be above normal given the abundant cloud cover expected and the high
chances of rain.

As far as weather, high chances of rain, categorical above 75
percent for southeast GA on Saturday, with this enhanced rain chances
slowly move southeastward into Saturday night and Sunday. Otherwise,
likely rain for just above any location Saturday through Sunday
night. Have a small chance of thunder for Sunday as better low level
convergence is available and there is scant buoyancy in tandem. Any
thunder probably will move offshore Sunday night as the sfc low
tracks offshore gradually. Severe weather is not anticipated at this
time.

We have additional rainfall amounts of about 1-2 inches forecast for
Saturday into Sunday night. There is potential for 3-4 inches during
this period.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

Surface low pressure along the front shifts well northeast of the
area on Monday with trailing cold front sweeping southward over the
FL peninsula. Surface high pressure initially over the Ohio and TN
valley area will shift southward into mid week. A coastal trough
seems to form by Tue and into early Wed keeping the coastal
northeast FL breezy at times but no rain is mentioned at this time.
The high does begin to shift south of the area Wed night, with a
weak dry front possibly moving into the forecast area on Thursday.

There could be some lingering patches of rain early Monday but
should be rain-free by midday through the rest of the mid week period
as the high builds into the area and the dry front approaches.

Overall, chilly/below normal temperatures this period with potential
for inland light freeze and/or frost for southeast GA.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...

Multilayered clouds over the region at this time with some MVFR cigs
around SSI at times that will eventually become prevailing. At the
same time, some shower activity will continue pushing in from the
west during the day and into the evening hours. A period MVFR cigs
appears probable for portions of northeast FL as well by the early
afternoon, improving a bit in the afternoon but additional low clouds
will move in from the west later today that will bring IFR to the
terminals by the evening hours, first at SSI forecast to be about
22z, Duval terminals by 00z-01z, then GNV and SGJ by 03z-06z. LIFR
looks probable after 06z with low cigs and vsby with scattered rains
expected as well. TSRA chances are low enough to preclude mention in
the TAFs at this time. Lastly, included LLWS for Duval TAFs and SSI
with the JAX VWP showing 30-35 kt at 1-2 kft and guidance
suggesting it for a few hours after 12z.

&&

.MARINE...

Weak low pressure along the northern Gulf coast will lift a warm
front northeastward across our local waters today, accompanied by
showers and possibly an isolated thunderstorm. Weak low pressure
will move northeastward across southeastern Georgia this afternoon,
with this storm system`s cold front then crossing our local waters
on Friday night and Saturday morning. A wave of low pressure will
then develop along this front just south of the northeast Florida
waters on Saturday night, with widespread rainfall and a few
embedded thunderstorms likely across our local waters through
Sunday. Low pressure will then strengthen as it moves offshore on
Sunday night and Monday, resulting in strengthening north
northwesterly winds as rainfall ends, with Small Craft Advisory
conditions possible from Monday through early Tuesday.

Rip Currents: SE GA Moderate through Saturday
              NE FL Moderate through Saturday

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Mostly cloudy and wet for today through and the weekend. Multiple
rounds of rainfall are expected through the weekend ahead of an
approaching cold front that will move through Sunday night. The
showers will be heaviest today over Southeast GA into the Suwannee
Valley with the axis of heavier showers moving into Northeast FL
late Saturday into much of Sunday before ending by Sunday Night.
Isolated thunderstorms are possible with the heavier showers as
well, but no severe storms are expected.

The clouds, low mixing heights, and the lighter winds will allow for
low daytime dispersions through the weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  48  56  45  60 /  60  90  60  40
SSI  52  62  50  63 /  50  80  80  60
JAX  53  66  52  64 /  30  60  80  70
SGJ  58  71  56  69 /  20  40  70  80
GNV  59  73  56  69 /  20  50  70  80
OCF  62  76  58  72 /  20  50  70  80

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$