386
FXUS62 KJAX 100009
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
709 PM EST Tue Dec 9 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Freeze Warnings & Frost Advisories Overnight & Early Wed Morning.
Freeze Warning Area: Inland Southeast GA. Frost Advisory: Suwannee
Valley & Portions of Inland Northeast FL. Widespread Frost Expected
in the Freeze Warning & Frost Advisory Areas

- Small Craft Advisory Expected for the Offshore Waters Wed Night

- Light Freeze & Widespread Frost at Inland Locations on Thurs Night

- High Risk for Rip Currents at the Northeast FL Beaches Today.
Moderate Risk at the Southeast GA Beaches

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Afternoon surface analysis depicts high pressure (1028 millibars)
centered over the coastal Carolina region and extending its axis
southwestward across the Deep South. Aloft...broad troughing remains
in place across the eastern half of the nation, with a moisture-
starved shortwave embedded within this longwave trough currently
traversing the southern Appalachians. Surface ridging wedging down
the southeastern seaboard and weak coastal troughing situated over
our near shore Atlantic waters helped to advect a deck of low
stratus clouds southwestward across southeast GA and portions of
northeast FL earlier this morning. The seasonably low sun angle has
only allowed for a gradual erosion of this stratus deck across
inland portions of southeast GA and along the I-10 corridor in
northeast FL, with additional marine stratocumulus cloud cover being
generated by weak coastal troughing also advecting onshore along the
I-95 corridor. Temperatures beneath the stratus deck were still in
the 40s across inland southeast GA as of 19Z, with 50s elsewhere,
except 60-65 across north central FL, where sunshine has been more
plentiful thus far this afternoon. Dewpoints ranged from the low and
mid 30s across inland southeast GA to the 40s elsewhere.

High pressure will gradually weaken as it slides southward over our
area overnight, setting up radiational cooling at inland locations.
A light freeze is expected across inland southeast GA, with frost
extending to coastal portions of southeast GA and along the
Interstate 10 corridor in the Suwannee Valley and inland portions of
northeast FL. Frost advisories have been issued for these locations,
with a freeze warning maintained for all of inland southeast GA,
where lows will fall to the upper 20s and lower 30s. Weakening
coastal troughing over our local waters will likely maintain a weak
northwesterly breeze along the I-95 corridor, keeping lows in the
40s at coastal locations in northeast FL as well as for most of
north central FL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Cooler than normal temperatures continue Wednesday and Thursday with
high pressure overhead Wednesday, and a weak cold front moving
through the area by Thursday morning. Highs Wednesday will be in the
60s area-wide after a cold and frosty morning, with sunny skies and
westerly winds. Overnight, lows will fall into the upper 30s for
inland southeast Georgia and 40s elsewhere, not quite cold enough
for frost. Thursday will be cooler after the frontal passage, with
highs ranging from the mid 50s near inland southeast Georgia, to mid
60s for north central Florida with northwest winds continuing to
bring in cooler and drier air. Lows Thursday night will flirt with
touching freezing in southeast Georgia, with patchy frost likely.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Dry conditions continue through the weekend, despite a front moving
through the area on Sunday. Temperatures will mainly be in the 60s
again Friday, before a nice warmup this weekend. Saturday and Sunday
highs will be in the low 70s for southeast Georgia and mid to upper
70s for northeast Florida with mostly sunny skies. Monday will be
much cooler following the dry cold frontal passage on Sunday,
leaving temperatures in the 50s for southeast Georgia and 60s for
northeast Florida with breezy northeasterly winds as the pressure
gradient tightens. Lows Sunday and Monday nights will dip into the
mid 30s over inland Southeast Georgia, but likely too windy
overnight for frost formation at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
High pressure just to the north will build south over the area
tonight, west of the TAF sites as coastal troughing to the east
weakens over the next several hours.

MVFR broken to overcast ceilings 1.5 to 2.5 kft will continue along
the Northeast FL coastal terminals through 06Z and through 02Z at
SSI due to the influence of the coastal trouging and northeasterly
winds 8-10 knots. At the inland TAF sites light north to northeast
winds will trend calm into 06Z and patchy fog will develop and
become locally dense, lowering VQQ down to LIFR/VLIFR after 06Z
and GNV down to IFR levels by 09Z. Improvement back to VFR is
expected by 13Z at VQQ and 14Z at GNV.

High pressure will shift southwest of the area through the day
Wednesday and light winds will shift from the northwest after
13Z around 5 knots to westerly after 17-18Z about 5-10 knots.
The high will limit clouds during the day with sunny skies in
the afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...


High pressure will gradually weaken as it becomes centered over our
region tonight, allowing for winds and seas to gradually subside.
Westerly winds will then develop and strengthen on Wednesday
afternoon and evening ahead of an approaching dry frontal boundary,
with Small Craft Advisory conditions expected offshore on Wednesday
night. This front will cross our region late Wednesday night,
followed by another high pressure center building towards our region
on Thursday and Friday. This high pressure center will then shift
offshore by early Saturday ahead of the next frontal boundary that
will approach our local waters from the northwest on Sunday
afternoon. This front will likely remain dry as it crosses our local
waters on Sunday night. Strong high pressure building to the north
of our region in the wake of this frontal passage will result in
strengthening northerly winds on Sunday night that will shift to
northeasterly on Monday. Small Craft Advisory conditions are likely
throughout our local waters from Sunday night through Monday
evening.

Rip Currents: SE GA Moderate Wednesday
              NE FL Moderate Wednesday

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
     PATCHY LOW DISPERSIONS INLAND NE FL AND COAST FRIDAY...



Good dispersion is expected on Wednesday ahead of an incoming dry
cold front that will pass through overnight. Thursday winds will
shift to northwesterly behind the front with fair to good dispersion
forecast. Min RH Thursday and Friday will dip into the 30s, with
values improving this weekend. Light and variable winds Friday will
leave poor dispersion with patchy low values near north central
Florida and the Atlantic coast.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Areas to Widespread frost inland SE
GA, with patchy frost inland NE FL Tuesday night. Patchy frost
inland SE GA Thursday night.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  29  61  38  57 /   0   0   0   0
SSI  39  64  45  60 /   0   0   0   0
JAX  37  67  42  63 /   0   0   0   0
SGJ  47  68  47  64 /   0   0   0   0
GNV  39  68  44  65 /   0   0   0   0
OCF  44  68  46  66 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 8 AM EST Wednesday for FLZ021-023-
     024-030-120-220-322-422-522.
     High Risk for Rip Currents until 1 AM EST Wednesday for FLZ124-125-
     138-233-333.
GA...Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 8 AM EST Wednesday for GAZ154.
     Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 8 AM EST Wednesday for GAZ132>136-
     149-151>153-162-163-165-250-264-350-364.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$