241
FXUS62 KJAX 210505
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
1205 AM EST Fri Nov 21 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Dense Fog Possible Late Tonight and Early Friday Morning. Areas
Potentially Impacted: Southeast GA, I-95 & U.S.-301 Corridors in

- Northeast & North Central FL. Additional Rounds of Morning Fog
Likely at Inland Locations this Weekend

- Near Record Warmth Continues Inland into Next Week

- Extended Dry Spell Continues through Early Next Week. Be very
cautious with outdoor fires  check for local burn bans. Severe to
Extreme Drought Expanding Across Inland Southeast GA & the

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

Early this morning...Areas of dense fog still on track to
develop across SE GA and coastal NE FL and into the near-shore
coastal waters and expect enough of this dense fog to become
widespread enough for dense fog advisories, and these have
already been posted for the I-95 corridor and US 301 corridors
in SE GA.

Today...After morning dense fog, high pressure over the region
will drift further SE down the FL Peninsula and expect low level
steering flow to become more SW with above normal temps and dry
weather continuing this afternoon with highs in the lower to
middle 80s inland, and around 80F at the Atlantic Coastal areas
as a weak East Coast sea breeze develops and pushes inland to
the I-95 and US 17 corridors, but not enough moisture for any
rainfall chances.

Tonight...High pressure center continues to press south of the
region with SW steering flow remaining in place and expect low
level moisture to push off the NE Gulf, with a shift in dense
fog potential to inland NE FL and into the Suwannee Valley
across inland North FL and into inland SE GA later tonight, but
will depend on any increase in high clouds over the SE states.
Low temps generally still in the mid/upper 50s inland and lower
60s along the Atlantic Coastal areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

High pressure over the FL peninsula retreats southward as a cold
front moves through the SE US on Saturday. Southwesterly flow
ahead of the front will usher in some low level moisture but
likely not enough to overcome the dry airmass over the region.
The aforementioned cold front will pass through the area
Saturday night into Sunday and is expected to be mostly dry
given limited moisture and weakening upper level support. A
stray shower will be possible ahead of the boundary Saturday
afternoon for far inland SE GA. This lack of rainfall will
unfortunately not bring any relief to the severe/extreme drought
conditions in our area. High pressure builds in the wake of the
front shifting winds to NNE on Sunday. Due to the increase in
moisture, inland fog will remain possible Saturday and Sunday
mornings. Above seasonable temperatures continue on Saturday
with highs in the low 80s area-wide. Temperatures return closer
to seasonable across SE GA on Sunday as brief cold air advection
filters in from the north.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

High pressure over the eastern US on Monday will shift into the
western Atlantic Tuesday into Wednesday. Coastal troughing
develops over the local waters on Monday with a few showers
developing in the breezy onshore flow. Temps quickly warm back
to above seasonable with developing SSW flow and a warm front
lifting northward up the FL peninsula into midweek. A stronger
cold front moves through the SE US Tuesday into Thursday. This
system will bring our next chance of rainfall for midweek
although it is still uncertain if it will be enough to help the
current drought. Otherwise, fog development will continue to be
of concern during the upcoming week as moisture continues to be
advect into the area due to the southerly flow.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Dense fog and low stratus ceilings are expected to overspread SSI,
the Duval County terminals, and SGJ overnight through the predawn
hours on Friday. Confidence in ceiling and visibility impacts at GNV
remains low at this time, and we have thus indicated MVFR conditions
beginning around 09Z. MVFR visibilities at SSI will likely
deteriorate to IFR by 03Z and then LIFR by 05Z. Onset times at the
Duval County terminals and SGJ are less certain, with MVFR
conditions forecast to begin at VQQ after 03Z and at JAX, CRG, and
SGJ after 06Z. LIFR conditions should then prevail at these
terminals by 09Z. Fog and low stratus ceilings will then lift in the
13Z-15Z time frame on Friday morning, with VFR conditions expected
to prevail by 16Z. Light easterly surface winds early this evening
will diminish by midnight, followed by southwesterly winds
developing and increasing to around 5 knots as fog and stratus
ceilings lift towards 15Z.

&&

.MARINE...

Weakening high pressure will continue to shift slowly
southeastward across the Florida peninsula through Saturday.
Dense sea fog is expected to develop early this morning across
the Georgia waters, with this fog potentially extending to the
near shore waters adjacent to coastal northeast Florida before
dissipating by early afternoon. A weakening and mostly dry
frontal boundary will then push southward through the Georgia
waters on Saturday night, with this boundary pushing across the
northeast FL waters early on Sunday morning. High pressure will
build eastward from the Ozarks on Sunday towards the Mid-
Atlantic states by Monday afternoon, with breezy onshore winds
developing across our local waters from Sunday afternoon through
Monday afternoon. A stronger cold front may then push eastward
across the southeastern states on Wednesday and Wednesday night,
with southerly winds expected to develop ahead of this front
beginning on Tuesday evening.

Rip Currents: Low risk of rip currents with surf/breakers of 1-2
feet Today into the weekend with general offshore flow, with
only a weak onshore/sea breeze during the afternoon hours.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

...LOW DISPERSIONS TODAY AT THE COAST AND NORTH-CENTRAL FL..

.DISCUSSION...

Another warm and dry day is in store today as high pressure
gradually retreats. Breezy southwesterly winds develop across inland
southeast Georgia this afternoon ahead of an approaching front.
Dispersions today will range from fair in southeast Georgia to low
at the Atlantic coast and north-central Florida. Breezy
southwesterly winds will spread across the entire area on Saturday
as the aforementioned front pushes southeastward into and through
the region overnight Saturday into Sunday. This will lead to good
daytime dispersions area-wide and an increase in low level moisture.
Unfortunately, this frontal passage will lack any much needed
rainfall for the area suffering from severe/extreme drought
conditions. Northeasterly winds behind the front Sunday will trend
easterly by Monday.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS...Patchy to areas of fog are likely
this morning and Saturday morning. Dense fog will be focused along
the I-95 corridor this morning and I-75 corridor Saturday morning.

&&

.CLIMATE...

Daily Record High Maximum Temperatures at local climate sites...

                          FRI 11/21  SAT 11/22

Jacksonville, FL (JAX)     84/1991    84/1973
Craig Exec Arpt  (CRG)     82/2004    81/1997
Gainesville, FL  (GNV)     86/1973    86/1906
Alma, Georgia    (AMG)     83/2011    83/2011


&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
AMG  57  82  57  77 /  10  10   0   0
SSI  60  79  62  73 /  10   0   0   0
JAX  57  83  61  80 /  10   0   0   0
SGJ  58  81  63  78 /  10   0   0   0
GNV  55  83  62  83 /   0   0   0   0
OCF  54  82  61  82 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for FLZ024-038-
     124-125-138-225-233-325-333-425-433-533-633.
GA...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for GAZ136-
     152>154-165-166-264.
MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until noon EST today for AMZ450-452.

&&

$$