773
FXUS62 KJAX 180120
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
820 PM EST Mon Nov 17 2025

...New UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Near-Elevated Fire Weather Conditions in Southeast GA. Very Low Humidity this Afternoon and Critically Dry Fuels. Be very cautious with outdoor flames  check for local burning bans

- Extended Dry Spell Continues this Week. Severe to Extreme Drought Inland Southeast GA & Northern Suwannee Valley

- Morning Fog Tuesday & Wednesday

- Locally dense near I-75 Wednesday morning

- Moderate Rip Current Risk at the Northeast FL Beaches

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 817 PM EST Mon Nov 17 2025

Added areas of fog late tonight west of downtown Jacksonville
into the Gainesville area as high pressure will extend from near
eastern NC overnight and winds become calm away from the coast.
While not expecting potential for a Dense Fog Advisory, localized
dense fog under a mile may form in patches along the highway 301
corridor over inland NE FL before sunrise. Also cooled lows
another degree for tonight as the passing shield of thin high
cirrus from the west should not be enough of a factor and will
exit off the NE FL coast well after which should allow lows to
fall below guidance to 40-45 over inland SE GA, upper 40s over the
Suwannee Valley to near 50 along I-75, low 50s along the SE GA
coast/inland NE FL east of highway 301, and upper 50s to around
60F along the NE FL coast.

Tuesday will be pleasant weatherwise as highs return above normal
into the upper 70s for inland SE GA to the low 80s over inland NE
FL with mid 70s on the coast from onshore easterly light winds
5-10 mph behind a weak seabreeze. A few clouds will move onto the
coast from the Atlantic, but conditions will be dry.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(through Tonight)
Issued at 122 PM EST Mon Nov 17 2025

The frontal boundary will stall and weaken tonight just south of
the Interstate 4 corridor as zonal flow aloft develops across the
southeastern states. Our local pressure gradient will loosen
overnight as high pressure builds into the southeastern states,
with winds at inland locations decoupling early this evening.
Mostly thin cirrus will move across our area overnight as flow
aloft becomes more zonal in nature, with these high clouds likely
exiting into the Atlantic waters towards sunrise. The dry air mass
will result in lows ranging from around 40 across inland
southeast GA to around 50 for north central FL. A light onshore
breeze this evening should shift to a light offshore breeze
overnight as weak coastal troughing develops over our near shore
Atlantic waters, with lows remaining in the 50s overnight at
coastal locations.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday through Wednesday)
Issued at 122 PM EST Mon Nov 17 2025

Dry weather continues over the region as nearby surface high
pressure shifts off the coast of North Carolina and into the
Atlantic through Wednesday. Low level moisture gradually returns
as winds shift to southerly by mid-week. Main weather concern will
be the potential for overnight and early morning inland fog due
to clear skies and calm winds. Sunny skies and prevailing
subsidence will maintain warmer than seasonable temperatures with
highs rising into the upper 70s to low 80s and overnight lows in
the upper 40s to upper 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 122 PM EST Mon Nov 17 2025

High pressure ridging over the region shifts southeastward on
Friday as a cold front moves into the SE US for the weekend.
Southwesterly flow ahead of the front for the end of the work week
will continue above seasonable to potentially near record highs
and moisture advection. The next chance for rain appears to be
Saturday ahead of the front although uncertainty remains if there
will be enough rainfall to bring any relief to the current
severe/extreme drought over the area. Best chances, although on
the low side, continue to highlight inland SE GA.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 653 PM EST Mon Nov 17 2025

The 00Z TAF period will begin with VFR conditions across the area
through 06Z, but then lower to MVFR fog with restrictions for IFR
fog and LIFR/VLIFR ceilings at JAX, GNV, VQQ thereafter with MVFR
fog developing into CRG and SGJ after 09Z. High pressure to the
north will settle towards the eastern Carolinas overnight and allow
winds to become calm away from the coast with initially scattered
to broken high cirrus clouds exiting to the east southeast after
09Z, helping to promote radiational fog formation.

The fog will persist through 13-14Z at most locations, then lift
with VFR conditions thereafter. Northeasterly winds around 5 knots
will become easterly after 18Z with few clouds around 3.0-4.0 kft
moving from the Atlantic onto the coast as high pressure shifts to
east of the Outer Banks of NC.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 122 PM EST Mon Nov 17 2025

High pressure will build east-southeastward towards the Carolinas
this evening, with this feature wedging down the southeastern
seaboard through Tuesday. Onshore winds will briefly strengthen
this afternoon, followed by high pressure settling directly over
our local waters later tonight and Tuesday, allowing for lighter
onshore winds. Weakening high pressure will then shift offshore of
the southeastern seaboard on Wednesday and will remain in control
of our weather pattern through Saturday before another weakening
cold front enters the southeastern states. This front will likely
cross our local waters on Saturday night or Sunday, with a brief
period of breezy southwest to westerly winds expected this
weekend, with a few showers possible during the frontal passage.
Seas of 2 to 3 feet will prevail throughout our local waters
during the next several days.

Rip Currents...Breezy northeasterly winds will result in a lower
end moderate risk this afternoon at the northeast FL beaches. A
developing northeasterly ocean swell on Tuesday will create a
lower end moderate risk at all area beaches. Lighter winds and
flat surf conditions should yield a low risk at all area beaches
on Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 122 PM EST Mon Nov 17 2025

Dry air following the frontal passage will settle in over the
region, bringing minRH levels down into the upper teens and 20s
over inland southeast GA and inland portions of northeast FL
north of I-10. Winds will remain mostly mild and variable through
the day, resulting in lower mixing heights and poor daytime
dispersion values. Lower winds will keep the area just above
criteria for elevated fire danger. MinRH values will gradually
rise as the week progresses, however, poor/fair dispersions and
dry weather will persist through Friday.

&&

.CLIMATE...

Daily Record High Maximum Temperatures at local climate sites...

                          WED 11/19  THU 11/20  FRI 11/21  SAT 11/22

Jacksonville, FL (JAX)     84/1958    86/1988    84/1991    84/1973
Craig Exec Arpt  (CRG)     82/1984    86/1988    82/2004    81/1997
Gainesville, FL  (GNV)     90/1906    88/1906    86/1973    86/1906
Alma, Georgia    (AMG)     82/1942    83/1942    83/2011    83/2011

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  41  77  50  82 /   0   0   0   0
SSI  52  73  57  77 /   0   0   0   0
JAX  51  79  55  83 /   0   0   0   0
SGJ  58  78  58  80 /   0   0   0   0
GNV  49  82  54  84 /   0   0   0   0
OCF  50  81  55  82 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$