142
FXUS62 KJAX 031411
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
911 AM EST Wed Dec 3 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Patchy to Areas of Frost Across Inland Southeast GA Late Tonight

- Severe to Extreme Drought Continues for Inland Areas

- Potential for Locally Heavy Rainfall Across Southeast GA
  Friday and Saturday. Isolated Thunderstorms Possible Area-
  Wide.

- Moderate Rip Current Risk at All Area Beaches

&&

.UPDATE...

Mid-morning surface analysis depicts high pressure (1023
millibars) building over the lower Mississippi and Tennessee
Valleys in the wake of a cold front that was pushing across
south FL. Aloft...brisk zonal flow prevails locally, as our area
was between flat ridging positioned over Cuba and the Bahamas
and troughing that was digging southeastward from the Upper
Midwest. A cooler and drier air mass was advecting into our area
in the wake of last evening`s frontal passage, with the morning
sounding at Jacksonville revealing a stout 7 degrees Celsius
temperature inversion based around 900 millibars (around 3,500
feet), where a layer of broken stratocumulus clouds prevailed in
a cold air advection regime across our area. Temperatures at
14Z ranged from the mid 40s for locations north and west of
Waycross in interior southeast GA to the upper 50s across north
central FL. Dewpoints ranged from the upper 30s and lower 40s
across inland southeast GA to the mid 50s in north central FL.

High pressure building into the southeastern states this afternoon
will continue to advect a cooler and drier air mass into our region.
The seasonal low sun angle will result in moisture remaining trapped
around the aforementioned stout subsidence inversion until early
this afternoon, with stratocumulus cloud cover then dissipating
during the mid to late afternoon hours. Lingering cloud cover and
cold air advection will keep highs in the 50s across most of
southeast GA today, with 60s expected for northeast FL and upper 60s
/ near 70 for north central FL.

Brisk zonal flow aloft will continue tonight, advecting a veil of
mostly thin, high altitude cirrus across our skies. Winds will
decouple early this evening for inland locations as high pressure
settles over the southeastern states. Patchy to areas of frost
formation are expected for inland locations in southeast GA after
midnight, where lows will fall to the mid and upper 30s. Lows
elsewhere will fall to the upper 30s for inland locations along I-10
and 40s elsewhere, except around 50 along the northeast FL coast,
where a light north northwesterly breeze will continue overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

By Thursday, an area of low pressure near the Gulf Coast will begin
lifting a warm front across Florida. Moisture will gradually
increase from the southwest, most notably across north of I-10 will
700-400 mb WSW flow starts to prime the atmosphere. Skies will trend
from mostly sunny in the morning to mostly cloudy by afternoon
especially across SE Georgia and Suwannee Valley. Temperatures will
be slightly warmer than Wednesday, with highs in the mid 60s across
SE GA and the upper 60s to lower 70s across Northeast FL. Dry
conditions will persist most of the day, though a few light showers
or sprinkles may develop over the far interior SE GA during the
afternoon continuing into the nocturnal hours.

Thursday night, cloud cover will continue to increase as deep
moisture streams northward ahead of the approaching Gulf System.
Lows will be warmer, generally in mid 40s for inland SE GA and low
to mid 50s across NE FL. Northeast winds will remain around 5 to 10
mph. Shower chances will rise overnight, especially SE GA and the
Suwannee Valley where POPS range 25 to 45 percent, with likely POPS
near the Ocmulgee River Basin.

By Friday morning, the warm front will lift north toward I-10
corridor and is expected to reach near Waycross by early Friday
evening. This will bring increasing moisture and warmer
temperatures. Highs will reach the mid 70s to near 80 degrees across
much of NE and N Central FL, while SE GA will see mid 60s to lower
70s. Showers will embedded thunderstorms will become more
widespread, especially during the afternoon and evening hours, with
highest coverage across SE GA, the Suwannee Valley, and areas north
of I-10. The WPC Excessive Rainfall Outlook indicates a Marginal
Risk of excessive rainfall across of SE GA. The cold front will
press and then push through SE GA late Friday morning and stall near
the I-10 corridor by daybreak Saturday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

The cold front will finally push south of the area by late Saturday
night into Sunday morning as the associated low lifts northeastward.
Scattered to numerous showers and storms are expected through
Saturday afternoon and evening. Rain chances will gradually decrease
Saturday night, though scattered showers are anticipated into
Sunday. With southwesterly flow aloft ahead of the front on
Saturday, deep Gulf moisture transport will support periods of heavy
rainfall with some guidance suggesting 2 to 4 inches across portions
of Southeast Georgia. The marginal risk for excessive rainfall
shifts southward Saturday to include most of SE GA and NE FL as the
front progresses through the region.

From Sunday night through Tuesday, a drier and colder airmass will
settle over the area under building high pressure. Temperatures will
fall below normal for early December, with highs in the lower to mid
60s and overnight lows in the mid 30s to mid 40s. Guidance also
suggest another, albeit drier, reinforcing front boundary Monday,
supporting cool and dry conditions with good model agreement.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...

MVFR ceilings of 1,500 - 3,000 feet will prevail at the regional
terminals this morning through early this afternoon, with ceilings
then lifting to VFR by 18Z at the Duval County terminals and SSI and
by 20Z at GNV and SGJ. Periods of MVFR visibilities may develop
after 06Z Thursday at VQQ, but confidence was currently too low to
include in the 12Z TAFs. Northerly surface winds will increase to 5-
10 knots at the regional terminals by 15Z, followed by winds
shifting to northwesterly after 16Z. Northwest to northerly surface
winds sustained at 5 knots or less will then prevail after 23Z.

&&

.MARINE...

High pressure will build over the southeastern states this
afternoon in the wake of a cold front that will stall across
south Florida tonight. Low pressure will then organize along the
northern Gulf coast on Thursday night, with a warm front
lifting northward across our local waters on Friday, accompanied
by an increasing coverage of showers. Weak low pressure will
then move northeastward across southeastern Georgia on Friday
evening, with this storm system`s cold front then crossing our
local waters on Friday night and Saturday morning. A wave of low
pressure will then develop along this front just south of the
northeast Florida waters on Saturday night, keeping showers and
a few embedded thunderstorms over our local waters through
Sunday. Low pressure will then strengthen as it moves offshore
on Sunday night and Monday, resulting in strengthening north
northwesterly winds as rainfall ends.

Rip Currents: SE GA Moderate Thursday
              NE FL Moderate Thursday

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Light northwest winds become established later this afternoon,
with Poor to Fair dispersions developing on Wednesday, becoming
Poor by Thursday. The next round of showers and storms expected
Thursday evening into the upcoming weekend as an area of low
pressure will lift northeast out of the Gulf late in the week,
bringing another cold front to push across the area during the
upcoming weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  34  58  45  60 /   0  30  50  70
SSI  43  63  52  68 /   0  10  30  40
JAX  42  68  51  77 /   0  10  20  30
SGJ  50  69  56  78 /   0   0  10  10
GNV  44  71  53  79 /   0   0  10  20
OCF  47  73  54  80 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$