142
FXUS62 KJAX 100741
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
241 AM EST Mon Nov 10 2025

...New SYNOPSIS, NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, CLIMATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Red Flag Warning on Monday for the Suwannee Valley and Portions
  of Northeast and Inland North Central FL. Elevated Fire Danger
  Expected Elsewhere and also Area-Wide on Tuesday.

- Freeze Warning for Southeast GA and for Locations West of the
  St. Johns River in Northeast and North Central FL Late Monday
  Night through Early Tuesday Morning. Widespread Frost and
  Freezing Temperatures Likely Late Tuesday Night and Early
  Wednesday Morning.

- Wind Chill Values Fall to 20-25 Degrees Late Monday Night and
  Early Tuesday Morning. Cold Weather Advisories in Effect for
  Most of Our Area.

- Small Craft Advisories through Late Monday Afternoon. Gale
  Warning in Effect from Late Monday Afternoon through Early
  Tuesday Morning.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 240 AM EST Mon Nov 10 2025

Overnight surface analysis depicts a strong cold front moving
across north central and coastal northeast FL and extending
northward along the U.S. eastern seaboard. Meanwhile, arctic high
pressure (1038 millibars) was building southward from the northern
Plains states and Upper Midwest. Aloft...a potent shortwave trough
pivoting across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley continues to carve
out a deep longwave trough over the eastern two-thirds of the
nation. Widely scattered showers located along the cold front were
moving across north central FL and southern portions of the St.
Johns River basin, with stratocumulus clouds in the immediate wake
of the frontal passage exiting coastal southeast GA and lingering
along the I-95 corridor in northeast FL and the I-75 corridor in
north central FL. Skies were otherwise clearing quickly from
northwest to southeast in the wake of the frontal passage, with
cold air advection dropping temperatures into the upper 40s for
locations north and west of Waycross in southeast GA, where
dewpoints were plunging through the 30s. Temperatures and
dewpoints remain in the 60s for portions of coastal northeast FL
and north central FL along and just ahead of the cold front at
07Z.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 240 AM EST Mon Nov 10 2025

Potent shortwave troughing will dig southeastward from the Ohio
Valley this morning and across the southern Appalachians this
afternoon, with this feature then pivoting eastward towards the
coastal Carolina region tonight. Troughing aloft will continue to
deepen to the south of this feature over our region today,
ushering in an unseasonably cold and exceptionally dry air mass.
Breezy northwesterly winds will drop temperatures into the 40s
for most locations by sunrise, with a few upper 30s possible for
locations north of Waycross in southeast GA. Low temperatures
may only fall to the lower 50s for portions of north central and
coastal northeast FL. Gusty northwesterly winds will drop wind
chill values into the 30s by sunrise for locations along and north
of the Interstate 10 corridor, with 40s expected elsewhere by
early Tuesday morning.

Despite full sunshine, gusty northwesterly winds and strong cold
air advection will keep highs in the 50-55 range today for
southeast GA and northern portions of the Suwannee Valley and
55-60 elsewhere. Winds will frequently gust to 20-30 mph through
mid-afternoon before lulling slightly later this afternoon inland.
Dewpoints will crash to near daily record lows this afternoon,
with teens expected for inland southeast GA and northern portions
of the Suwannee Valley and 20s extending all the way to coastal
locations and most of north central FL, which is an indicator of
the arctic origin of this air mass that will be advecting into our
area today and tonight.

The axis of the longwave trough over the eastern U.S. will pivot
through our region tonight, with arctic surface high pressure
only gradually weakening as it pivots eastward from the Southern
Plains and across the lower Mississippi Valley. A tight local
pressure gradient will remain in place, keeping breezy
northwesterly winds in place through the night inland and windy
conditions ongoing at coastal locations, where speeds will likely
remain in the 15-25 mph range overnight, with occasional gusts
around 35 mph possible through the predawn hours. Our local
pressure gradient will begin to loosen at inland locations towards
sunrise, but speeds will likely remain high enough to drop wind
chill values to around the threshold for Cold Weather Advisory (20
degrees) for southeast GA, especially away from the immediate
coast. Cold Weather Advisory criteria (25 degrees or lower) will
otherwise be met for all of northeast and north central FL by the
predawn hours on Tuesday. Surface temperatures will fall below
freezing just after midnight for inland southeast GA and during
the predawn hours for coastal southeast GA and for locations
immediately west of the banks of the St. Johns River in northeast
and north central FL. Breezy surface winds will likely keep lows
in the upper 30s for inland locations along and north of I-10,
with lower 30s elsewhere, except mid 30s for coastal northeast FL
and for metro areas such as downtown Jacksonville. Enough wind
will continue into the early morning hours on Tuesday to prevent
significant frost formation.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday through Wednesday night)
Issued at 240 AM EST Mon Nov 10 2025

Tuesday, axis of the deep upper trough will shift east northeast
off the Mid Atlantic/New England coastline with ridging aloft in
it`s wake settling east of the lower and mid MS river valley while
a shortwave impulse races from the plains to the OH valley. Brisk
northwesterly winds 10-15 mph and westerly flow aloft will provide
strong cold air advection through the day with highs about 15-20
degrees below normal in the low 50s over SE GA and the mid 50s over
NE FL. These values will be near or exceed daily record low maximum
values (see climate section for details).

Tuesday Night, clear skies and near calm winds underneath strong
surface high pressure near 1028 mb will support strong radiational
cooling overnight that will lead to another freeze for most of NE
FL west of US17 and just west of downtown Jacksonville with lows
moderating to the low 30s from the St Johns river to the immediate
SE GA coast and areas along east of I-95 in NE FL. The dewpoints
will recover into the 20s compared to the teens from Monday night
and Tuesday with enough low level moisture providing for widespread
frost event inland with patchy to areas of frost along I-95 north
of downtown and the Ocala National Forest while staying generally
frost free along the coast.

Wednesday, high pressure will slowly weaken with the high`s center
settling southward into the NE Gulf waters and into north central
FL. Light westerly winds 5-10 mph over NE FL will become more west
southwest into SE GA under sunny skies as the atmosphere remains
too dry for clouds. Highs will rebound under the sunshine and rising
heights into the upper 60s, creating much more comfortable temps
compared to Tuesday, but still around 5-8 degrees below normal.

Wednesday night, with cold air advection ceasing amid zonal flow
aloft and high pressure weakening across southern portions of the
area, radiational cooling will not be as strong. Lows will fall below
normal about 10-15 degrees below normal inland to the upper 30s to
low 40s, but moderate along the coast to the 45-50 degree range,
only about 5-10 degrees below normal.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 240 AM EST Mon Nov 10 2025

Thursday, a dry cold front will press south through the area with
winds turning northwest but remaining light under sunny skies as
another high pressure center builds in from the north through
Friday with dry conditions continuing. However moisture levels
will recover to near normal levels around 1.00 inch.

This weekend, the high will shift slowly into the western Atlantic
waters off the eastern seaboard with winds shifting easterly on
Saturday. Sunday, a developing shortwave trough over the southern
MS valley will develop a surface low pressure center that will
shift rainfall into the deep south later in the day. Isolated to
scattered showers will slide into the western half of the area
with southerly winds increasing ahead of the system as the high
moves away to the east. Rainfall amounts at this time are not
settled due to timing and placement differences in the global
models with this system.

Temperatures will begin near normal Thursday into Friday and warm
to slightly above normal this weekend while lows begin a little
below normal Friday and Saturday morning before rising to near to
above normal Sunday and Monday mornings.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 106 AM EST Mon Nov 10 2025

MVFR ceilings will prevail at SGJ through around 07Z, with a brief
shower possible. VFR conditions will then prevail area-wide by
08Z. Northwesterly surface winds will develop by 08Z at the
regional terminals, with speeds increasing to around 15 knots,
with frequent 20-25 knots gusts expected after 13Z. Surface winds
may shift slightly to west-northwesterly after 17Z, with speeds
decreasing to 10-15 knots at the inland terminals by 22Z. Speeds
will remain sustained around 15 knots and gusty at the SSI and
SGJ coastal terminals on Monday night.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 240 AM EST Mon Nov 10 2025

A strong cold front is crossing our local waters overnight, with
winds abruptly shifting to northwesterly and increasing to Small
Craft Advisory levels of 20-25 knots currently. Occasional Gale
Force wind gusts will be possible during the predawn and morning
hours on Monday. Strong high pressure building into the
southeastern states on Monday will result in frequent Gale Force
wind gusts from late Monday afternoon through around sunrise
throughout our local waters, and Gale Warnings have been issued.
Seas will build to 3-5 feet near shore today and to Small Craft
Advisory levels of 5-8 feet offshore. Seas will reach Small Craft
Advisory levels for the near shore waters adjacent to northeast FL
tonight, peaking in the 5-7 foot range during the predawn and
morning hours on Tuesday. Seas offshore will peak in the 7-11 foot
range later tonight and early Tuesday morning.


High pressure will shift eastward on Tuesday, with strong
northwesterly winds on Tuesday morning gradually diminishing
during the afternoon hours. Winds and seas will subside below
Small Craft Advisory levels for the Georgia waters and the near
shore waters adjacent to northeast FL by early Tuesday afternoon,
with winds and seas falling below Small Craft Advisory levels for
the offshore waters adjacent to northeast FL towards sunset on
Tuesday evening. High pressure will then become centered directly
over our local waters by late Tuesday night and Wednesday,
allowing for a rapid decrease in speeds and seas. High pressure
will then shift southward over the Florida peninsula on Thursday
ahead of a weakening dry frontal boundary that will push southward
across our area on Thursday afternoon and evening, with breezy
westerly winds possible for the offshore waters.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 240 AM EST Mon Nov 10 2025

High pressure building in from the northwest will deliver a very
dry airmass with unseasonably cold temperatures arriving this evening
through Tuesday night/early Wednesday morning. Brisk northwest winds
10-15 mph will pick up after by mid morning to 15-25 mph gusting to
30-35 mph and coupled with dewpoints crashing into the 20s/teens
will lower MinRH values below critical levels. A Red Flag Warning
will go into effect late this morning into this afternoon for our
inland Northeast FL areas north where Min RH values fall to the
mid 20s and significant fire weather potential is heightened. In
addition, breezy surface and transport winds will also yield high
daytime dispersions today.

High Pressure will then shift over the region by Tuesday and after
a chilly start, afternoon MinRH values will fall below critical
levels into the low to mid 20s, then repeating again Wednesday
afternoon as high pressure slowly weakens over the region, but
light winds should remove potential for a Fire Weather Watch. The
high will settle south of the area early Thursday as a dry cold
front moves in from the north with a brief increase in transport
winds helping bring good to high level dispersions over the area
as high pressure rebuilds north of the area. Moisture levels will
recover above critical levels Thursday through the weekend with a
return of scattered showers by Sunday as another storm system moves
in from the west.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 240 AM EST Mon Nov 10 2025

Record low maximum temperatures for Tuesday:

KJAX: 53/1917
KCRG: 59/1996
KGNV: 55/1953
KAMG: 53/1968

Record low temperatures on Tuesday and Wednesday:

November 11:
KJAX: 35/1977
KCRG: 37/1991
KGNV: 31/1943
KAMG: 27/1943

November 12:
KJAX: 31/2011
KCRG: 35/2011
KGNV: 30/2011
KAMG: 27/2011

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  52  28  52  28 /   0   0   0   0
SSI  55  32  53  36 /   0   0   0   0
JAX  58  30  55  31 /   0   0   0   0
SGJ  60  36  55  38 /   0   0   0   0
GNV  59  31  56  31 /   0   0   0   0
OCF  60  31  56  32 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Red Flag Warning from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM EST this
     evening for FLZ021-023-024-030-031-035-120-124-125-132-136-
     137-220-225-232-236-237-322-325-422-425-522.

     Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 8 AM EST Tuesday for
     FLZ021-023-024-030-031-035-120-124-132-136-137-140-220-225-
     232-236-237-240-322-340-422-425-522.

     Cold Weather Advisory from 2 AM to 8 AM EST Tuesday for FLZ021-
     023-024-030-031-035-038-120-124-125-132-136>138-140-220-225-
     232-233-236-237-240-322-325-333-340-422-425-433-522-533-633.

GA...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 8 AM EST Tuesday for
     GAZ132>136-149-151>154-162-163-165-166-250-264-350-364.

     Cold Weather Advisory from 2 AM to 8 AM EST Tuesday for
     GAZ132>136-149-151>153-162-163-165-250-264-350-364.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for AMZ450-
     452-454-470-472-474.

     Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM to 10 AM EST Tuesday for AMZ450.

     Gale Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 6 AM EST Tuesday for
     AMZ450-452-454-470-472-474.

     Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM to 1 PM EST Tuesday for AMZ452-
     454.

     Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM to noon EST Tuesday for AMZ470.

     Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM to 5 PM EST Tuesday for AMZ472-
     474.

&&

$$