182
FXUS62 KJAX 282315
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
715 PM EDT Sun Sep 28 2025

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Tropical Storm Imelda Local Impacts Late Tonight into Next Week.
  High Risk of Rip Currents through Tuesday. Small Craft Advisory
  through Wednesday Night. Minor beach erosion and minor tidal
  flooding. Monitor forecasts at hurricanes.gov

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 714 PM EDT Sun Sep 28 2025

Showers with a few embedded thunderstorms will continue to move
onshore through the night as strong northeasterly winds persist as
a front moves through the area tonight. Due to the elevated winds,
fog is unlikely to develop as it has for the past few early
mornings. With high cloud cover tonight, low temperatures will be
fairly mild in the lower to mid 70s.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
Issued at 209 PM EDT Sun Sep 28 2025

A northeast to southwest frontal boundary will be stalled along the
NE FL coast this afternoon and evening. The boundary will move to
the southeast of the area overnight, as northward moving tropical
system tracks east of southern FL. The boundary will continue to
focus shower chances over mainly eastern counties, with a few
thunderstorms possible. With the expected cloud coverage,
Tonight`s lows will trend above normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday through Tuesday night)
Issued at 209 PM EDT Sun Sep 28 2025

Elevated winds over the local waters as Tropical Storm Imelda is
expected to begin a shift northeast and then east away from the
SE CONUS after passing across the Bahamas late Monday into
Tuesday. Tropical Storm Watches remain in effect across the local
waters beginning Monday morning. With elevated winds over the
waters, coastal and beach hazards are expected through the day on
Monday and into Tuesday, with High risk for life-threatening rip
currents and High surf likely with larger waves further offshore.
Additionally showers from the outer bands of the tropical system
will look to push along coastal locations and some activity
possibly making their way towards inland locations past the I-95
corridor.

Tuesday, Hazards along the local waters and coastal locations will
continue as winds will remain elevated as Tropical Storm Imelda
will be moving away from the coast and the reinforced ridge over
the area will persist breezy conditions. Drier air filtering into
the area from the north-northwest will work to limit the chances
of precipitation along inland locations, but coastal locations
will likely still see some showers and occasional thunderstorms
with the north-northeasterly flow along the coast.

Monday/Tuesday...Daytime highs in the 80s, upper 80s for inland
locations of NE FL. Overnight Lows in upper 60s over SE GA and
Suwannee Valley region, with the remainder of locations in the
lower 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 209 PM EDT Sun Sep 28 2025

Drier air will continue to settle into the region midweek as
Tropical Storm Imelda continues to move away from the CONUS.
Scattered chances of showers and isolated storms along the coast
as north-northeasterly onshore flow will continue to bring in
moisture from the Atlantic through the remainder of the week. With
the continuing northeasterly onshore flow, we could still see
impacts to the coast and local waters during the later half of the
upcoming week. Temperature highs will trend down to the upper 70s
and lower 80s by midweek, but begin to tick upward by the weekend
with most locations in the 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 714 PM EDT Sun Sep 28 2025

Showers with a few embedded thunderstorms will continue to move
onshore through the TAF period as northeasterly winds persist
through the night. While fog development is unlikely pre-dawn,
showers will lower visibility periodically through the TAF period,
with MVFR to IFR ceilings bouncing around as well. Difficult to
pick out timing for heavier showers, but there are a few TEMPO
groups in there for highest precipitation chances lowering
visibility further. Monday after daybreak will be breezy, with
gusts near 20-25 knots.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 209 PM EDT Sun Sep 28 2025

A frontal zone will be located across the waters through Tonight
into Monday. Northward moving Tropical Storm Imelda will be east
of Cape Canaveral Monday evening. The depression will then begin
to track to the northeast, then east Tuesday into Tuesday night.
Elevated winds and seas are expected as the system passes by.

Interests should continue to monitor the latest forecasts from the
National Hurricane Center.

High pressure will strengthen to the north northeast later in the
week, leading to a period of elevated conditions in what will become
a persistent onshore flow.

Rip currents: Increasing onshore flow and building surf will lead
to higher rip current risk today and continuing into next week as
surf continues to build. There is a good chance of high surf for
area beaches sometime on Monday which will likely continue into at
least mid week. Surf builds up to the 7-10 ft range and could be
higher in some spots. Peak wave heights generally occur in the
Monday night through Tuesday evening time frame.

&&

.HYDROLOGY/COASTAL FLOODING POTENTIAL...
Issued at 225 AM EDT Sun Sep 28 2025

Mostly a marginal risk of excessive rainfall for the coastal areas
through Tuesday. Highest rainfall amounts of 1-3 inches are
possible for the coast with locally higher of about 4 inches.

Coastal flooding potential: Coastal water levels will be rising
Monday through Wednesday. PETSS mean water level guidance
generically shows only minor tidal flooding concerns while
localized spots could see slightly higher potential. Current
forecasts show up to about 2 ft MHHW at the coast and 1-2 ft MHHW
for the St Johns River Basin and Intracoastal Waterway.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  69  82  67  82 /  20  60  10  20
SSI  73  81  71  80 /  60  70  60  50
JAX  72  84  71  83 /  50  70  40  50
SGJ  73  84  72  82 /  70  70  60  60
GNV  70  87  70  86 /  30  50  10  20
OCF  72  87  72  86 /  20  40  10  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday evening for FLZ124-125-
     138-233-333.

GA...High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday evening for GAZ154-166.

AM...Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM Monday to 4 AM EDT Thursday for
     AMZ450-452-454-470-472-474.

&&

$$