552
FXUS62 KJAX 171156
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
656 AM EST Mon Nov 17 2025

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 656 AM EST Mon Nov 17 2025

Lingering radiation fog at VQQ should dissipate before 13Z.
Otherwise, VFR conditions will otherwise prevail at the regional
terminals through at least 06Z Tuesday. Fog and low stratus
ceilings will likely create LIFR conditions after 06Z at VQQ.
Northerly surface winds of 5-10 knots will prevail at SSI through
around 15Z, with winds shifting to northeasterly around 10 knots
towards 16Z. Otherwise, light northwesterly surface winds early
this morning at the northeast FL terminals will shift to northerly
by 15Z, with speeds increasing to 5-10 knots by 16Z. Surface winds
will then shift to northeasterly around 10 knots at the northeast
FL terminals by 19Z. Surface winds will diminish towards 01Z
Tuesday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Locally Dense Fog early this morning along portions of I-75 in
  North Central FL

- Moderate Rip Current Risk at the Northeast FL Beaches

- Near-Elevated Fire Weather Conditions in Southeast GA. Low
  Humidity and Critically Dry Fuels. Be very cautious with outdoor
  flames, check for local burning bans

- Extended Dry Spell this Week. Severe to Extreme Drought Inland
  Southeast GA & Northern Suwannee Valley

&&

.NEAR TERM...(Today and Tonight)...

A slowing cold front is pushing through southern GA and will
continue to sink southward through the NE FL during the rest of the
morning. Like last night, the primary weather challenge will be
areas of dense fog development during the predawn hours. Moisture
pooling ahead of the front will lead to patchy fog development for
areas south of I-10 this morning with dense fog potential highest
(40-60%) across Marion, Alachua, and Putnam counties. This will
likely will require a Dense Fog Advisory for those areas later on in
the morning.

Much drier air will filter in behind the front today, pushing
humidity to low levels across SE GA and elevating wildfire danger
(more in the fire weather section below). That dry air will also
lead to mostly sunny skies today and clear skies tonight as high
pressure settles just to the north. Light onshore winds will keep
the coast cooler today and warmer tonight. Lows at the coast will be
in the upper 50s to near 60 degrees while inland lows will feel the
chill behind the frontal passage with readings in the low/mid 40s
common from the Suwannee Valley northward into SE GA, possibly even
touching the upper 30s again. Drier air should limit much in the way
of fog formation early Tuesday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tuesday through Wednesday night)

High pressure ridging from out of the west will build in on
Tuesday and Wednesday over the region resulting in a continuation
of dry weather conditions with mostly clear skies and mild winds.
Potential for overnight and early morning fog developments through
the period. High temperatures will be within the upper 70s and
lower 80s through midweek with overnight low temperatures ranging
between the lower to mid 50s for inland areas and in the lower 60s
along the coastline.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)

Dry weather conditions will continue through the end of the week
with a potential for showers on Saturday, primarily over inland
southeast Georgia, as high pressure formerly building over the
region moves off to the south and east establishing a more
southwesterly flow ahead of an advancing frontal boundary pressing
into the forecast area from out of the northwest. Temperatures
will remain above the seasonal average, nearing daily record
highs, for the end of the week and through the weekend.

&&

.MARINE...

Winds will turn onshore and trend lighter today leading to fair
maritime conditions under the influence of high pressure which will
continue throughout the week. A southerly wind shift followed by a
shift to offshore flow will take place later this week as the high
pressure ridge axis moves south and cold front begins to sharpen
well to the west. The southerly flow will push warm, moist air
across the waters which may lead to patchy marine fog in the
nearshore waters to end the week. The aforementioned sharpening
front may move through the waters as early as Sunday morning but
more likely to pass next Monday.

RIP CURRENTS: Though winds will trend onshore, elevating risk, low
surf heights will keep risk toward low-end of Moderate today and
Tuesday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Dry air following the frontal passage will settle in over the
region bringing minRH levels down into the 20s and lower over
inland southeast Georgia and inland portions of northeast Florida
north of I-10. Winds will remain mostly mild and variable through
the day resulting in lower mixing heights and poor daytime
dispersion values. Conditions will be borderline today for
elevated fire danger, especially for areas near and north of
Waycross, however the low wind speeds will hold the product off
from being issued. MinRH values will rise as the week progresses,
however dry weather will persist through Friday.

&&

.CLIMATE...

Daily Record High Maximum Temperatures at local climate sites...

                          WED 11/19  THU 11/20  FRI 11/21  SAT 11/22

Jacksonville, FL (JAX)     84/1958    86/1988    84/1991    84/1973
Craig Exec Arpt  (CRG)     82/1984    86/1988    82/2004    81/1997
Gainesville, FL  (GNV)     90/1906    88/1906    86/1973    86/1906
Alma, Georgia    (AMG)     82/1942    83/1942    83/2011    83/2011

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  74  39  79  49 /   0   0   0   0
SSI  69  57  73  57 /   0   0   0   0
JAX  76  49  79  54 /   0   0   0   0
SGJ  75  60  78  58 /   0   0   0   0
GNV  81  49  83  54 /   0   0   0   0
OCF  80  51  82  55 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$