


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
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536 FXUS62 KJAX 042337 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 737 PM EDT Thu Sep 4 2025 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 729 PM EDT Thu Sep 4 2025 Forecast remains on track through tonight and into Friday morning. No major updates are required at this time. && .NEAR TERM... (Today through Tonight) Issued at 155 PM EDT Thu Sep 4 2025 For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf Unseasonably dry weather remains in place today, with only isolated to widely scattered showers and perhaps a thunderstorm developing over north central Florida and Flagler county this afternoon and evening. Tonight, calm winds and clear skies will allow for some patchy fog formation pre-dawn over inland locations. Low temperatures will dip into the mid to upper 60s over inland southeast Georgia, and low 70s elsewhere. && .SHORT TERM... (Friday through Saturday night) Issued at 155 PM EDT Thu Sep 4 2025 Weak high pressure ridge will remain over the forecast region on Friday with some subtle moisture advection coming up from the south that could support a few showers or a storm over north central FL. Based on latest NBM and CAM models, made some slight adjustment downward to the POPs. Should be mostly dry again Friday night with some patchy fog possible inland areas with lows in the mid 60s to lower 70s. Mid 70s possible at the coast. Saturday, we begin to see larger changes as deeper moisture existing over south and central FL begins to shift northward as deep layer mean flow transitions from easterly on Friday to southerly on Saturday. PWATS rise to about 2 inches over the southern most zones on Saturday. This combined with daytime heating and sea breezes may kick off scattered showers and storms in the afternoon. Quite more limited chances toward I-10 at 20 percent, and then silent POPs for southeast GA. Model guidance shows plenty of sun and increased 1000-500 mb thickness this period. This again suggests warm temps once again in the lower 90s inland and upper 80s at the coast. Heat indices expected to be in the upper 90s to lower 100s. Lows will trend upward a bit to the upper 60s and then mostly lower 70s as we begin to see more moisture and additional clouds on Saturday and Saturday night. Patchy fog is included for Saturday morning mainly inland areas due to light winds and adequate sfc moisture. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through next Thursday) Issued at 155 PM EDT Thu Sep 4 2025 Another unseasonable cool front will be dropping into the northern zones on Sunday and Sunday afternoon which could spark some weak convection, while some lingering in moisture continues across the southern most zones and also were a weak boundary is evident in guidance, oriented west-east. Overall, most areas stay dry but best chances of any rain will likely be over northeast FL, but even so only about 30-40 percent at this time for mainly afternoon showers or storms. From Sunday night into early next week, the cool front moves into the region as moderate high pressure system takes hold over the Ohio Valley area at about 1028 mb. The pressure gradient between the high and broad low pressure troughing over the FL peninsula will result in increasing northeasterly low level flow, ushering in a moist maritime airmass into the forecast area for the beginning of next week. This should set us up with another nor`easter once again. The surge and duration of the event looks quite similar to the last few days. Anticipate unsettled, gloomy and cooler conditions as stratocumulus and convergent bands of showers push into the coast. Flood rain risk initially should be low given the several days of preceding dry conditions. Key messages are higher surf, dangerous and frequent rip currents, beach erosion, and possibly minor coastal flooding, and given that the full moon on 9/7 elevates the tide levels already. In addition, local heavy rainfall is probable for the coastal northeast FL area from Nassau county to Flagler county, but possibly including portion of Clay and Putnam counties. Chances of rainfall greater than 2 inches is about 30-40 percent at this time starting on Monday. Temps will trend down to the 80s most areas and lows in the mid to upper 60s well inland over southeast GA, and lower to mid 70s elsewhere. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 729 PM EDT Thu Sep 4 2025 VFR conditions will continue through the forecast period with winds becoming more mild overnight and then rebuilding from out of the NE-E on Thursday. Chances for early morning mist to be reported by VQQ and GNV in the early morning hours. && .MARINE... Issued at 155 PM EDT Thu Sep 4 2025 A frontal boundary currently stalled near the Florida Keys will lift slowly northward through the Florida peninsula on Thursday and Friday, with another weak low pressure center developing along this front east of Cape Canaveral. This feature will likely maintain generally light onshore winds across our local waters through the weekend. A frontal boundary will then approach our region from the northwest on Sunday, with this front then stalling across our local waters on Monday, bringing increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms. Onshore winds will increase and seas will build early next week as strong high pressure building over New England wedges down the southeastern seaboard. Rip currents: Moderate rip current risk at the northeast Florida and southeast Georgia beaches through the weekend, with a high risk possible early next week as onshore winds strengthen. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 159 AM EDT Thu Sep 4 2025 On the hydro side, northeasterly wind surge will trap tidewater in the upper St Johns River potentially elevating high tide south of Jacksonville. Overall, levels look to be coming down as the northeast flow weakens and rainfall is very limited now with max values of about 1.4 to 1.5 ft MHHW and are at just a couple of sites. Astronomical influence is fairly limited before the full moon on Sunday Sept 7th. But the upcoming full moon in concert with the onshore flow and expected rainfall next week will probably result in elevated water levels both along the coast and within the St Johns River Basin. This could start as early as Monday but more likely on Tue-Thu. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 66 92 68 92 / 0 0 0 10 SSI 73 87 74 87 / 0 0 0 10 JAX 71 91 72 92 / 0 0 0 20 SGJ 75 89 76 89 / 0 10 10 30 GNV 69 94 71 94 / 0 10 0 30 OCF 72 92 73 92 / 10 20 10 40 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 AM EDT Saturday for FLZ038-132- 137-633. GA...None. AM...None. && $$