205
FXUS62 KJAX 152341
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
641 PM EST Mon Dec 15 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Freeze Warning & Frost Tonight into early Tue Morning. Hard Freeze
across Inland Southeast GA. Light Freeze Coastal Southeast GA,
Suwannee Valley & Inland Northeast FL. Widespread to Areas of Inland
Frost

- Coastal Hazards Today - High Surf & High Risk for Rip Currents

- Small Craft Advisory through Tonight

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...

Cold, dry air advection is ongoing early this morning across the
entirety of the area as a cold front continues to push south of the
region. Winds have overall been slightly lower than guidance,
especially over land though expecting more of a surge over the next
several hours closer to the coast as winds here turn more north to
north/northeasterly. Wind advisory remains in effect for coastal
northeast FL for this same reason, as expecting gusts around 40mph
to become more frequent after about within the few hours and
continue through about mid morning. Further north and west of the
coast and St. Johns River, northwest to northerly breezes around 10-
15 mph will be expected through the same time frame with gusts to
around 25-30 mph at times. Have bumped up low temps just a few
degrees based on latest trends, though still expecting widespread
20s and low 30s over southeast GA and north and west of about HWY
301 in northeast FL, with 40s more common south and east closer to
the St. Johns River. Freeze Warning remains in effect for most areas
of the interior as well as a Cold Weather Advisory with wind chills
under 25 degrees expected. Although a more areas within the Freeze
Warning may not reach a freeze criteria (like parts of Alachua,
Bradford, and Clay Counties), dangerously cold wind chills are still
very much expected.

For the rest of Monday, it will be a cold and dry one as arctic high
pressure ridging starts to settle. A coastal trough developing
overnight and during the morning hours will keep more clouds in the
forecast for eastern areas and especially eastern areas over
northeast FL through tonight and especially this evening, also
helping to keep a stronger gradient in both wind speeds and dew
points accordingly with a northeasterly onshore flow around 10-20
mph with gusts up to 25-30 mph. Rip current risk will be high at
area beaches today with the breezy onshore flow and rough wave
heights. The further north and west you go into interior GA closer
to the high pressure center, much drier and lighter winds as dew
points have the potential to drop below zero north and west of about
Waycross. Temperatures in the 40s will be common north of about I-
10, and 50s to near 60 the further south of about I-10 you go.

Cloud cover coverage is expected to drop off a bit for eastern areas
tonight, though a few low clouds will linger across much of the area
with a cold night expected for most. Low temperatures tonight are a
bit tricky, especially closer to the coast and St. Johns River Basin
as it will depend on how strong the northeasterly flow stays
overnight. The further inland you go, mostly prime radiational
cooling conditions are expected with very light to calm winds, a
very dry airmass, and only a few clouds. Temps in the low 20s will
be common over interior GA, with upper 20s to low 30s over the upper
Suwannee Valley and west of the St. Johns River. Expecting the cut
off to be very sharp close to the St. Johns River and areas south
and east as forecast lows will quickly jump into the 40s south and
east of about HWY 301 in Florida.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

Troughing aloft will shift offshore on Tuesday, with dry
northwesterly flow continuing across the southeastern states. This
flow will turn more zonal by Tuesday night, followed by west-
southwesterly flow developing on Wednesday as ridging aloft over the
Caribbean builds towards the FL peninsula. Meanwhile, Arctic high
pressure will continue to weaken as it settles over the southeastern
states on Tuesday, with this feature shifting offshore by Wednesday
morning. Otherwise, a dry air mass and plenty of sunshine at inland
locations  will allow for a gradual moderation of temperatures,
while a persistent coastal trough over the Atlantic waters adjacent
to east central and northeast FL continues to funnel marine
stratocumulus over coastal locations from St. Augustine southward,
with these clouds extending into southern portions of the St. Johns
River basin and north central FL as well. Highs will climb to the
upper 50s on Tuesday afternoon for locations north of Waycross and
for coastal locations from Fernandina Beach northward, with 60s
elsewhere, except around 70 in north central FL.

Radiational cooling on Tuesday night will drop lows down to the mid
30s across inland portions of southeast GA, where areas of frost
formation are likely. Lows elsewhere at inland locations will range
from the upper 30s to the mid 40s, with patchy fog formation
possible across inland portions of northeast and north central FL
during the predawn and early morning hours. A light northerly breeze
and marine stratocumulus will keep coastal lows in the upper 40s and
lower 50s. Multi-layered cloudiness will overspread our area on
Wednesday as low level flow veers, driving marine stratocumulus
onshore and inland by the afternoon hours, while shortwave energy
embedded in the developing west-southwesterly flow pattern aloft
results in increasing higher altitude cloud cover. Warm air
advection will counter this increasing cloud cover, allowing highs
to rebound to the mid to upper 60s across southeast GA and coastal
northeast FL, while inland areas of northeast and north central FL
reach the 70-75 degree range. Warm air advection will allow lows to
continue to modify, with mid to upper 40s for inland southeast GA
and northern portions of the Suwannee Valley, ranging to the 50s
elsewhere. Patchy fog and low stratus cloud formation will be
possible towards sunrise on Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

Troughing will dive southeastward from the northern Rockies on
Wednesday night though the Plains states and Upper Midwest on
Thursday. This trough will then pivot eastward across the Great
Lakes region and the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys on Thursday and
Thursday night. This trough will drive a weakening cold front into
the southeastern states on Thursday night, allowing southwesterly
flow to deepen over our region. PWAT values will increase to around
1.5 inches across our area by Thursday afternoon and evening, likely
allowing for a few showers to develop across our region from late
Thursday afternoon through Thursday night, with widely scattered
coverage possible for locations north of Waycross ahead of the
approaching frontal boundary on Thursday night. The bigger story
will be the continued rise in temperatures, as highs climb into the
70s at most locations on Thursday afternoon, except upper 60s for
coastal southeast GA. Lows on Thursday night will remain in the 50s
area-wide.

Troughing aloft will take on a more negative tilt late this week as
it swings through New England, with this feature pushing a weakening
cold front across our area later on Thursday night and Friday. High
pressure building over the southern Plains and Texas in the wake of
this frontal passage on Thursday night will expand across the lower
Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys on Friday, reaching the southern
Appalachians and the Ohio Valley by Friday evening. A drier air mass
will overspread our region on Friday and Saturday in the wake of
this frontal passage, with cool air advection dropping highs to the
mid and upper 60s across southeast GA and portions of coastal
northeast FL, while 70s persist elsewhere. Decoupling winds at
inland locations on Friday evening should allow lows to fall to the
upper 30s for inland southeast GA, with 40s elsewhere, except 50s
along the northeast FL coast, where a light northeasterly breeze
will develop overnight.

High pressure will then push offshore of the Delmarva peninsula on
Saturday night, allowing low level winds to again veer, signaling
another period of warm air advection across our region during the
weekend. West-southwesterly flow aloft will also redevelop as
ridging aloft over the Caribbean Sea attempts to build back towards
the FL peninsula. Onshore winds will keep coastal highs in the upper
60s to around 70 on Saturday, with 70s forecast elsewhere, except
upper 60s for locations north of Waycross in southeast GA. Lows will
moderate on Saturday night, with upper 40s forecast for inland
southeast GA and northern portions of the Suwannee Valley, while 50s
prevail elsewhere. Highs on Sunday will climb into the 70s area-
wide, except around 80 for north central FL. Lows on Sunday night
will remain in the 50s area-wide.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...

Low stratocumulus clouds at MVFR category look to continue most of
the night and have pushed back any improvement until Tuesday morning
and even then it looks like areas to widespread MVFR may be lingering
over the area. The guidance shows much lower MVFR chances by 07z-12z,
but that looks very questionable. Looked at the IFR probabilities
and these area fairly low and have not seen any reports of IFR so
no TEMPO groups look needed for that. However, showed SCT decks
for JAX, VQQ, and GNV at about 800 ft later tonight. Isolated
shower activity associated with a sfc trough offshore look to
stay east of SGJ through Tuesday. For sfc winds, mainly north-
northeast about 6-12 kts through Tuesday. Should be lighter winds
around the 04z-12z time frame.

&&

.MARINE...

Arctic high pressure centered over the Ohio and Tennessee
Valleys will gradually weaken as it shifts southward towards our
region tonight. Meanwhile, coastal troughing will take shape
over the northeast Florida waters this afternoon and tonight.
Seas will remain at Small Craft Advisory levels for the offshore
waters through Tuesday morning. Winds will shift to southerly
and then southwesterly on Thursday and Thursday night ahead of a
weakening frontal boundary that will approach our local waters,
bringing widely scattered showers and possibly a few
thunderstorms, mainly offshore. This frontal boundary will cross
our area on Friday morning, shifting winds to northwesterly
during the afternoon hours. High pressure building north of our
region on Friday afternoon and evening will wedge down the
southeastern seaboard, resulting in winds shifting to
northeasterly by Friday night and then easterly on Saturday
afternoon.

Rip Currents: SE GA Moderate Tuesday
              NE FL Moderate Tuesday

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Arctic high pressure will settle over the southeastern states this
afternoon, funneling a cold and very dry air mass into our region.
Following a widespread hard freeze this morning, long durations of
critically low humidity values are forecast this afternoon for
inland southeast Georgia. Breezy northeasterly surface and transport
winds across southeast Georgia this morning will gradually diminish
this afternoon, precluding Red Flag conditions. Breezy to strong
northeasterly surface and transport winds will continue today for
coastal locations and for inland locations south of Interstate 10,
yielding good daytime dispersion values. Fair values are expected
elsewhere.

Surface and transport winds will become light and variable across
southeast Georgia and northern portions of the Suwannee Valley on
Tuesday, where low daytime dispersion values are expected.
Northeasterly surface and transport winds will continue to diminish
along the I-10 corridor, where poor daytime dispersion values are
forecast. Breezy transport winds across north central Florida will
yield fair to good dispersion values on Tuesday. Surface and
transport winds will shift to easterly by Wednesday morning and then
southeasterly by the afternoon hours, except southerly across inland
portions of southeast Georgia. Light speeds will result in low
daytime dispersion values for locations north of Waycross, with
cloud cover increasing at coastal locations also creating low
values. Poor values are expected elsewhere, except fair values
across north central Florida.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Freeze warnings are in effect early
this morning for all of southeast Georgia, the Suwannee Valley, and
for locations west of Interstate 95 in northeast Florida. A Freeze
Watch is in effect for these same locations tonight through early
Tuesday morning, with widespread frost formation likely as winds
decrease this evening and overnight. Patchy to areas of fog
formation will be possible for inland portions of northeast and
north central Florida during the predawn and early morning hours on
Wednesday. Patchy to areas of frost formation will be possible
across inland portions of southeast Georgia on Tuesday night and
early Wednesday morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  25  58  34  65 /   0   0   0   0
SSI  37  59  47  64 /   0   0   0  10
JAX  35  63  44  70 /   0   0   0   0
SGJ  48  65  52  71 /   0   0   0  10
GNV  38  68  46  74 /   0   0   0   0
OCF  40  69  48  75 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Freeze Warning until 9 AM EST Tuesday for FLZ021-023-024-030-
     120-220-322-422-522.
     High Risk for Rip Currents until 10 PM EST this evening for FLZ124-
     125-138-233-333.
     High Surf Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for FLZ138-233-
     333.
GA...Freeze Warning until 9 AM EST Tuesday for GAZ132>136-149-
     151>154-162-163-165-166-250-264-350-364.
     High Risk for Rip Currents until 10 PM EST this evening for GAZ154-
     166.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for AMZ450.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Tuesday for AMZ452-454-470.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Tuesday for AMZ472-474.

&&

$$