308
FXUS62 KJAX 032332
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
632 PM EST Wed Dec 3 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Patchy to Areas of Frost Across Inland Southeast GA Late Tonight

- Severe to Extreme Drought Continues for Inland Areas

- Potential for Locally Heavy Rainfall Across Southeast GA Fri & Sat.
Isolated Thunderstorms Possible Area-Wide

- Light Freezes and Frost Possible on Tues & Wed Nights Next Week

- Moderate Rip Current Risk Continues at Area Beaches

&&

.UPDATE...
Forecast on track for cool temps tonight as scattered to broken high
clouds continue to overspread the region through the overnight
hours. Should still be thin enough to allow for low temps into the
mid/upper 30s across inland SE GA and some patchy/areas of frost,
while lower to middle 40s are expected elsewhere. Increasing high
cloud cover and light north winds should keep any fog formation to a
minimum.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
Afternoon surface analysis depicts slowly strengthening high
pressure (1024 millibars) building southeastward from the Tennessee
Valley towards the southeastern states. Meanwhile, the cold front
that passed across our region on Tuesday afternoon and evening was
now slowing its forward progress across south FL. Aloft...brisk west-
southwesterly flow prevails locally, as our area remains between
flat ridging positioned over Cuba and the Bahamas and troughing that
was digging southeastward from the Upper Midwest. A deck of
stratocumulus cloud cover based around a stout subsidence inversion
at 900 millibars (around 3,000 feet) was slowly eroding early this
afternoon for locations south and east of Waycross, while this cloud
cover has been thicker for locations north and west of Waycross thus
far. Temperatures beneath this thicker cloud cover remain stuck
around 50 degrees as of 18Z, and dewpoints were falling through the
30s as a drier air mass continues to advect into our region. Peaks
of sunshine were countering cold air advection elsewhere, allowing
temperatures to climb to the upper 50s and lower 60s at most
locations. Dewpoints for these areas were generally in the 45-50
range.

Brisk west-southwesterly flow aloft will continue tonight, advecting
a veil of mostly thin, high altitude cirrus across our skies.
Surface ridging will continue to build into our region from the
northwest, allowing for surface winds to decouple early this evening
at inland locations. The veil of cirrus should be thin enough for
radiational cooling, with patchy to areas of frost formation
expected for inland locations in southeast GA after midnight, where
lows will fall to the mid 30s. Lows elsewhere will fall to the upper
30s for inland locations along I-10 and 40s elsewhere, except around
50 along the northeast FL coast, where a light north northwesterly
breeze will continue overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Rounds of rain will move through the area mainly along and north of
the I-10 corridor Thursday and Friday as a parade of upper
shortwaves round a ridge and traverse across the Gulf states. At the
surface, an area of low pressure develops in the NW Gulf and tracks
eastward along the Gulf coast lifting a warm front up the FL
peninsula. Rain will be mainly either light or sprinkles on Thursday
as it has to overcome the dry airmass over the area. Developing SSW
flow ahead of the approaching surface low will promote warm air and
moisture advection inland. Showers become more widespread on Friday
and limited elevated instability will support a few embedded
thunderstorms. Convection continues into Friday night as the low and
cold front move into northern FL. WPC Excessive Rainfall Outlook
indicates a Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall across of inland SE
GA due to the potential for continuous rounds of heavy downpours.
Highs on Thursday will range from the upper 50s/low 60s in SE GA to
the low/mid 70s in north-central FL. Temperatures increase to above
seasonable on Friday with highs in the mid 60s to the low 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A cold front will stall over north-central FL Saturday into Saturday
Night before finally shifting south into central FL later on Sunday.
Deep Gulf moisture will increase PWATs into the 1.6-1.8 in. range
which is above seasonable for this time of the year. Moist
environment and the frontal boundary providing a focus for ascent
will produce numerous to widespread showers with embedded
thunderstorms moving across the area mainly Saturday afternoon into
Sunday morning. This will bring beneficial rainfall to our
severe/extreme drought areas with rainfall totals in the 1 to 4 inch
range. However, minor flooding could occur in areas that
continuously receive rounds of heavy rainfall in a short time
period. The axis of heavy rain will generally be across inland SE GA
where locally higher amounts are possible. WPC expanded their
Marginal risk of excessive rainfall to include SE GA and NE FL for
their Saturday outlook.

From Sunday night through Tuesday, a drier and colder airmass will
settle over the area under building high pressure. Temperatures will
fall to below normal for early December, with highs in the lower to
mid 60s and overnight lows in the mid 30s to mid 40s. Guidance also
suggest another, albeit drier, reinforcing front boundary Monday,
supporting cool and dry conditions with good model agreement.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
VFR with a slow thickening of mid and high clouds for the 00Z TAF
period, along with light North winds of 3-5 knots tonight and 6-9
knots after 18Z Thursday. Have kept the brief MVFR fog in the TAF
forecast for VQQ in the 08-12Z time frame tonight.

&&

.MARINE...


High pressure will build over the southeastern states tonight and
Thursday. Low pressure will then organize along the northern Gulf
coast on Thursday night, with a warm front lifting northward across
our local waters on Friday, accompanied by an increasing coverage of
showers. Weak low pressure will move northeastward across
southeastern Georgia on Friday evening, with this storm system`s
cold front then crossing our local waters on Friday night and
Saturday morning. A wave of low pressure will then develop along
this front just south of the northeast Florida waters on Saturday
night, keeping showers and a few embedded thunderstorms over our
local waters through Sunday. Low pressure will then strengthen as it
moves offshore on Sunday night and Monday, resulting in
strengthening north northwesterly winds as rainfall ends.

Rip Currents: SE GA Moderate Thursday
              NE FL Moderate Thursday

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
     LOW DAYTIME DISPERSIONS AREA WIDE ON THURSDAY...
     LOW DAYTIME DISPERSIONS SE GA SATURDAY...



Light northwest winds become established later this afternoon, with
Poor to Fair dispersions, becoming Poor by Thursday. Rounds of
rainfall move through the area Thursday into this weekend ahead of
an approaching cold front. Mainly light showers anticipated on
Thursday along and north of I-10 corridor. Showers and embedded
thunderstorms increase area-wide late Friday into Saturday. South-
southwesterly flow increases on Friday developing fair dispersions.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS...Patchy frost possible Tonight into
Thursday morning for interior locations in southeast Georgia. Heavy
rain potential for inland southeast Georgia and Suwannee Valley
Friday into the weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  33  56  46  66 /   0  50  40  80
SSI  44  61  52  71 /   0  30  20  50
JAX  40  66  52  78 /   0  20  10  30
SGJ  46  68  57  80 /  10  10  10  10
GNV  42  71  54  80 /  10  10  10  20
OCF  44  74  55  81 /  10  10   0  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$