Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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FXUS62 KJAX 071842
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
242 PM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY/...

TONIGHT...FORECAST ON TRACK WITH WEAK N-S TROUGH AXIS STILL
LINGERING ACROSS NE FL/SE GA. THE WEAK STEERING FLOW IS KEEPING
THE SEA BREEZE FRONTS FROM MOVING IN VERY QUICKLY BUT STILL EXPECT
SCATTERED STORMS TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS THEY
MOVE INLAND WITH THE BEST CHANCES STILL BETWEEN THE I-95 AND I-75
CORRIDORS OF INLD NE FL WITH LESSER CHANCES AS YOU MOVE NORTH
ACROSS SE GA. THE WEAK STEERING FLOW WILL LEAD TO ERRATIC STORM
MOTION AS THE SEA BREEZE FRONT COLLIDE BUT HI RES MODELS STILL
WANT TO ALLOW MAIN BAND OF CONVECTION TO DRIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST
ACROSS THE I-75 CORRIDOR CLOSER TO SUNSET AND BACK INTO THE NE
GOMEX BY MIDNIGHT. QUIET CONDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS CLOUDS SLOWLY DISSIPATING. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE TOWARDS
MORNING IN AREAS THAT RECEIVE RAINFALL TODAY. CLIMO LOWS IN THE
LOWER 70S INLAND AND MID/UPPER 70S COAST/ALONG THE RIVER.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WRN
ATLC ACROSS NE FL/SE GA AND THE MID/UPPER LEVELS AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN SLOWLY FROM THE SOUTHEAST. STEERING FLOW
REMAINS LIGHT BUT SHIFTS OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST AND EXPECT NEAR
CLIMO POPS WITH MAINLY INLAND STORMS AS THE ATLC COAST SEA BREEZE
FRONT PUSHES INLAND...STORM COVERAGE EXPECTED IN THE 40-50% RANGE
ACROSS NE FL AND 20-30% RANGE ACRS SE GA. MAX TEMPS NEAR CLIMO
LEVELS IN THE LOWER 90S ACROSS INLD NE FL AND UPPER 80S ALONG THE
COAST...WHILE INLD SE GA WILL WARM UP INTO THE MIDDLE 90S WITH
LESS STORM COVERAGE AND HEAT INDICES GETTING INTO THE 100-105
DEGREE RANGE.

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

WEAK RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. WITH THIS PATTERN EXPECT CONVECTION TO INITIATE EACH DAY
EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON DUE TO DIURNAL INSTABILITY...THEN CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. WEST AND EAST COAST SEA BREEZES ALONG
WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL HELP TO PROVIDE FOCUS FOR A FEW STRONG
STORMS. WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE EACH
DAY BY MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL THIS PERIOD.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

WEAK SURFACE RIDGING WITH RIDGING ALOFT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS PATTERN WILL RESULT IN DAILY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SCATTERED CONVECTION. THIS PATTERN BREAKS DOWN INTO NEXT
WEEK...AS AN UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN US. THIS UPPER
TROUGH COUPLED WITH DIURNAL INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS. TEMPERATURES THIS PERIOD
WILL GENERALLY BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR DESPITE SCATTERED STORMS THROUGH 00Z AT TAF SITES AND
MAIN THREAT OF TEMPO GROUPS AT INLAND TAF SITES FROM 20-22Z WITH
POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS AND MVFR CIGS/VSBYS. AFTER 00Z EXPECT
MAINLY VFR CIGS WITH SCATTERED CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS. PATCHY
FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE TOWARDS MORNING...MAINLY AT INLAND TERMINALS
THAT MIGHT RECEIVE RAIN THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTH FLOW AROUND 10-15 KNOTS AND SEAS 2-4 FT EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. LOCAL SELY SEA BREEZES DURING THE AFTERNOON
ALONG THE COAST BECOMING SWLY AT NIGHT.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK CONTINUES IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  72  95  73  95 /  10  20  20  30
SSI  76  87  77  90 /  10  10  10  20
JAX  74  92  73  92 /  10  30  20  20
SGJ  75  89  74  90 /  10  30  10  20
GNV  72  93  71  93 /  30  40  30  40
OCF  72  93  72  93 /  30  50  30  40

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

HESS/STRUBLE/WALSH


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