Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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000
FXUS62 KJAX 301905
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
305 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

...WARMING TREND WITH LOW CHANCES OF PRECIP THROUGH THU...

.SHORT TERM...THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THU...

SYNOPSIS...GRADUAL WARMING TREND WITH LOW RAIN CHANCES EACH DAY
MAINLY DURING THE AFTN.

THIS AFTERNOON...PRE-FRONTAL PRECIP WEAKENED SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT
PUSHED SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE ALTAMAHA RIVER BASIN EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. NO LIGHTNING OBSERVED FOR SEVERAL HOURS WITH CLOUD TOP
WARMING TREND. SHORT TERM GUIDANCE ADVERTISED THE PRECIP SHIELD
CONTINUING TO ERODE WHILE ADVANCING TOWARD NE FL THROUGH THE LATE
AFTN HOURS....WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TSTORMS ACROSS THE SUWANNEE RIVER VALLEY BETWEEN 21Z-
01Z WHERE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL INTERACT WITH MARGINAL
SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY. IF STORMS CAN BREAK THROUGH VERY DRY
MID LEVEL AIR...A FEW DISCRETE CELLS MAY PRODUCE HAIL GIVEN SUCH
COLD 500 MB TEMPS (-15 TO -17 DEG C) AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT COULD
HELP PRODUCE GUSTY DOWNDRAFTS. HIGH TEMPS TOPPED OUT IN THE LOW
60S ACROSS SE GA WHERE RAIN COOLED AIR LOWERED TEMPS INTO THE MID
50S EARLY THIS AFTN. FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS NE FL HIGH TEMPS WERE ON
TRACK TO NEAR THE MID 70S.

TONIGHT...ADVERTISED ONLY A LOW 20% CHANCE OF SHOWERS THIS
EVENING SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR THROUGH MIDNIGHT UNTIL
PRECIP SHOULD COMPLETELY ERODES. AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED HOWEVER EXTENT AND PERSISTENT OF FOG IS
QUESTIONABLE GIVEN LINGERING CLOUD COVER...MAY BECOME MORE OF A
STRATUS AS MOISTURE POOLING OCCURS IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONTAL
ZONE AS IT BEGINS TO STALL ACROSS N-FL PENINSULA INTO EARLY TUE.
MIN TEMPS WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL TONIGHT WITH VALUES IN THE
LOW/MID 50S INLAND TO UPPER 50S COAST.

TUE THROUGH WED NIGHT...A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE
WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE AREA WHICH WILL
SUPPORT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED MAINLY AFTERNOON TSTORMS.
ADVERTISED LOW 20-30% RAIN CHANCES TUE AFTN WITH A FOCUS ACROSS
INLAND SE GA AND GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 301 IN NE FL
UNDER MEAN LAYER WSW FLOW. WED ADVERTISED HIGHER CHANCE OF 30-40%
ACROSS INTERIOR NE FL WHERE THE SEA BREEZES WILL COINCIDE WITH THE
FRONTAL AXIS AS IT BEGINS TO SHIFT FARTHER SOUTH AS A STRONGER
SURFACE HIGH BEGINS TO NOSE DOWN THE SE ATLANTIC SEABOARD FROM THE
NE. BY THU MORE STABLE AND DRIER EASTERLY FLOW WILL FOCUS A LOW
20-30% CHANCE OF AFTN/EVENING SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS WEST OF THE
ST JOHNS RIVER BASIN BY THE LATE AFTN. PRECIP WILL DECREASE IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AT NIGHT. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE CLIMO VALUES WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S AND MILD MINS
IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY
INLAND FOG EACH NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...FRI THROUGH MON...

SYNOPSIS...MILD TEMPS WITH LOW CHANCES OF MAINLY SHOWERS SAT-MON.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS FRI WITH STACKED
RIDGING OVER THE AREA UNDER WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS CONTINUE SAT WITH A LOW 20-30% CHANCE OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED
TSTORMS AHEAD OF A STALLING COLD FRONT. MOISTURE DECREASES AND
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT BECOMES NEARLY ZONAL AS THE FRONT SLIDES OVER
NE FL SAT NIGHT WITH RAIN CHANCES FALLING TO 20% OR LESS. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NNE OF THE REGION SUN/MON WITH BREEZY AND
COOLER ONSHORE FLOW BRINGING TEMPS NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
START OF NEXT WEEK. A 20-30% CHANCE OF MAINLY COASTAL SHOWERS SUN
NIGHT WILL SHIFT INLAND THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...

PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WITH FRONTAL PRECIP
EXPECTED TO REMAIN AWAY FROM THE TERMINALS. TONIGHT INCREASED
CONFIDENCE OF MVFR TO IFR CIGS/GROUND FOG IMPACTING ALL TERMINALS
AS FRONTAL ZONE SLOWLY PRESSES SOUTHWARD ACROSS NE FL WITH LIFR
POTENTIAL AT GNV/VQQ BEFORE SUNRISE TUE. BREEZY WEST WINDS THIS
AFTN WILL RELAX THIS EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE WATERS THIS
EVENING THEN LINGER OVER THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH A LIGHT
AND VARIED WIND PATTERN OVER THE AREA. THURSDAY HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD NORTHEAST OF THE AREA WHICH WILL SHIFT WINDS ONSHORE.
THE HIGH WILL BUILD EAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FRIDAY AND
FARTHER SOUTH ON SATURDAY AS SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING WEAKENING COLD FRONT.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK TODAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

HIGH DISPERSIONS EXPECTED AGAIN ON TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  50  79  60  80 /  20  30  20  30
SSI  55  72  61  73 /  20  20  20  30
JAX  54  79  61  78 /  20  30  20  30
SGJ  57  75  61  74 /  20  20  10  30
GNV  55  81  60  80 /  20  20  10  40
OCF  56  81  60  81 /  20  20  10  30

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

ENYEDI/SANDRIK/WALSH



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