Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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FXUS62 KJAX 230748
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
248 AM EST Mon Jan 23 2017

...Windy conditions expected today...

.NEAR TERM /Today-Tonight/...

Today...Strong mid/upper level trof axis to cross the region on the
south side of strong low pressure system over the SE U.S. as it
drifts towards the Carolinas. This will enhance windy conditions
across all areas with west winds increasing to 20-30mph with gusts
to 35-40 mph possible at times and wind advisory has been issued for
the late morning and afternoon hours. Another round of showers is
expected to rotate around the south side of the low and push through
SE GA today with scattered showers at times. Max Temps still a bit
uncertain with mainly lower/middle 60s across SE GA with more cloud
cover and shower chances while a bit more sun across NE FL will
allow temps to rebound up close to 70 degrees this afternoon.

Tonight...Low pushes off the Carolinas and skies will clear through
the night with a slow decreasing of the W/NW winds and this will
allow for temps to fall into the 40s. Winds 15 to 25 mph in the
evening will decrease to 10 to 15 mph overnight and will make for
rather chilly conds by Tue Morning.

.SHORT TERM /Tuesday and Wednesday/...

Deep layer ridge axis over the Mississippi River valley Tuesday
morning will shift east and slowly move across our area through
Wednesday. Seasonable temps, only slightly above normal, will
prevail on Tuesday. Temps will warm to a good 10 degrees above
normal on Wednesday as southwest flow increases ahead of a cold
front. No rain is expected through Wednesday.

.LONG TERM /Thursday through Sunday/...

There will be just enough moisture and frontal forcing to support
at least scattered pre-frontal shower activity on Thursday. The
showers will move through southeast Georgia mainly during the pre-
dawn hours early Thursday morning and then through northeast
Florida during the mid to late morning hours before clearing to
our south by mid afternoon on Thursday. Cooler and drier air will
filter in behind the cold front with dry weather and below average
temps Thursday night through the upcoming weekend. Light freezes
will be possible across interior portions of the forecast area
next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
Mainly VFR conds through the period with strong west winds of 15-
20G25-30 knots at times. Models are suggesting some low chances of
MVFR cigs around 2500 feet wrapping around the south side of the low
pressure with the best chances at SSI from 14z-23z time frame.

&&

.MARINE...

Strong West flow expected on the south side of departing low
pressure system with 25 to 35 knot sustained winds and frequent
gusts to gale force over the offshore waters and will keep Gale
warning in place there with SCA and occasional gusts to gale force
over the nearshore waters. Seas 4-6ft near and 8-11 offshore. These
conds will continue into early tonight before starting to subside on
Tuesday with no headlines by Tue Afternoon. High pressure over the
region on Wed and front by Thu with winds/seas still below SCA
levels.

Rip Currents: Low Risk in the offshore flow.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

River Flood Warning issued for the Altamaha River near Baxley, with
possible warnings to come for more locations on the Altamaha River,
Satilla River and Alapaha River this week as heavy rains drain into
the SE GA river basins.

&&

.CLIMATE...

Record daily rainfall amounts set at AMG/SSI yesterday, these were
also the 2nd highest all-time daily rainfall totals for the month of
January. See Record Event Reports for details.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  64  43  67  43 /  60   0   0   0
SSI  65  48  69  47 /  30  10   0   0
JAX  69  46  70  44 /  10   0   0   0
SGJ  70  48  71  48 /  10   0   0   0
GNV  68  45  70  44 /  10   0   0   0
OCF  70  45  70  46 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 6 PM EST this evening
     for Alachua-Baker-Bradford-Clay-Coastal Duval-Coastal
     Nassau-Columbia-Flagler-Gilchrist-Hamilton-Inland Duval-
     Inland Nassau-Marion-Putnam-St. Johns-Suwannee-Union.

GA...Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 6 PM EST this evening
     for Appling-Atkinson-Bacon-Brantley-Charlton-Clinch-Coastal
     Camden-Coastal Glynn-Coffee-Echols-Inland Camden-Inland
     Glynn-Jeff Davis-Pierce-Ware-Wayne.

AM...Gale Warning until 4 AM EST Tuesday for Waters from Altamaha
     Sound GA to Fernandina Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters
     from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine FL from 20 to 60 NM-
     Waters from St. Augustine to Flagler Beach FL from 20 to 60
     NM.

     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Tuesday for Coastal waters
     from Altamaha Sound to Fernandina Beach FL out 20 NM-
     Coastal waters from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine FL
     out 20 NM-Coastal waters from St. Augustine to Flagler
     Beach FL out 20 NM.

&&

$$

Hess/Shuler



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