Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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FXUS62 KJAX 191935

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
235 PM EST Mon Feb 19 2018

.NEAR TERM /Tonight and Tuesday/...

Backdoor cold front is still wedged along the coast of southeast
Georgia and slowly lifting north. The associated dense sea fog
bank over the nearshore waters is getting pushed onshore and
being mixed out as soon as it hits the warmer land areas. The
bulk of this fog bank will likely get completely scoured out by
the late evening hours. As a result, some of the model data seems
be too bullish showing sea fog drifting inland along the I-95
corridor this evening. Fog will likely hold off until late tonight
when areas of fog will be possible due to the continued moist
low-level onshore flow from the Atlantic. A few spotty showers off
the Atlantic cannot be completely ruled out in this pattern but
not enough to warrant placement in the forecast at this time.

Another warm day expected on Tuesday as high pressure builds east
of the area. Near record temps will be possible across locations
well inland. Onshore flow will keep temps a little lower at the
beaches. A few light showers will be possible in moist onshore
flow. A little better chance for some shower activity will be
closer to the I-75 corridor during the afternoon hours as a weak
embedded wave moves north around the western periphery of large
upper high.

.SHORT TERM...Tue night through Thu...

Continued above normal temperatures with a warming trend with
mostly dry conditions and late night/morning fog as upper level
ridge strengthens across the region. The surface ridge axis will
be north of the region, which will bring prevailing ESE surface
flow which could bring some passing light coastal showers over the
adjacent Atlantic waters and just inland associated with some weak
coastal troughs as they pivot westward. Could also have some early
evening showers generally west of Highway 441 Tue night due to sea
breeze interactions, but overall despite a decent cumulus field
each day, the mid and upper levels will be too stable and too dry
to support deeper convective growth and tend to inhibit shower
formation. Late night and morning fog will continue to be the main
sensible weather hazard over the short term hazard, with dense fog
advisories likely.

High temperatures will continue well above normal with values in
the mid/upper 70s coast to low 80s inland. Lows will generally
range in the 60s.

.LONG TERM...Fri through Mon...

Continued warmth with gradually increasing rain chances this
period. Friday an influx of moisture associated with a weak
tropical wave moving across the FL peninsula will pivot across the
local area and interact with sea breezes and diurnal heating to
bring a low chance of showers. Dry conditions prevail Sat as mean
layer ridging begins to weakening across the area, with only a low
chance of sea breeze showers across our southern FL zones. Sun
into Mon increasing rain chances as a frontal system drifts
eastward toward the MS River Valley with increasing mid/upper
level WSW flow out of the GOMEX raising moisture content and
bringing some weak mid level forcing across the area, especially
Sunday into Sun night. Models shear out dynamics and decrease
moisture as the front begins to sag southward across SE GA late
Sun night into Mon, with decreasing rain chances into Mon across
NE FL as the boundary pushes across the area as more of a backdoor
cold front.



VFR conditions expected to prevail through this evening. IFR
conditions will be possible after midnight but models are starting
to back off quite a bit with the sea fog along the coast this
evening. Have left the more pessimistic forecast tonight in place
for now but confidence in widespread dense fog is decreasing.



Dense sea fog expected to lift by this evening. Some additional
fog could develop tonight but confidence is not very high in sea
fog becoming dense. High pressure northeast of the area will
remain firmly in control through the rest of the week.
Southeasterly flow less than 15 knots will prevail through the end
of the week and into the weekend.

Rip Currents: Low Risk.


AMG  60  82  64  83 /  10  20  10  10
SSI  60  72  61  75 /  10  20  20  10
JAX  61  80  64  81 /  10  20  10  10
SGJ  64  78  64  78 /  10  20  10  10
GNV  62  84  64  84 /  10  20  10   0
OCF  63  85  65  85 /  10  20  10   0


AM...Dense Fog Advisory until 3 PM EST this afternoon for Coastal
     waters from Altamaha Sound to Fernandina Beach FL out 20 NM-
     Coastal waters from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine FL
     out 20 NM.



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