Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

Current Version |  Previous Version |  Text Only |  Print | Product List |  Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33
776
FXUS62 KJAX 131125
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
725 AM EDT Sun Jul 13 2025

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 1246 AM EDT Sun Jul 13 2025

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Surface trough over the Carolinas will drop southward Today across
NE FL/SE GA with a Northwest steering flow, then position itself
over the nearshore Atlantic Coastal waters just East of NE FL/SE
GA tonight with the steering flow becoming northerly. This
transition will lead to the advection of PWATs around 2 inches or
more southward into coastal SE GA and most of NE FL, while some
slightly drier airmass aloft will build into inland SE GA today,
which will limit convection there to just widely scattered
coverage, while the inland movement of both the Atlantic/Gulf
coast sea breeze fronts inland across NE FL will lead to numerous
to widespread coverage of rainfall by the mid-late
afternoon/evening hours, with scattered strong storms with gusty
winds of 40-50 mph, but the main threat will be heavy rainfall
from storm activity across all of NE FL, with localized flooding
expected, mainly in urban areas. Convection will fade after sunset
over inland areas, but will linger over the Atlantic Coastal
waters along the surface trough axis through the overnight hours
on Sunday Night. The NW steering flow pattern will lead to Max
Temps into the mid/upper 90s across inland SE GA, where less
rainfall coverage is expected, with lower/middle 90s across
coastal SE GA and most of NE FL, these above normal temps will
combine with dewpoints in the lower to middle 70s to push peak
heat indices into the 104-108F range and very close to Heat
Advisory criteria of >= 108F for 2 hours or more. For now will
likely hold off an any heat advisory issuance for a couple of
reasons, first to start the day there will likely be plentiful
convective debris clouds this morning leftover from storms along
the trough axis to the north of the area, and secondly the
coverage of rainfall expected by the mid-late afternoon hours
across coastal SE GA/NE FL will likely bring an earlier end to any
Heat Indices around 108F, so will be tougher to actually reach the
2 hour criteria for Heat Advisory. Above normal temps will
continue Sunday Night with lows in the middle 70s inland and upper
70s along the Atlantic Coastal areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday through Tuesday night)
Issued at 1246 AM EDT Sun Jul 13 2025

An area of low pressure that is expected to be centered off the
SE GA and NE FL coasts Monday morning, will track southwest across
forecast area Monday, then into the northeastern Gulf Monday night.
The low will continue to track further west into the Gulf Tuesday
into Tuesday night, as high pressure builds to the east northeast.

Due to the track of the low, and convergence along its track the
greatest chances for showers and storms this period will be over
NE FL. A few strong storms with periods of heavy rainfall will be
possible.

Monday will be the hotter of the two days, with heat indices
approaching advisory levels.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 1246 AM EDT Sun Jul 13 2025

Area of low pressure is expected to move west across north central
Gulf through Thursday, as high pressure ridging builds across
forecast area from the east northeast. This high pressure ridge will
remain across area through Saturday. This is expected to be a wet
period, with above average precipitation chances.

Temperatures will be near to a little above normal this period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 712 AM EDT Sun Jul 13 2025

A rather rare summer north to northwestward flow will be expected across
the area today, though will be light enough for a sea breeze to
affect SSI, CRG, and SGJ by early this afternoon. Left out JAX for
this wind shift at this time, though it will be possible the
boundary will make it this far inland by early to mid afternoon.
Daytime convection will be numerous across most of the area today,
but especially at FL airfields. Confidence is still high enough
to include TEMPOs at all sites for gusty winds and MVFR/LIFR
ceilings and vsbys. Convection will mostly wane as usual tonight,
though a weak low/trough near the east coast of Florida tonight
will likely hold TSRA chances for several hours after sunset, in
addition to some isolated SHRA overnight - especially at coastal
airfields.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1246 AM EDT Sun Jul 13 2025

Atlantic high pressure extending its axis westward across the
Florida peninsula will shift southward Today as a weak trough
develops near the Gulf Stream waters. This trough will then slowly
migrate westward across our local waters on Monday, with this
feature shifting into the northeast Gulf of Mexico by Tuesday.
Showers and thunderstorms will likely increase across our local
waters beginning later on Monday and Tuesday, with prevailing
winds shifting to southerly by Tuesday as this trough slowly
organizes over the eastern Gulf of Mexico towards midweek.
SCA/SCEC headlines are not expected this week.

Rip Currents: Low to Moderate risk of rips with surf/breakers of
1-2 ft today and Monday as morning offshore flow, becomes onshore
during the afternoon and evening hours.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  96  74  97  73 /  30  20  50  20
SSI  91  77  92  78 /  40  30  40  20
JAX  95  75  95  75 /  70  50  70  20
SGJ  93  74  92  75 /  70  60  70  20
GNV  94  74  95  73 /  80  60  90  30
OCF  93  74  93  74 /  80  60  90  40

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$