Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
FXUS62 KJAX 011919
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
317 PM EDT FRI JUL 1 2016
.NEAR TERM /Tonight/...
Rest of this afternoon...Line of showers/storms pushing across NE
FL/SE GA will continue to produce wind gusts of 30-40 mph and
brief heavy rainfall...with just a few storms becoming strong as
it reaches the stationary sea breeze pinned at the coast. Activity
will push into the Atlantic waters during the late afternoon hours
while just a few showers/storms will linger over the inland areas
through sunset behind the initial line.
Tonight...Showers/storms ending around sunset with just a slight
chance of showers over the coastal waters during the evening hours
while the Southwest flow will once again start showers/storms
during the overnight hours along the Big Bend Region of the NE
GOMEX which could track inland towards the I-75 corridor of North
Florida at times, but rain chances generally remain at 40% or
less. Min temps will fall close to climo values in the lower to
middle 70s inland and upper 70s along the St Johns River/Coast.
.SHORT TERM /Sat-Mon/...
Sat-Sat Night...Very little change in the pattern is expected as
SW steering flow remains in place with PWATS still close to 2
inches. The lack of shortwave energy aloft as trof begins to
break down may tweak down rain chances around 10-20% from today,
but still expect numerous showers and storms across NE FL with
scattered showers/storms elsewhere, with possibly a slightly later
start than today due to slightly slower SW flow in the lower
levels. This later start will allow for max temps to surge into
the lower/middle 90s inland with heat indices of 100-105 degrees.
The slightly weaker SW Flow will allow for a Atlc Coast Sea breeze
to move inland to almost of the I-95 corridor and highs in the
upper 80s are expected. Activity will wind down after sunset Sat
Night with fair skies expected overnight with little to no pcpn
expected except for some low chances across the Big Bend region
towards morning. Min temps slightly higher in the middle 70s
inland and upper 70s/near 80 along the river/coast.
Sunday through Monday...Upper ridge will build in from the east with
warming temperatures and rain chances returning back to near average
levels. Highs will be in the low to mid 90s with lows in the low to
mid 70s. Scattered afternoon storms can be expected as a persistent
sw steering flow results in seabreeze collisions near the east coast.
.LONG TERM...Tuesday through Friday...High pressure at the surface
and aloft across the Florida peninsula will dominate through the
period. Above normal temperatures with isolated to scattered daily
thunderstorms can be expected. Afternoon heat indices will be around
105 each day.
Have included brief tempo groups at TAF sites from 18-20z to
account for front edge of showers/storms with brief MVFR
cigs/vsbys and wind gusts up to 30 knots possible. VCSH will
linger at TAF sites with generally VFR conds through Sunset (00z)
then VFR with high clouds lingering overnight. Any early
morning/sunrise fog for Sat will be brief and around 5-6SM so have
not included in the current TAF suite.
South to Southwest flow around 15 knots or less will continue
through the period as High Pressure ridge remains south of the
local waters. Seas generally 2 to 4 feet. Offshore moving storms
will continue to be a threat into the weekend with less storm
activity expected next week.
Rip Currents: Low Risk with the offshore flow.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 72 94 74 93 / 10 30 10 20
SSI 76 89 78 90 / 30 30 10 30
JAX 74 92 75 92 / 20 50 20 40
SGJ 75 90 76 89 / 20 50 20 30
GNV 73 91 74 90 / 20 50 20 30
OCF 73 90 74 91 / 20 50 20 30