Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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FXUS62 KJAX 221818
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
218 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

...BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND WITH AN ELEVATED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT LOCAL BEACHES...

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...NORTHEAST WIND SURGE STILL WORKING ITS
WAY DOWN THE COAST WITH SPEEDS REACHING INTO THE 15-20G25 MPH
RANGE...THE WIND SURGE IS ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS
ALONG WITH A FEW-SCT MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS PUSHING IN ALOFT FROM
THE WEST...BUT OVERALL STILL PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH
TEMPS INTO THE 80S MOST AREAS...NEAR 90 INLAND NE FL AND UPPER 70S
ALONG THE SE GA COAST BEHIND THE SURGE.

TONIGHT...NORTHEAST WIND SURGE TO TAPER OFF AFTER SUNSET LEAVING
WINDS AROUND 15 MPH ALONG THE COAST AND FALLING TO 5-10 MPH
INLAND. JUST ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP A FEW LOWER
STRATO-CU CLOUDS AROUND IN ADDITION TO A FEW MID/UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS. OVERALL WILL BE FAIR SKIES WITH BETTER CHANCE OF PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES NEAR THE COAST AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES INLAND. TEMPS
WILL BE COMFORTABLE FOR LATE MAY IN THE 60-65 RANGE ACRS INLD SE
GA AND 65-70 ACRS INLD NE FL AND NEAR 70 ALONG THE COAST IN THE
ONSHORE FLOW. A FEW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP IN THE COASTAL WATERS
OVERNIGHT...BUT WILL REMAIN JUST OFFSHORE UNTIL AROUND SUNRISE
WHEN A FEW MAY GET CLOSE TO THE COAST SOUTH OF ST AUGUSTINE.

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SHIFT FROM NORTH OF THE REGION SATURDAY TO
THE EAST/NORTHEAST BY MONDAY. AS THIS RIDGE SINKS SOUTHEAST THE FLOW
WILL SLOWLY TURN FROM EAST TO SOUTHEAST.

WITH THE EASTERLY FLOW SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...BREEZY AND SLIGHTLY
COOLER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS WILL BE EXPECTED AT AREA BEACHES...WITH
A FEW COASTAL SHOWERS POSSIBLE. FURTHER INLAND WINDS WILL BE
LIGHTER...WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING TO ABOVE NORMAL READINGS. A
WEST COAST SEA BREEZE COULD LEAD TO A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS
INTERSTATE 75 CORRIDOR.

INTO MONDAY THE FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHEASTERLY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
A MORE MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS TO ADVECT IN...LEADING TO BETTER
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT THE WEST
COAST AND EAST COAST SEA BREEZES TO HELP FOCUS THIS CONVECTION.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO MODERATE ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES MONDAY.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN EAST/NORTHEAST OF THE REGION
THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE STRENGTH OF THIS RIDGE WILL
WEAKEN THROUGH THE WEEK. THEREFORE...A CONTINUED ONSHORE
EAST/SOUTHEAST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST...BUT THIS FLOW WILL
DECREASE IN STRENGTH.

AS THIS FLOW DECREASES TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABLE TO MODERATE
CLOSER TO THE COAST AS WELL AS INLAND. WITH LITTLE
TO FOCUS CONVECTION ON OTHER THAN SEA BREEZE INTERACTIONS...
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE LOW WITH BEST CHANCES LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...AND PRIMARILY WELL INLAND.

&&

.AVIATION...
LOWER LEVEL STRATO-CU DECK PUSHING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE SE GA
COAST IS BEING REPORTED IN 3000-4000 FT RANGE AND WILL BE BROKEN
AT KSSI FOR A WHILE THIS AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE A MIX OF SOME
SCATTERED CU AROUND 4000-5000 FEET ALONG WITH SOME FEW-SCT MID
CLOUDS IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AT LOCAL TAF SITES
BUT MAINLY VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED WITH ELEVATED WINDS TO PREVENT
ANY FOG FORMATION. GUSTY NE WINDS TO INCREASE AROUND 14-15Z ON SAT
ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW LEVEL ONSHORE MOISTURE TO PRODUCE
SOME CLOUD DECKS IN THE 2000-4000 FT RANGE BUT TOO FAR IN FUTURE
TO LOCK DOWN ANY MVFR CIGS...BUT WOULD BE MOST LIKELY AT KCRG OR
KSGJ.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTHEAST SURGE PUSHING DOWN THE COAST HAS FLATTENED OUT A BIT AND
SHOULD HOLD INTO THE 15-20 KNOT RANGE WITH HIGHER GUSTS AT TIMES
SO WILL KEEP SCEC HEADLINES INTACT. 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE STILL
SHOWING NORTHEAST WINDS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH A SLIGHT UPTICK
CLOSE TO 20 KNOTS ON SATURDAY BUT NOT ENOUGH TO PULL THE TRIGGER
ON AN ADVISORY AND WILL KEEP ONE MARINE GROUPING AND CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE A SOLID 15-20 KNOTS WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 4-6 FT TONIGHT
AND POSSIBLY INTO THE 5-7 FT RANGE BY SUNDAY. WILL BE A CLOSE
SHAVE BETWEEN SCEC AND ADVISORY CONDS ALL THE WAY INTO MONDAY WHEN
THE FLOW WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST AND SLOWLY START TO WEAKEN.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK TODAY TO BECOME MODERATE TO HIGH OVER
THE WEEKEND IN THE STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW. BREAKERS WILL BUILD INTO
THE 3-5 FT RANGE BY SATURDAY AND POSSIBLY HIGHER ON SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  60  86  67  87 /   0  10  10  10
SSI  70  82  71  83 /   0  20  20  10
JAX  67  84  68  86 /   0  10  10  10
SGJ  72  83  74  84 /  10  20  10  20
GNV  67  89  69  90 /   0  10  10  10
OCF  69  90  71  90 /  10  20  10  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

HESS/STRUBLE/WALKER


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