Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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FXUS62 KJAX 262000

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
400 PM EDT Tue Sep 26 2017

.NEAR TERM...(Tonight and Wednesday)...

Meanwhile, weak upper ridging will persist from western Gulf of
Mexico into the Mid Atlantic states. Also a weak upper low will be
centered over the northeast GOM, and Maria will continue to lift
north then east off the Mid Atlantic coast into the north Atlantic
maritime waters. NE FL and SE GA will remain between surface high
pressure to the northwest, and departing low pressure to the
northeast. The result will be drier air continuing to filter into
the region with light N-NW winds. With very weak gradient flow, the
seabreeze will pronounced the rest of this afternoon and Wednesday
afternoon, with NE winds near the immediate coast.  With lacking
moisture, showers will confined over north central FL with 5 to 10
percent chances over NE FL. Expect dry conditions with overnight
lows upper 60s inland to lower 70s coast, St. Johns River and
intercoastal.  Highs will reach the lower 90s inland and and upper
80s along the coast.

.SHORT TERM /Wednesday night-Thursday night/...

Weak pressure pattern over the area along with dry and warm air
aloft will lead to a continuation of mostly clear skies at night and
partly to mostly sunny skies in the afternoon. Hot afternoon temps
in the lower to mid 90s inland and near 90 along the coast.

.LONG TERM /Friday-Tuesday/...

Nor`easter conditions expected to develop especially by this weekend
and into early next week as a cold front stalls south of the area
and a strong deep layer ridge builds across the northeast U.S. The
12Z ECMWF has come in much wetter than the 12Z GFS in that it has a
mid/upper low meandering just offshore the Fl east coast which... if
verifies...could bring prolonged periods of rain especially near and
along the coast. Until there is better model consistency...have gone
with high end scattered pops along the Ne Fl coast with lower rain
chances especially across inland Se Ga. Temps will cool to slightly
below normal across most areas except for across inland areas of N
cntl Fl where afternoon temps will be near normal.


.AVIATION...VFR conditions will continue throughout the afternoon
and evening with northwesterly winds decreasing to near calm during
the overnight hours. Expect VFR conditions tomorrow morning with
light northwesterly winds slowly increasing into the afternoon.


.MARINE...Advisory for seas will continue offshore into Wednesday
as swells from Maria keep combined sea heights elevated. Winds will
be light at near 10 knots through Friday as the pressure gradient
remains weak. Northeast winds will increase Saturday as models show
strong high pressure building over New England and weak low pressure
forming near the Bahamas. Advisories will be likely again this

Rip Currents: High rip current risk through this evening due to long
period swells. Moderate risk on Wednesday as swells decrease.


.FIRE WEATHER... A brief period of lower afternoon humidities of 40
to 50 percent will exist through Thursday, as slightly drier air
filters into the region due to light northerly winds. Gradual
moistening will occur from Friday with increasing rain chances with
a nor`easterly flow developing. Given humidities will remain well
above critical levels, no fire weather concerns are expected.


.HYDROLOGY...Coastal Flood Advisory extended through at least
Wednesday for most of the St. Johns River basin as river gauges
still show minor to moderate flooding is still occurring at times of
high tide.

Moderate flooding continues along portions of the Santa Fe River.
Minor flooding still occurring on the St. Marys River and on the
Satilla River east of Waycross.


AMG  68  92  70  93 /   0  10   0  10
SSI  72  89  75  90 /   0  10   0  10
JAX  70  92  72  92 /   0  10   0  10
SGJ  71  89  73  90 /   0   0   0  10
GNV  68  92  70  94 /   0   0   0  10
OCF  69  92  70  93 /  10   0   0  10


FL...High Rip Current Risk until 8 PM EDT this evening for Coastal
     Duval-Coastal Nassau-Flagler-St. Johns.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for Clay-Coastal
     Duval-Flagler-Inland Duval-Putnam-St. Johns.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Wednesday for Waters from
     Altamaha Sound GA to Fernandina Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
     Waters from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine FL from 20 to
     60 NM-Waters from St. Augustine to Flagler Beach FL from 20
     to 60 NM.



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