Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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FXUS62 KJAX 051817
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
217 PM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

...WINDY CONDITIONS DIMINISH THIS EVENING...
...NEAR RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT AND FRIDAY/...

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...TROF PASSAGE FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL KEEP
WINDY CONDITIONS AT 15-25G30-40MPH UNTIL EARLY THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH JUST A FEW CUMULUS CLOUDS MAINLY
ACROSS SE GA. TEMPS TOPPING OUT IN THE 70S. WILL KEEP WIND
ADVISORY UP FOR ALL-AREAS UNTIL 6PM.

TONIGHT...NORTHWEST WINDS DIMINISH RAPIDLY AFTER SUNSET TO 5-10
MPH BY MIDNIGHT AND WILL LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOME LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE BEHIND THE TROF PASSAGE WILL SPILL ACROSS SE GA
WITH A TEMPORARY PERIOD OF PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND EVEN SOME HI-
RES MODELS ARE TRYING TO TRIGGER A FEW SPRINKLES ALONG THE
ALTAMAHA RIVER BASIN THIS EVENING BUT BELIEVE THE ATMOSPHERE IS
TOO DRY TO GET ANY MEASURABLE PCPN SO WILL KEEP JUST 5-10% POPS IN
THOSE AREAS. OTHERWISE SKIES SHOULD BECOME CLEAR TOWARDS MORNING
AND WILL ALLOW FOR NEAR RECORD LOW TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 40S OVER
INLAND AREAS AND LOWER 50S NEAR THE COAST AND VALUES ARE INCLUDED
IN THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW.

FRIDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED IN LIGHTER NORTHWEST FLOW
IN-BETWEEN TROF PASSAGES ROTATING AROUND CUT-OFF LOW OVER THE
CAROLINAS. MAX TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE MIDDLE 70S...ABOUT 5-10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL VALUES. NORTHWEST FLOW AROUND 10-15G20-25 MPH
AT TIMES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL TRANSITION FROM A SIGNIFICANT UPPER TROUGH
IN THE SOUTHEAST WITH SURFACE HIGH BUILDING FROM THE WEST...TO A
FLAT UPPER FLOW WITH SURFACE RIDGE OVERHEAD BY SUNDAY.

WITH THE UPPER TROUGH WORKING EAST FRIDAY NIGHT...EXPECT LINGERING
CLOUDS EAST...WITH A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. EXPECT
CLEAR SKIES FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH
BUILDING.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHT BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH ABOVE NORMAL READINGS FOR SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EAST THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH PERIOD
OF DRY WEATHER CONTINUING. AS THE RIDGE MOVES EAST THE AIRMASS WILL
BEGIN TO BECOME MORE MOIST AND UNSTABLE BY LATE TUESDAY...WITH
CLOUDS INCREASING. WEDNESDAY WILL SEE A RETURN OF DIURNALLY
GENERATED PRECIPITATION AS AIRMASS CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE. THE
COMBINATION OF AN APPROACHING COOL FRONT...AN UPPER TROUGH AND
DIURNALLY INDUCED SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THURSDAY AS WELL.

TEMPERATURES WILL TREND ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR WITH GUSTY W/NW WINDS DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET. SOME
SCATTERED CLOUDS AROUND 3000-4000 FT ARE POSSIBLE AT KSSI THIS
EVENING BUT LIKELIHOOD OF ANY BROKEN CIGS IS LOW AT THIS POINT.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE IN THE OFFSHORE FLOW INTO
TONIGHT THEN RAPIDLY WEAKEN TOWARDS MORNING WITH HEADLINES
EXPIRING AS SEAS ALSO SUBSIDING AS WELL. WINDS WILL REMAIN AT 15
KNOTS OR LESS IN THE OFFSHORE FLOW FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
SEAS BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA. SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS THE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE WRN ATLC BUT WILL
REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA AND SELY SEA BREEZES ARE EXPECTED
AT THE COAST EACH DAY.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK IN THE OFFSHORE FLOW.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDS WILL CONTINUE ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS
MIN RHS WILL FALL TO CRITICAL LEVELS BUT WINDS AT NW 10-15 MPH
WILL LIKELY FALL JUST BELOW RED FLAG CRITERIA.

&&

.CLIMATE...
SELECTED RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY MORNING MAY 6TH:
ALMA................44 (1957)
ST. SIMONS ISLAND...50 (1973)
JACKSONVILLE........45 (1973)
GAINESVILLE.........48 (1970)

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  46  75  52  82 /   0   0  10   0
SSI  52  74  57  79 /   0  10  10   0
JAX  49  76  53  81 /   0   0  10   0
SGJ  53  75  58  78 /   0   0  10   0
GNV  49  76  51  81 /   0   0   0   0
OCF  50  76  51  82 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ALACHUA-BAKER-
     BRADFORD-CLAY-COASTAL DUVAL-COASTAL NASSAU-COLUMBIA-FLAGLER-
     GILCHRIST-HAMILTON-INLAND DUVAL-INLAND NASSAU-MARION-PUTNAM-
     ST. JOHNS-SUWANNEE-UNION.

GA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR APPLING-ATKINSON-
     BACON-BRANTLEY-CHARLTON-CLINCH-COASTAL CAMDEN-COASTAL GLYNN-
     COFFEE-ECHOLS-INLAND CAMDEN-INLAND GLYNN-JEFF DAVIS-PIERCE-
     WARE-WAYNE.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL
     OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER
     BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO
     FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM FERNANDINA
     BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM ST.
     AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

HESS/STRUBLE/WALKER



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