Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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FXUS62 KJAX 041505
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1105 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.UPDATE...THERE IS A BIG MOISTURE GRADIENT ACROSS FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING PER GOES SOUNDER AND UPPER AIR SOUNDING. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES RANGE FROM 2.33 TO 2.66" ACROSS NE FLORIDA TO 1.50 TO
2" ACROSS INTERIOR SE GEORGIA. WITH THE POOLING OF MOISTURE ALONG
THE SURFACE TROF ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL FL. THIS FEATURE WILL SHIFT
SLIGHTLY NORTH THIS AFTERNOON TOWARD THE I-10 CORRIDOR AND WILL
BE THE MAIN COVERGING FOCUS FOR CONVECTION AND HEAVY RAIN. TYPICAL
MORNING CONVECTION ALONG THE BIG BEND WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK INTO
I-75 CORRIDOR OF NORTH FLORIDA THIS MORNING. THEN THE STORMS WILL
TRACK SLOWLY ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
DOWNPOURS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION. ALACHUA COUNTY HAS WET
SOIL CONDITIONS DUE TO A COUPLE SWATHS OF 3 TO 4 INCHES OF HEAVY
RAIN YESTERDAY. ANY HEAVY RAIN OVER THIS AREA...WILL LIKELY LEAD
TO RUNOFF AND MINOR FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS THAT DON`T DRAIN
WELL. SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS WILL CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS TO 45
MPH AND FRQUENT LIGHTNING.

&&

.AVIATION...EARLY TSRA/SHRA OVER GNV. VCTS LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL TERMINALS. BRIEF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS ASSOCIATED
WITH AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. WIND WILL REMAIN SOUTHWESTERLY AWAY
FROM THE IMMEDIATE ATLANTIC COAST.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY DOWN TO AROUND 10 TO 15
KNOTS BY TONIGHT. A RIDGE SLIDES IN AND KEEPS WINDS SOUTHWESTERLY
THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FRONTS APPROACHES LATE IN THE PERIOD AND
BRINGS WITH IT A POSSIBLE RETURN TO CAUTIONARY LEVELS.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  95  75  95  74 /  30  20  40  20
SSI  88  77  90  78 /  40  30  30  20
JAX  90  76  92  74 /  60  30  40  20
SGJ  87  76  91  75 /  80  30  30  20
GNV  87  74  91  73 /  70  30  40  20
OCF  87  74  92  73 /  60  20  50  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

NELSON/CORDERO/GUILLET


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