050
FXUS62 KJAX 210223
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
923 PM EST Thu Nov 20 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Dense Fog Possible Late Tonight and Early Friday Morning.
  Areas Potentially Impacted: Southeast GA, I-95 & U.S.-301
  Corridors in Northeast & North Central FL. Additional Rounds
  of Morning Fog Likely at Inland Locations this Weekend.

- Near Record Warmth Continues at Inland Locations into Next
  Week.

- Extended Dry Spell Continues through Early Next Week. Severe
  to Extreme Drought Expanding Across Inland Southeast GA & the
  Suwannee Valley.

&&

.UPDATE...

Evening surface analysis depicts slowly weakening high pressure
(1019 millibars) centered along the FL Nature Coast, or just north
of Tampa Bay. Meanwhile, a weak frontal boundary has wedged
southward down the Carolina coast to the Savannah River Valley due
to another high pressure center (1023 millibars) positioned along
the Mid-Atlantic coast and New England. Aloft...stout ridging
extends across the southern Gulf and the FL peninsula. Otherwise, a
potent shortwave trough was becoming negatively tilted as it pivots
across the southern Rockies towards the southern Plains states.
Latest GOES-East derived Total Precipitable Water imagery indicates
that a seasonably dry airmass remains entrenched across our region,
with PWATs uniformly around 1 inch. Ridging over the Gulf and FL
peninsula was keeping deep west-northwesterly flow in place across
our region, with thin cirrus traversing inland southeast GA and fair
skies in place elsewhere. Temperatures and dewpoints at 02Z
generally ranged from the upper 50s to the mid 60s across our area.

Fair skies and diminishing winds will allow for temperatures and
dewpoints to fall to the 55-60 range overnight, setting the stage
for fog and low stratus clouds to expand across much of our region
by the predawn and early morning hours on Friday. HRRR and SREF
guidance both favor dense fog development after midnight initially
along the I-95 corridor in southeast GA, with dense fog then
gradually expanding south and southwestward across the rest of
southeast GA and then along the I-95 corridor in northeast FL by the
predawn hours. Dense fog and low stratus ceilings should reach the
U.S. Highway 301 corridor in northeast and north central FL. Deep
west-northwesterly flow should advect thin, high altitude cirrus
cloud cover over the Suwannee Valley and portions of inland
southeast GA by the predawn and early morning hours, which may
ultimately limit dense fog and low stratus cloud formation along the
I-75 corridor later tonight. However, patchy to areas of radiation
fog may still develop in these areas during the predawn and early
morning hours given the strongly subsident environment in place.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...

Weak high pressure ridge will be over the region Tonight. Dewpoints
over the coastal waters will rise to levels that will be at or above
the water temperature. This setup will lead to fog development after
sunset along the coast, with this fog spreading inland through the
night. Beach front communities could have low visibilities
beginning as early as sunset. Dense fog advisories may become
necessary, especially for coastal counties.

Lows will trend above seasonal averages Tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

High pressure over the area begins to shift away from the FL
peninsula on Friday as a frontal boundary begins to push towards the
southeastern CONUS. The frontal boundary pushes into the area
on Saturday.

Lingering fog along coastal locations will begin to lift and clear
by the mid morning hours on Friday. The persistent southwesterly
flow ahead of the front will continue to bring in moisture from the
and warmer temperatures across the area on Friday. There will be an
increase in cloud cover compared to the past couple of days. Friday
daytime highs will again reach into the low and mid 80s across
inland locations, while upper 70s along the coast as a weak sea
breeze develops during the afternoon hours. Overnight lows in the
mid to upper 50s across inland locations and the lower 60s along the
coast.

Another night of patchy to areas of fog will be in Friday night as
lingering moisture from the Gulf will allow for some fog to develop
along the I-75 corridor during the early predawn hours on Saturday,
with some locally dense fog. Southwest winds will steadily shift to
be northwesterly during the overnight hours into Sunday.  A similar
spread of daytime temperatures compared to Friday with highs in the
lower to mid 80s. With the cold front pushing through, overnight
lows will be cooler across SE GA locations with lows in the mid to
upper 50s and lows in the lower 60s across NE FL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

Frontal boundary will clear the area on Sunday. Winds shift to
become northeasterly behind the front. Highs on Sunday will mostly
be in the upper 70s for most locations, with lower 80s along the I-
75 corridor. The northeast to easterly onshore flow will shift to
become southwest-southerly during the start of the next week as high
pressure centered over the Carolinas extends south towards the
southeast CONUS. Guidance is indicating the next frontal boundary to
arrive towards the local area by midweek of the upcoming week as the
high pressure moves off towards the Atlantic sometime on Tuesday.
This front could bring some showers over SE GA and south towards
locations along the I-10 corridor in NE FL Wednesday morning.
Otherwise, fog development will continue to be of concern during the
upcoming week as moisture continues to be brought into the area due
to the southerly flow.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...

Dense fog and low stratus ceilings are expected to overspread SSI,
the Duval County terminals, and SGJ overnight through the predawn
hours on Friday. Confidence in ceiling and visibility impacts at GNV
remains low at this time, and we have thus indicated MVFR conditions
beginning around 09Z. MVFR visibilities at SSI will likely
deteriorate to IFR by 03Z and then LIFR by 05Z. Onset times at the
Duval County terminals and SGJ are less certain, with MVFR
conditions forecast to begin at VQQ after 03Z and at JAX, CRG, and
SGJ after 06Z. LIFR conditions should then prevail at these
terminals by 09Z. Fog and low stratus ceilings will then lift in the
13Z-15Z time frame on Friday morning, with VFR conditions expected
to prevail by 16Z. Light easterly surface winds early this evening
will diminish by midnight, followed by southwesterly winds
developing and increasing to around 5 knots as fog and stratus
ceilings lift towards 15Z.

&&

.MARINE...

Weakening high pressure will continue to shift slowly east-
southeastward across the Florida peninsula through Saturday. Dense
sea fog is expected to develop overnight across the Georgia waters,
with this fog potentially extending to the near shore waters
adjacent to northeast Florida on Friday morning before dissipating
by early afternoon. A weakening and mostly dry frontal boundary will
then push southward through the Georgia waters on Saturday night,
with this boundary pushing across the northeast FL waters early on
Sunday morning. High pressure will build eastward from the Ozarks on
Sunday towards the Mid-Atlantic states by Monday afternoon, with
breezy onshore winds developing across our local waters from Sunday
afternoon through Monday afternoon. A stronger cold front may then
push eastward across the southeastern states on Wednesday and
Wednesday night, with southerly winds expected to develop ahead of
this front beginning on Tuesday evening.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Persistent weather pattern of dry, warm temperatures, and
rising afternoon humidity into the upcoming weekend as the
drought continues. Lingering low level moisture from the Gulf
will continue to bring the potential for morning fog, with some
locations with dense fog. Poor afternoon dispersions will also
be in play as minimal surface and transport winds remain Friday
and Saturday.

Breezy southwesterly winds will start to increase with gusts up to
15 mph across southeast GA on Friday afternoon as a weak cold front
slowly approaches from the northwest. Breezy southwesterly winds
will spread across the entire area Saturday as the aforementioned
front pushes into and through the region overnight Saturday into
Sunday. Northeasterly winds behind the front Sunday will trend
easterly by Monday. Another cold front will pass through the area
during the middle of next week which may offer breezy winds and low
relative humidity in its wake.

&&

.CLIMATE...

Record High Temperatures through Saturday, November 22:

Friday, November 21:
KJAX: 84/1991
KGNV: 86/1973
KAMG: 83/2011
KCRG: 82/2004

Saturday, November 22:
KJAX: 84/1973
KGNV: 86/1906
KAMG: 83/2011
KCRG: 81/1997

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
AMG  56  82  58  81 /   0   0   0  10
SSI  60  77  59  79 /   0   0   0   0
JAX  57  82  57  83 /   0   0   0   0
SGJ  60  81  59  82 /   0   0   0   0
GNV  56  85  56  83 /   0   0   0   0
OCF  56  83  55  81 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$