146
FXUS62 KJAX 031413
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
913 AM EST Mon Nov 3 2025

...New UPDATE, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...

.KEY MESSAGES...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Minor Tidal Flooding along the Atlantic Coast & Portions of the
  St. Johns River Basin Begins Tuesday

- Moderate Rip Current Risk at the Northeast FL Beaches. High Risk
  Possible at the Northeast FL Beaches on Tuesday

- Small Craft Advisory for the Northeast FL Waters through Tonight

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 914 AM EST Mon Nov 3 2025

Morning surface analysis depicts strengthening high pressure (1028
millibars) building eastward towards the southeastern states from
the Ozarks and the lower Mississippi Valley. Meanwhile, a cold
front that pushed across our area overnight is now located across
south FL and the FL Keys. Aloft...a potent shortwave trough was
pivoting eastward along the Carolina coast, with ridging building
eastward along the northern Gulf coast from Texas. Latest GOES-
East derived Total Precipitable Water imagery indicates that a
much drier air mass has advected into our area in the wake of this
frontal passage, with PWATs falling below one half inch throughout
southeast GA and northeast FL, with values falling below 0.75
inches across north central FL. Wrap-around lower stratus clouds
have pushed over portions of the Ocmulgee and Alapaha Rivers in
southeast GA, generally for locations west of Baxley, Alma, and
Waycross. Fair skies prevail elsewhere, with temperatures in the
low to mid 50s for southeast GA and the northern Suwannee Valley,
while low to mid 60s prevail for the rest of northeast and north
central FL. Dewpoints at 14Z were mostly in the 40s across our
area, except 50-55 for north central and coastal northeast FL.

Lower stratus clouds will erode later this morning across inland
portions of southeast GA, with fair skies and a dry air mass
prevailing area-wide this afternoon. Plenty of sunshine will
counter cool air advection on the heels of a northerly breeze this
afternoon, boosting highs to the 70-75 degree range at most
locations.

High pressure will shift northward towards the southern
Appalachians tonight, keeping a tighter local pressure gradient
in place at coastal locations. Winds will mostly decouple at
inland locations overnight, allowing lows to fall to the low and
mid 40s, except upper 40s for portions of north central FL. A
northerly breeze will keep coastal lows mostly in the lower 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday through Wednesday night)
Issued at 110 AM EST Mon Nov 3 2025

Dry conditions will prevail through midweek as high pressure shifts
in from the west and becomes centered over the Carolinas after
the cold front pushes off towards the Atlantic. Northeasterly flow
develops across the area, with breezy conditions over the local
waters and towards coastal locations. Clearer skies will bring
warmer temperatures compared to Monday. Daytime highs in the mid
70s for most locations, while coastal locations in the upper 60s
to lower 70s as onshore northeast flow develops bringing in cooler
marine air. Tuesday evening, SE GA and northern Suwannee Valley
will have lows in the lower to mid 40s, while locations west of
the the St Johns River in the lower 50s and coastal locations in
the mid 50s to lower 60s.

The warming trend continues on Wednesday as daytime highs will
rise into the upper 70s for most inland locations, with the
warmest temperatures along north central FL counties, with
daytime highs in the lower 80s. Northeasterly onshore flow will
again bring cooler temperatures to coastal locations with daytime
highs around the mid 70s. Similar overnight temperatures to
Tuesday night with SE GA and northern Suwannee Valley in the mid
to upper 40s, with the rest of the area in the 50s with warmer
temps along the coast.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 110 AM EST Mon Nov 3 2025

Dry conditions continue past midweek as dry air remains overhead.
Mostly clear skies, becoming partly cloudy near the end of the
week, will allow for temperatures to reach into the the upper 70s
to lower 80s across most locations, while onshore flow will keep
coastal locations in the mid to upper 70s on Thursday and Friday.
Models are hinting at another cold front to push towards the SE
CONUS during the later part of the upcoming weekend into the
following week. Ahead of the front winds will shift to become
south-southwesterly on Friday, which would allow for some
moisture to move northward from the south, but precipitation
chances still remain low. Warmer temperatures on Saturday,
particularly for locations in north central FL which could see
highs reach into the mid 80s, while locations north of the I-10
corridor in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Winds shift to westerly
with slightly cooler temperatures on Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 637 AM EST Mon Nov 3 2025

VFR conditions will prevail at the regional terminals.
Northwesterly surface winds sustained at 5-10 knots will prevail
through around 16Z. Surface winds will then shift to northerly at
10-15 knots towards 17Z. Surface speeds will diminish to around 5
knots at the SSI and SGJ coastal terminals towards 00Z, with
speeds at the inland terminals decreasing to less 5 knots by 01Z
Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 914 AM EST Mon Nov 3 2025

High pressure will build into the southeastern states this
afternoon as a cold front shifts south of our local waters.
Northerly winds may strengthen to Small Craft Advisory levels of
near 20 knots later this morning across the northeast FL waters
before shifting to northeasterly and diminishing to Caution level
speeds of 15-20 knots overnight. Seas will build to 3-5 feet
today across the northeast FL waters, peaking at Caution levels of
4-6 feet tonight. Meanwhile, Caution level northerly wind speeds
of 15-20 knots across the Georgia waters this morning will
diminish this afternoon. Seas of 2-4 feet today and tonight will
build to 3-5 feet on Tuesday as winds become onshore.

High pressure will then shift eastward towards the Carolina coast
by Tuesday evening, with breezy northeasterly winds and elevated
seas expected to diminish throughout our local waters on Tuesday
night. Weakening high pressure is then expected to settle over our
local waters late this week ahead of an approaching cold front.
This front is slated to cross our local waters on Sunday, possibly
accompanied by widely scattered showers.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 914 AM EST Mon Nov 3 2025

Breezy north-northwesterly transport winds will shift to northerly
this afternoon. These winds will usher in a seasonably dry air
mass, with relative humidity values falling to the 30-35 percent
range at most inland locations this afternoon. Breezy transport
winds will create good daytime dispersion values at most locations
this afternoon. Surface and transport winds will shift to
northeasterly early on Tuesday morning, with breezy speeds
continuing across northeast and north central FL, where good
daytime dispersion values are again expected. Diminishing speeds
inland southeast GA will yield generally fair daytime dispersion
values. A seasonably dry air mass will persist across southeast GA
and the Suwannee Valley, where minimum relative humidity values
will again fall to the 30-35 percent range on Tuesday afternoon.
Transport winds will shift to southwesterly across southeast GA on
Wednesday, with easterly transport winds forecast for most of
northeast and north central FL. Continued light speeds will yield
fair daytime dispersion values at most locations, with pockets of
poor values for the Suwannee Valley and portions of southeast GA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 914 AM EST Mon Nov 3 2025

Wednesday`s "Supermoon" will result in gradually increasing tide
levels this week, mainly along the Atlantic coast. Guidance shows
the combination of breezy northeasterly winds and these rising
astronomical tides pushing water levels to near minor flooding
along the Atlantic coast and possibly for locations east of
downtown Jacksonville along the St Johns River during Tuesday
morning`s high tide. A coastal flood advisory may be required for
these locations. Current guidance suggests from downtown JAX
southward may escape minor flooding levels, but we will continue
to monitor water levels and guidance forecasts. Total water levels
may peak around the 1.5 to 2 foot range above Mean Higher High
Water (MHHW) during times of high tide along the Atlantic coast
and for portions of the St. Johns River east of downtown
Jacksonville on through at least the time of high tide on
Wednesday morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  70  42  73  42 /   0   0   0   0
SSI  70  51  69  57 /   0   0   0   0
JAX  71  46  74  52 /   0   0   0   0
SGJ  71  53  74  61 /   0   0   0   0
GNV  72  45  77  51 /   0   0   0   0
OCF  72  47  77  53 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM EST Tuesday for AMZ452-454-472-
     474.

&&

$$