925
FXUS62 KJAX 192355
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
655 PM EST Wed Nov 19 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Fog Possible Early on Thursday Morning Across Inland Southeast
  GA and the Interstate 75 Corridor in North Central FL. Higher
  Coverage of Morning Fog Possible Friday through the Weekend.

- Extended Dry Spell Continues. Be very cautious with outdoor
  flames and check for local burn bans. Severe to Extreme
  Drought Expanding Across Inland Southeast GA & the Suwannee
  Valley.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...

VFR conditions will prevail at the regional terminals through at
least 08Z Thursday. Confidence on low stratus and fog development
remains rather low during the predawn and early morning hours on
Thursday, with restrictions potentially remaining confined to the
west of the regional terminals, with a high altitude cirrus shield
potentially lingering through around sunrise across our area that
may prevent significant fog formation overnight. With this scenario
and uncertainty in mind, we indicated only a brief period of MVFR
visibilities around sunrise at VQQ and GNV for the 00Z TAF issuance,
with VFR conditions elsewhere. Confidence in this solution should
increase for the 06Z TAF issuance as trends in shorter term guidance
come into focus. VFR conditions should then prevail before 15Z
Thursday. Light southwest to southerly winds at the SSI and SGJ
coastal terminals overnight will shift to westerly towards 11Z and
then northwesterly by 15Z, with sustained speeds increasing to
around 5 knots. Light northwesterly surface winds will develop by
14Z elsewhere, followed by winds shifting to northerly around 5
knots by 17. Surface winds will shift to an onshore direction by
18Z, with speeds increasing to 5-10 knots through the afternoon
hours.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

Weak high pressure will be over the area Tonight, with a frontal
zone remaining to the north. Moisture is expected to advect off
the Gulf Tonight, leading to fog potential. The greatest chance
for any dense fog will be inland. Temperatures will trend above
normal Tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

Not a whole lot of change in the pattern will be expected
through the short term period as the region will be located
within the southwest periphery of a surface ridge as well as
above normal heights in the mid/upper levels. Very light south
to southwesterly wind will be almost variable at times for both
Thursday and Friday, and combined with the warmer temps than
normal over land will result in a modest sea breeze to develop
each day as well. Thursday will be mostly sunny with only a few
or scattered diurnal clouds thanks to the drier air still in
place. A general upward trend in mid and high clouds will be
expected for Friday, which will limit high temps just a little
bit. Highs Thursday will be generally in the low to mid 80s,
except for some upper 70s near the immediate coast. Similar but
a touch cooler Friday with more cloud cover with mid 80s likely
more scarce over the interior. Light southwest flow at the low
levels will persist just enough moisture for fog development to
be likely both Friday and Saturday Morning, especially over
southern areas and the I-75/Suwannee River Valley area thanks to
the flow off the Gulf.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

Weak surface ridging continues on Saturday before a weakening
cold front approaches on Saturday Night and moves across the
region through Sunday. Given both the rather lackluster dynamics
aloft as well as the current drought situation, looks as though
there will be little to any rainfall/convective potential with
this front at all. High pressure will build back in from the
north Monday behind the front before the associated high moves
off the Carolinas into the Atlantic Monday and into Tuesday. Our
next front approaches around Tuesday or Tuesday Night which
looks to bring our next "higher" chances for rainfall - albeit
the frontal system and therefore same chances for rain does not
look significant at this time. Temperatures above normal are
expected to continue overall through the long term.

&&

.MARINE...

High pressure ridging will prevail across the region through
Saturday, with a frontal zone to the north. A cold front will sink
south across area Saturday night into Sunday. A ridge of high
pressure will then prevail again early next week.

Rip Currents: SE GA Moderate through Thursday
              NE FL Low Today, Moderate Thursday

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Dry, warm weather and increasing humidity trends continue amid
the ongoing drought through the weekend, though no significant
fire weather "watch outs" are expected over the next few days.
Our main concern will be morning fog, which could be locally
dense, and poor afternoon dispersions due to minimal surface and
transport winds. Breezy southwesterly winds will start to
increase with gusts up to 15 mph on Friday as a weak cold front
slowly approaches from the northwest. That front will pass
through Saturday night and Sunday with minimal showers if any at
all.

&&


.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$