314
FXUS62 KJAX 011138
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
738 AM EDT Wed Oct 1 2025

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Dangerous Beach & Marine Conditions Continue through the. High
  Risk of Rip Currents, High Surf & Small Craft Advisories Remain
  in Effect

- Minor to Moderate Coastal Flooding Through the Weekend. Today:
  St. Johns River Basin, NE FL Coast and Intracoastal Waterways
  South of. Expands to SE GA and NE FL coasts and the whole St
  Johns River Basin

- Showers & TStorms Increase from Thursday through Monday.
  Multiple Rounds of Heavy Downpours and Isolated Embedded
  Thunderstorms. Localized Flooding Possible at Coastal and Low-
  lying Locations

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 726 AM EDT Wed Oct 1 2025

No changes to ongoing forecast as awaiting surge of NE winds this
afternoon with just a slight chance of showers across NE FL
through the day. Sustained winds will increase to 15-25 mph along
the Atlantic coast and continue tonight with peak winds of 30-40
mph and will need to monitor for potential Wind Advisory if peak
winds exceed 40 mph at times tonight. Over inland areas winds
become breezy around 15 mph with gusts to 25-30 mph this
afternoon, but will decrease to 5-10 mph tonight. Max temps closer
to normal values today for early October with mid/upper 80s inland
and lower 80s along the Atlantic Coastal areas.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today through Tonight)
Issued at 200 AM EDT Wed Oct 1 2025

The area will be between Hurricane Imelda well off the coast of the
SE US lifting northeastward toward Bermuda and strong high
pressure over Hudson Bay building southeastward into New England.
This will maintain the tight pressure gradient and coastal
troughing over the area resulting in breezy north-northeasterly
winds. Drier airmass continues to advect southward across the
region with PWATs below 1.5 inches inland to around 1.6 inches
closer to the coast. With the drier air and subsidence, convection
will be limited to over the coastal waters today with a few
sprinkles developing inland. Due to winds shifting to becoming
more onshore, low-level moisture gradually increases along the NE
FL coast tonight. A few coastal showers and embedded thunderstorms
developing in the convergent low level northeasterly flow will
shift onshore later tonight mainly south of St. Augustine.
Temperatures will be around seasonable with highs ranging from the
low 80s along the coast to the mid-upper 80s further inland and
overnight lows in the low 60s inland SE GA to the low 70s along
the coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Thursday through Friday night)
Issued at 200 AM EDT Wed Oct 1 2025

A stronger northeast flow expected to prevail this period. A
strong high pressure ridge will take hold over the NE U.S at about
1034 mb with a long fetch of northeast winds expected along/offshore
the eastern seaboard. The ridge axis extends from the high over
the NE into the deep southeast CONUS, which will shift slowly
south through Friday night. An inverted coastal trough, oriented
southwest to northeast, is likely develop off the southeast U.S.
coast which will help form scattered and numerous showers over the
area waters. Mainly scattered shower activity on Thursday for
northeast FL and then we see increased coverage of scattered
activity into Thursday night into coastal southeast GA. Scattered
to numerous showers and some isolated t-storm for Friday,
including inland northeast FL and parts of southeast GA. Far
inland southeast GA should remain generally dry along a line
from Pearson to Alma and Baxley northwestward. Scattered shower
activity stays in place for the coastal areas and St Johns River
Basin into Friday night.

In addition to some heavy downpours in some of the shower activity,
breezy northeast winds of 15-25 mph are expected for the coastal
areas, with gusts 30-35 mph. Can`t rule out 40-45 mph gusts. Thus,
it`s possible we may need a wind advisory for the coastal areas
on Thursday and possibly on Friday.

Temperatures will trend near to a little below normal this period
with highs around 80 or lower 80s east or northeast zones, but
mid 80s possible toward the I-75 corridor in northeast FL. With
the onshore flow, overnight lows stay steady in the mid 70s coast,
but 70 deg and lower to mid 60s well inland.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 200 AM EDT Wed Oct 1 2025

Strong high pressure remains north of the area over the Mid Atlantic
and models agree that it will shift offshore of the east coast by
Sunday night. Broad low pressure in the Gulf drifts north while a
pseudo-style warm frontal boundary lifts slowly north from southern
FL. Meanwhile, a moist feed off the Atlantic continues and
courtesy of east or east-southeast 15-25 kt surface flow. Models
show moist air with PWATs of 1.5 to 2 inches, and warm cloud depths
in the range of about 12-13.5 kft. This pattern should result in
unsettled weather with multiple rounds of showers and potential
scattered thunderstorms, though the instability is not too great
so t-storm activity will be a minimum to some degree. The rounds
of rainfall will help escalate the flooding rainfall threat and
for now we have a marginal risk of excessive rainfall per WPC with
the most likely area along the coastal areas, but maybe as far as
the Highway 301 area.

Regarding the rainfall forecast over the coastal areas through
Tuesday, model guidance has not changed appreciably, if anything
just a slight uptick or status quo in rainfall amounts. Preliminary
forecast rainfall amounts of 3-5 inches are possible, with 1-3
inches inland. Localized higher amounts to about 6 inches possible
for the coast. This would certainly cause some minor flooding
concerns especially for urban areas and poor drainage. Probability
of about 3 inches or more for the coastal areas for Saturday
morning through Tuesday morning is still progged to be in the
20-30 percent range.

Breezy easterly winds expected along coastal areas Friday through
Sunday with gusts up to about 30-35 mph possible, locally higher
in heavier shower activity.

Highs in the lower to mid 80s are forecast and lows from upper
60s to lower to mid 70s. Possible the highs will be more muted due
to clouds and precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 726 AM EDT Wed Oct 1 2025

Band of lower MVFR CIGS around 2500 ft hugging the Atlantic
Coastal terminals of SSI/CRG/SGJ this morning for a few hours,
otherwise VFR conds at inland terminals. Next surge of NE winds is
expected today which should lift conds back to VFR at all
terminals as NE winds increase to 10-15G20-25 knots in the 16-18Z
time frame. Rainfall chances remain too low for any inclusion at
terminals today, but as breezy NE winds continue tonight for the
coastal areas, have added a VCSH at CRG, while adding a PROB30
group at SGJ for potential MVFR CIGS/VSBYS from onshore moving
shower activity late in the TAF period. Winds decrease at inland
TAF sites after sunset tonight, but expect to remain VFR as still
likely too much wind for any significant fog formation.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 200 AM EDT Wed Oct 1 2025

Small Craft Advisory conditions with strong north-northeasterly
winds and elevated seas will persist across the coastal waters
through the upcoming weekend and into next week, along with
occasional wind gusts to Gale Force. As Hurricane Imelda
accelerates east-northeastward towards Bermuda, strong high
pressure builds southeastward and wedges down into the
southeastern seaboard today into Thursday. Coastal troughing will
sharpen over our local waters late this week, generating
increasing chances for showers and embedded thunderstorms
beginning on Thursday. Winds will shift to easterly by Friday and
the weekend as high pressure shifts offshore of the Mid-Atlantic
states.

Rip currents: Rough seas and high wind waves will maintain
high rip current risk today and continuing through much of the
week.

Surf: Surf continues to reach toward the 6-9 foot range through
the week. Surf will be slow to subside this week.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 200 AM EDT Wed Oct 1 2025

Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect for the St. Johns River basin
south of downtown Jacksonville and coastal St. Johns and Flagler
Counties. Minor coastal flooding was observed in these areas in
the past high tide cycle and is expected to continue over the next
couple of high tide cycles. Coastal flooding potential becomes
more widespread and possibly significant Thursday into the weekend
as winds become east-northeasterly, lingering high seas and the
approaching full moon cycle. The latest PETSS guidance is suggesting
the potential for Moderate flooding bringing higher confidence
for water levels reaching around 2 ft above Mean Higher High Water
(MHHW) in the St. Johns River Basin and into the 2 to 2.5 ft MHHW
along the Atlantic beach front locations. Coastal Flood Watches
may be needed for late this week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  85  63  81  62 /  10   0   0  10
SSI  80  71  79  70 /  10  10  20  50
JAX  83  70  82  68 /  20  20  30  40
SGJ  83  73  82  71 /  20  40  50  60
GNV  88  70  85  67 /  20  20  20  20
OCF  88  70  85  70 /  20  20  30  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Saturday night for FLZ124-125-
     138-233-333.

     High Surf Advisory until 5 AM EDT Sunday for FLZ124-125-138-233-
     333.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 AM EDT Friday for FLZ132-137-138-
     233-325-333-633.

GA...High Rip Current Risk through late Saturday night for GAZ154-166.

     High Surf Advisory until 5 AM EDT Sunday for GAZ154-166.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Sunday for AMZ450-452-454-
     470-472-474.

&&

$$