578
FXUS62 KJAX 091611
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
1111 AM EST Tue Dec 9 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Freeze Warnings & Frost Advisories Overnight though Early
  Wednesday. Freeze Warning Areas: Inland Southeast GA. Frost
  Advisory Areas: Suwannee Valley & Portions of Inland Northeast
  FL. Widespread Frost Expected in the Freeze Warning & Frost
  Advisory Areas

- Small Craft Advisory Conditions Offshore Wednesday Night.

- High Risk for Rip Currents at the Northeast FL Beaches Today.
  Moderate Risk at the Southeast GA Beaches

&&

.UPDATE...

Late morning surface analysis depicts high pressure (1027 millibars)
centered over the Delmarva peninsula and extending its axis
southwestward across the Tennessee and lower Mississippi Valleys.
Aloft...broad troughing remains in place across the eastern half of
the nation, with a moisture-starved shortwave embedded within this
longwave trough currently traversing the Ohio, Tennessee, and lower
Mississippi Valleys. Surface ridging wedging down the southeastern
seaboard and weak coastal troughing situated over our near shore
Atlantic waters helped to advect a deck of low stratus clouds
southwestward across southeast GA and portions of northeast FL this
morning. Fair skies prevail elsewhere across most of the Suwannee
Valley and north central FL. The seasonably low sun angle was only
allowing for a slow erosion of this stratus deck, with additional
marine stratocumulus cloud cover being generated by weak coastal
troughing also advecting onshore along the I-95 corridor.
Temperatures beneath the stratus deck were still in the lower to mid
40s across inland southeast GA as of 16Z, with upper 40s and lower
50s elsewhere inland. Breezy onshore winds have kept temperatures in
the 50s at coastal locations, with plenty of sunshine allowing
values to climb to 55-60 across north central FL. Dewpoints ranged
from the mid 30s across inland southeast GA to the low and mid 40s
elsewhere.

High pressure centered to the north of our region will slowly weaken
this afternoon as it continues to wedge down the southeastern
seaboard. This feature will keep a tight local pressure gradient in
place along the I-95 corridor through mid-afternoon, keeping breezy
north-northeasterly winds in place at coastal locations. The low
stratus deck extending from inland southeast GA to portions of
inland northeast FL will gradually lift and erode, with marine
stratocumulus continuing to advect onshore over the coastal counties
and southern portions of the St. Johns River basin this afternoon.
Highs will only reach the low and mid 50s this afternoon across
southeast GA and along the I-10 corridor in the Suwannee Valley and
northeast FL, ranging to the lower 60s across north central FL.

High pressure will continue to weaken and will settle directly over
our area overnight, setting up radiational cooling at inland
locations. A light freeze is expected across inland southeast GA,
with frost extending to coastal portions of southeast GA and along
the Interstate 10 corridor in the Suwannee Valley and inland
portions of northeast FL. Frost advisories have been issued for
these locations, with a freeze warning maintained for all of inland
southeast GA, where lows will fall to the upper 20s and lower 30s.
Weakening coastal troughing over our local waters will likely
maintain a weak northwesterly breeze along the I-95 corridor,
keeping lows in the 40s at coastal locations in northeast FL as well
as for most of north central FL.


&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

Cooler than normal temperatures continue Wednesday and Thursday with
high pressure overhead Wednesday, and a weak cold front moving
through the area on Thursday morning. Highs Wednesday will be in the
60s area-wide after a cold and frosty morning, with sunny skies and
westerly winds. Overnight, lows will fall into the upper 30s for
inland southeast Georgia and 40s elsewhere, not quite cold enough
for frost. Thursday will be a bit cooler after the frontal passage,
with highs ranging from the mid 50s near inland southeast Georgia,
to mid 60s for north central Florida with northwest winds continuing
to bring in cooler and drier air. Lows Thursday night will flirt
with touching freezing in southeast Georgia, with patchy frost
likely.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

Dry conditions continue through the weekend, despite a front moving
through the area on Sunday. Temperatures will mainly be in the 60s
again Friday, before a nice warmup this weekend. Saturday and Sunday
highs will be in the low 70s for southeast Georgia and mid to upper
70s for northeast Florida with mostly sunny skies. Monday will be
much cooler following the dry cold frontal passage on Sunday,
leaving temperatures in the 50s for southeast Georgia and 60s for
northeast Florida with breezy northeasterly winds as the pressure
gradient tightens. Lows Sunday and Monday nights will dip into the
mid 30s over inland southeast Georgia, but likely too windy
overnight for frost formation at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...

MVFR cigs around 1500-3000 ft are expected to affect SGJ, CRG, and
SSI through the afternoon and evening, though the predominant
category remains VFR. Additional periods of MVFR cigs are possible
for JAX and VQQ between 12z and 15z and possible again later after
18z. GNV will likely stay VFR through the TAF period. Sfc winds will
favor a north to northeast component today, increasing to 8-12 kts,
with occasional gusts approaching 15-20 kts at SGJ and CRG.

&&

.MARINE...

High pressure centered near the Delmarva region will wedge down
the southeastern seaboard through this afternoon, creating
breezy north northeasterly winds and elevated seas across our
local waters. This high pressure center will weaken as it shifts
southward over our local waters tonight and Wednesday morning,
allowing for winds to briefly subside. Westerly winds will then
strengthen on Wednesday afternoon and evening ahead of an
approaching dry frontal boundary, with Small Craft Advisory
conditions possible offshore on Wednesday night. This front will
cross our region late Wednesday night, followed by another high
pressure center building over our region on Thursday and
Friday. This high pressure center will then shift offshore by
early Saturday ahead of the next frontal boundary that will
approach our local waters from the northwest on Sunday afternoon
and evening.

Rip Currents: Southeast GA Moderate this Afternoon and Wednesday
Northeast FL: High this Afternoon, Moderate on Wednesday

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Good dispersion is expected on Wednesday ahead of an incoming dry
cold front that will pass through overnight. Thursday winds will
shift to northwesterly behind the front with fair to good dispersion
forecast. Min RH Thursday and Friday will dip into the 30s, with
values improving this weekend. Light and variable winds Friday will
leave poor dispersion with patchy low values near north central
Florida and the Atlantic coast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  28  62  39  59 /   0   0   0   0
SSI  38  64  45  62 /   0   0   0   0
JAX  37  68  43  65 /   0   0   0   0
SGJ  47  69  48  65 /   0   0   0   0
GNV  38  69  45  67 /   0   0   0   0
OCF  44  69  46  68 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 8 AM EST Wednesday for FLZ021-023-
     030-120-220-322-422-522.
     High Risk for Rip Currents through late tonight for FLZ124-125-138-
     233-333.
GA...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 8 AM EST Wednesday for GAZ132>136-
     149-151>153-162-163-165-250-264-350-364.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$