805
FXUS63 KJKL 162035 CCA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
335 PM EST Sun Nov 16 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cool and dry air persists through Monday, with a milder and more
  moist air mass returning by midweek.

- Multiple weather systems should bring rain at times beginning
  Tuesday and extending through the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 332 PM EST SUN NOV 16 2025

Surface high pressure centered near IA late today is building
southeast toward our area, but our winds behind a cold front
remain gusty this afternoon until mixing abates and the pressure
gradient eventually weakens tonight. The high will pass over
during the day Monday, giving light winds and another day of fair
weather.

High clouds spilling over an upper level ridge to our west may
begin to show up before the day is done on Monday, with clouds
then lowering and thickening on Monday night. These clouds are the
precursor of the next system that will affect the area. An upper
low currently over the Great Basin will be booted eastward ahead
of a large system moving onshore in CA. As it progresses east, it
will pick up a lee surface low over CO, with the system reaching
the mid Mississippi Valley by dawn on Tuesday. Low level flow
ahead of it will pull gulf moisture north and northeast,
overrunning a surface warm front which will still be to our
southwest through Monday night. However, the isentropic lift will
result in showers developing at least over western KY, and
possibly reaching eastern KY toward dawn Tuesday.

As winds weaken tonight and cold air advection eases, decoupling
should eventually occur, especially in valleys. With dry air and
clear skies in place, this should allow for a large temperature
drop in valleys. With little temperature advection on Monday,
warming will be due entirely to insolation, but with nearly full
sun it will be appreciable. Will look for good cooling conditions
initially on Monday night, but increasing clouds should eventually
cut into radiating, with a small temperature rebound before dawn.
Still forecasting readings to rise above freezing before any rain
from the next weather system arrives, but it will be watched.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 259 PM EST SUN NOV 16 2025

Tuesday morning, showers will continue to overspread Eastern
Kentucky as a warm front progresses into the area from the
southwest. Warm air will advect in through the day ahead of a mid-
level disturbance. Models depict a modest low level jet of 50 kts
passing through the area Tuesday evening. With model MUCAPE around
400 J/kg and sufficient bulk shear, some evening thunderstorms are
certainly possible. At current the better environment remains across
Western and portions of Central Kentucky.

Wednesday, a ridge tries to build into the area, however an embedded
shortwave will provide another chances of showers. A chance of
thunderstorms returns Wednesday evening into the overnight.

Thursday, a larger system develops over the center of the country
and ushers deeper moisture northwards from the Gulf up the
Mississippi River Valley. A warm front will push north of the area
associated with this larger system, providing another day of shower
chances.

Model spread begins to increase beyond Thursday and with it
uncertainty. However, at current heading into Friday a cold front
looks to cross the area either later in the day or early Saturday.
Rain chances tapper off Saturday.

After the larger mid-level system comes out of the Four-Corners
region in the Southwest U.S., the GFS has it progressing eastward
into the Tennessee region by Saturday and moving east of the area by
Sunday, which would lead to a quieter, likely dry day across
Eastern Kentucky. However the European model has the same system
moving off to the Great Lakes Region. While this sounds good and
all, the European is also more aggressive with the system behind
that one, taking it into the deep south, tapping into moisture from
the Gulf, on Saturday, and progressing northeast into the Mid-
Mississippi-Valley Sunday, leading to more showers across Eastern
Kentucky. A further illustration of model spread later in the long-
term period.

As far as a temperature outlook through the extended, temperatures
increase each day from the upper 50s to mid 60s on Tuesday, reaching
the upper 60s to low 70s by Friday. Temperatures remain above average
next Saturday and Sunday, returning into the upper 50s to mid 60s.
Temperatures generally cool each evening into the 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM EST SUN NOV 16 2025

VFR conditions are forecast through the period, with mainly clear
skies. West northwest winds will gust around 20 kts this
afternoon, but will become light tonight.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...CMC
AVIATION...HAL