Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY
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805 FXUS63 KJKL 162035 CCA AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED National Weather Service Jackson KY 335 PM EST Sun Nov 16 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Cool and dry air persists through Monday, with a milder and more moist air mass returning by midweek. - Multiple weather systems should bring rain at times beginning Tuesday and extending through the week. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night) Issued at 332 PM EST SUN NOV 16 2025 Surface high pressure centered near IA late today is building southeast toward our area, but our winds behind a cold front remain gusty this afternoon until mixing abates and the pressure gradient eventually weakens tonight. The high will pass over during the day Monday, giving light winds and another day of fair weather. High clouds spilling over an upper level ridge to our west may begin to show up before the day is done on Monday, with clouds then lowering and thickening on Monday night. These clouds are the precursor of the next system that will affect the area. An upper low currently over the Great Basin will be booted eastward ahead of a large system moving onshore in CA. As it progresses east, it will pick up a lee surface low over CO, with the system reaching the mid Mississippi Valley by dawn on Tuesday. Low level flow ahead of it will pull gulf moisture north and northeast, overrunning a surface warm front which will still be to our southwest through Monday night. However, the isentropic lift will result in showers developing at least over western KY, and possibly reaching eastern KY toward dawn Tuesday. As winds weaken tonight and cold air advection eases, decoupling should eventually occur, especially in valleys. With dry air and clear skies in place, this should allow for a large temperature drop in valleys. With little temperature advection on Monday, warming will be due entirely to insolation, but with nearly full sun it will be appreciable. Will look for good cooling conditions initially on Monday night, but increasing clouds should eventually cut into radiating, with a small temperature rebound before dawn. Still forecasting readings to rise above freezing before any rain from the next weather system arrives, but it will be watched. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 259 PM EST SUN NOV 16 2025 Tuesday morning, showers will continue to overspread Eastern Kentucky as a warm front progresses into the area from the southwest. Warm air will advect in through the day ahead of a mid- level disturbance. Models depict a modest low level jet of 50 kts passing through the area Tuesday evening. With model MUCAPE around 400 J/kg and sufficient bulk shear, some evening thunderstorms are certainly possible. At current the better environment remains across Western and portions of Central Kentucky. Wednesday, a ridge tries to build into the area, however an embedded shortwave will provide another chances of showers. A chance of thunderstorms returns Wednesday evening into the overnight. Thursday, a larger system develops over the center of the country and ushers deeper moisture northwards from the Gulf up the Mississippi River Valley. A warm front will push north of the area associated with this larger system, providing another day of shower chances. Model spread begins to increase beyond Thursday and with it uncertainty. However, at current heading into Friday a cold front looks to cross the area either later in the day or early Saturday. Rain chances tapper off Saturday. After the larger mid-level system comes out of the Four-Corners region in the Southwest U.S., the GFS has it progressing eastward into the Tennessee region by Saturday and moving east of the area by Sunday, which would lead to a quieter, likely dry day across Eastern Kentucky. However the European model has the same system moving off to the Great Lakes Region. While this sounds good and all, the European is also more aggressive with the system behind that one, taking it into the deep south, tapping into moisture from the Gulf, on Saturday, and progressing northeast into the Mid- Mississippi-Valley Sunday, leading to more showers across Eastern Kentucky. A further illustration of model spread later in the long- term period. As far as a temperature outlook through the extended, temperatures increase each day from the upper 50s to mid 60s on Tuesday, reaching the upper 60s to low 70s by Friday. Temperatures remain above average next Saturday and Sunday, returning into the upper 50s to mid 60s. Temperatures generally cool each evening into the 50s. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon) ISSUED AT 1232 PM EST SUN NOV 16 2025 VFR conditions are forecast through the period, with mainly clear skies. West northwest winds will gust around 20 kts this afternoon, but will become light tonight. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...HAL LONG TERM...CMC AVIATION...HAL