716
FXUS63 KJKL 152335
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
635 PM EST Sat Nov 15 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- It will be breezy and mild ahead of a cold front today. Gusts up
  to 30 mph from the southwest this afternoon, mainly for
  locations west of I-75 and near the Bluegrass Region.

- Look for a band of scattered to numerous showers to cross the
  area with cold frontal passage tonight. A thunderstorm is
  possible in the east.

- Cooler and much drier air arrives for Sunday and Monday.

- Multiple weather systems could bring rain at times next week
  starting late Monday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 250 PM EST SAT NOV 15 2025

The afternoon surface analysis shows high pressure parked off to the
southeast toward Florida. There is a low pressure pushing across the
Great Lakes and the attendant cold front is stretching southwest
into parts of the Midwest. This is leaving the area in a
tightened pressure gradient and therefore some gusty winds mainly
in the 25-30 mph range this afternoon. This as a increased 850mb
jet pushes across part of the Ohio Valley. The limiting mixing
potential has mostly be a result of the increased low level cloud
cover across much of eastern Kentucky.

There is good agreement in the guidance that the previously
mentioned cold front will push into and across the Ohio Valley
later tonight into Sunday morning. There is enough lift and
convergence with this synoptic feature to ignite a few rain
showers and even a rumble of thunder. There will also be some mid-
level forcing help, as a notable wave will ride through the flow
in conjunction with the surface feature. Given this leaned toward
some of the short term guidance for PoPs and this will give way to
a 50-90 percent chance of rain across the CWA tonight. These
could be gusty showers, but then also think there could be some
decent winds in the higher terrain. Given this leaned toward the
90th percentile for winds in our highest terrain near the Virginia
border. Overall QPE amounts will be light, with most locations
seeing less than a tenth of inch of total QPE. The NBM shows
around a 20 percent chance of seeing a 0.10 of an inch in Somerset
to around 70 percent in Pikeville for reference of PoPs and
amounts.

Sunday, There is good agreement on high pressure nosing in from the
northwest across the Upper Plains in the wake of the cold front.
This will usher in drier and cooler weather for Sunday, with
afternoon highs in the mid to upper 50s. Which is closer to normal
for this time of year across eastern Kentucky. Then Sunday night,
we become more entrenched with the surface high starting to crest
across the Lower Ohio Valley. The afternoon dewpoints drop into
the low to mid 20s on Sunday. This dry air and calm conditions
will lead to notable ridge/valley splits across eastern Kentucky.
This as valleys will see lows in the upper 20 to lower 30s and
lower 30s on the ridges. Given this leaned toward the 5th
percentile of the NBM and colder to the COOP MOS for lows to
better match what will be seen at some of the colder mesonet
locations.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 339 PM EST SAT NOV 15 2025

Considering that an active long term period is in store, the ECMWF
and GFS are in reasonably good agreement for the big picture. The
period will start with a large, deep, mature low pressure system
centered over the Canadian maritimes and upper level ridging over
the middle of the CONUS. At the surface, high pressure will be
centered near the JKL forecast area. The pattern will be
progressive, with the surface high slipping to our east late
Monday or Monday evening. A shortwave aloft near the central
Rockies will dampen as it heads east across the ridge through mid
week. It will pick up a lee surface low over CO and bring it east
to the Ohio Valley by Tuesday evening. As it approaches, a warm
front with gulf moisture will be pulled north and northeast.
Overrunning moisture will bring a potential for rain in our area
by dawn on Tuesday. Monday night will start with light winds and
decent radiating conditions, with most valleys probably falling to
near or a little below freezing during the night. At this time,
the forecast calls for temps to rise slightly with the arrival of
clouds, with temperatures above freezing before rain arrives.
However, the scenario will continue to be monitored.

The warm front is expected to make it north to KY on Tuesday.
However, with the departure of the shortwave and transition of
the surface low offshore, the front will lose momentum and stall
in the vicinity of the Ohio Valley. This will keep a possibility
of rain in the forecast, especially as any minor waves aloft pass
over. At this time, the most probable time for a wave is
Wednesday or Wednesday night.

Meanwhile, a more substantial system will be lurking upstream. An
upper level trough currently well offshore of the West Coast is
expected to close off a large upper low near southern CA on
Tuesday, with that low then getting kicked out to the east
northeast as another upper level system heads for CA. The ejecting
upper low should support surface low development over the
southern plains on Thursday, with the low then tracking to the
lower Great Lakes by Friday night. This pulls the stalled frontal
boundary north of KY initially. A renewed moisture plume off the
gulf arrives Friday ahead of a dry punch wrapping into the system.
As the low departs to the northeast, the trailing cold front
probably passes on Saturday, but by then moisture/precip looks
much more limited.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
ISSUED AT 635 PM EST SAT NOV 15 2025

VFR conditions are prevailing across all TAF sites with this
issuance. Gusty southwest winds are also prevailing at this time.
However, over the next couple of hours, CIGS will begin to lower
as a cold front dives southeast through the region. Gusty showers
are forecast from 02Z through 08Z with frontal passage.
Categorical MVFR will be likely with frontal passage window but
once the front passes, terminals are forecast to quickly improve
to VFR. Winds won`t diminish much behind the front but will shift
to the northwest and remain breezy through the rest of the period.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DJ
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...VORST